Stats article reference library main page
Eric T.
November 01 2012 08:07AM
Over the last five or six years, statistical analysis of hockey has taken big steps forward. The number of writers and sites contributing to our understanding has grown substantially, which is great. But the downside is that the work is scattered all over the web, and just finding it all can be a major challenge.
At NHL Numbers, we are going to maintain a reference library of articles that have advanced our understanding of the game in some small way.
What goes in? The focus in the library will be on the general over the specific, the theoretical over the applied. So an article on how the stats show that Jack Johnson isn't as good as some people think probably wouldn't be included, but an article that sought to demonstrate what attributes lead to a defenseman being overvalued probably would be. If an analytical article provides insight that is generally applicable across the league, it probably belongs in the library.
How is the library maintained? To get things started, a few of the NHL Numbers writers dug through some of the prominent sources of analysis and collected articles. I culled the list, trying to include things that met the generality standard. There are undoubtedly holes, and there's new stuff coming out every day, so we will rely on your assistance -- contact me on Twitter (@BSH_EricT) or via email (bsh.erict -at- gmail) with suggestions of articles you think might belong.
Where do I find the articles? This page will be the main index. Here, you can find the list of topics; each one is (or will soon be) a link to a list of articles that fit that topic -- articles may be cross-posted in multiple categories, as needed.
- The Essentials (coming soon): The most-cited, most influential articles in hockey analysis
- Player usage: Quality of competition, zone starts, etc
- Goalies: What we know about goaltending
- Prospects: Historical trends, league translations
- Variance and regression: The role of random chance
- Shot quality (coming soon): How skaters drive shooting and save percentage
- Valuation (coming soon): The factors that determine a player's worth
- Team-level predictions (coming soon): The best tools for predicting future wins
- Tracking projects (coming soon): Scoring chances, zone entries, touches, etc
- Draft (coming soon): How to value draft picks
- Miscellaneous (coming soon): A variety of uncategorized articles
Good job on the first category, player usage and thanks for undertaking this project. I think it is important and a valuable resource for both newcomers to hockey analytics (and I frequently get e-mails with "where do I start" questions) as well as those of us who have been doing this for a while and may need a refresher or may have missed a few.
Not sure what your plans are once you get your lists of articles complete but it may also be useful developing a "current best practices" guide. For example, for player usage, what are the current best practices to account for quality of competition/teammates, zone starts, etc. If multiple methods are appropriate, what are the benefits of one method over the other and when might we want to chose one over the other. It would act like a "Cliff Notes" version of all of the articles in the list which will address @draglikepull's 'unwieldy' comment.
@David Johnson
An introduction/primer is definitely in our plans for NHL Numbers.
Another component of the library project will be review articles analogous to what's in the scientific literature, and I think it'll be a lot like what you describe -- talking through what's been done and why, where there are opportunities for further exploration, etc. I'll be kicking that series off next week with a review of zone start adjustments.