TRADING THE PICK

Lowetide
April 28 2012 01:38PM

Trading draft picks started BEFORE the beginning of the universal draft  in 1969. It was, for the most part, a failed experiment.

This is Sam Pollock. He rarely lost a trade, owing to access and attention to detail. One of the very few deals he "lost" came about because of waiver worries. The winner of the trade explains:

  • Bill Torrey: "My organization-building philosophy is to build from within. The only draft choice I gave away (with NYI) was to Sam Pollock, when I took a little goalie from Muskegon (in the old IHL)--number four on his depth chart--Chico Resch for a draft pick. It was the only draft pick I gave up early on in the history of the Islanders. Fortunately, he was a good one."

Early in the expansion era--this would be 1967 through about 1975--the new teams had very little in terms of assets. The established clubs would take their first and second round picks in exchange for older veterans who were close to being a spent force. Terrible deals, but what are you going to do when the owner wants a winner in Oakland and you need a scoring left winger?

It was awful, made the NHL a two tiered league and took forever to level the playing field. Nowadays, the draft picks--especially the first rounders--are held tightly and rarely sent away without a similar draft pick (and something extra) coming back in return.

IF the Oilers decided to deal their pick, where would it go?

BRIGHT LIGHTS, BIG CITY!

If we're discussing the possibility of another General Manager having a big enough ego and enough creativity to make something happen, we should begin with Brian Burke. The man with elan has engineered some incredible draft moments, the biggest being the Sedin draft of 1999 in which Burke acted like an orchestra conductor in convincing the other men at the top of the draft to give him the two best players available.

Burke does have some nice things to pass along to Edmonton:

  1. 5th overall pick
  2. NHL defensemen in a variety of price ranges, from a lovely Urban satchel courtesy Louie Vuitton (Phaneuf) to a fetching gold faux leather item from a Music City shopping spree (Cody Franson) and everything in between.
  3. Expensive but perhaps undervalued wingers who could fill important roles on the team (Nikolai Kulemin).

Now, before we go any deeper into this, a couple of things. I am in no way suggesting EDM trades the number one overall pick or suggesting they do business with Toronto. This is more of a blue sky, "what if" discussion. Second, I'm not saying the deal would be 1st overall for #5, Phaneuf and Kulemin.

We're just talking over a Glenfiddich. A little early in the day but we're sophisticated enough to pull it off.

BEAUTY IS IN THE EYE OF THE BEHOLDER

I don't for a minute  believe that the Edmonton Oilers will deal for Dion Phaneuf, but Carl Gunnarson might be a player of interest and I strongly suspect the organization believes they could make things simpler for Luke Schenn and allow him to establish himself as a quality NHL: defender.

The big question I have is "how much do the Oilers value Ryan Murray?" and then a followup being "is Griffin Reinhart close enough to Murray for the Oilers to risk moving to #5?"

Should the Oilers believe Reinhart can provide the kind of blue they'd like to see rolling out over the next decade or more, then this deal (whatever it might look like) probably has some chance of happening.

If we estimate the top 5 with Edmonton at 5th and TOR at #1, it might go like this:

  • TOR: NAIL YAKUPOV
  • CBS: RYAN MURRAY
  • MON: MIKHAIL GRIGORENKO
  • NYI:  FILIP FORSBERG
  • EDM: GRIFFIN REINHART

How much would Toronto have to give up to make the difference in draft pick attractive to Edmonton? Schenn & Kulemin? Gunnarson and ????

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

My guess is that the Oilers want to walk out of this draft with an impact player, either Yakupov or Murray. Could they move down from one, draft Murray and add a legit top 4D?  My guess: that is something close to the ideal scenario for Edmonton. I don't think Toronto lines up well with the Oilers, unless Burke can move up from 5 to given Edmonton a sure fire way to "get their guy."

Up next: the Habs.

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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#51 DSF
April 28 2012, 07:47PM
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Weasel Wellwood wrote:

As you opined, LT, Toronto doesn't seem to line up well. And while I agree that Wilson did Schenn no favours, I don't see the player there. He's serviceable, and after a few years of recovering and ever increasing confidence, he'll be decent, but 3/4 is the best I can see.

Draft the Yak!

Playing at the WC should increase his confidence by a country mile.

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#52 @Oilanderp
April 28 2012, 07:48PM
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@BloodyEyes13

Well it's not THAT straightforward as would we have finished last place with Vanek?

But yes, it's crazy. Last year I wanted to trade our 2012 first rounder (Yakupov) for NJDs #4 (Adam Larsson). Who knows how it would have worked out. Still, keep the pick, draft the BPA for the love of Jeebus.

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#53 Henry
April 28 2012, 07:51PM
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Questions for everyone suggesting trades for the #1:

Knowing what you know now would you trade RNH for the #5 and Gunnarsson?

RNH for diver Brown and Voynov?

RNH for Beaulieu and the #3.

I wouldn't do it. Who knows, the best player from this draft may be better than Hopkins.

I would ask Murray what is reasonable for the right to talk to Justin Schultz' agent for the next couple months.

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#54 PaperDesigner
April 28 2012, 07:54PM
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I think Yakupov is going to score 500 goals in this league. I think you part with him as easily as you would with Hall, which is to say, it better blow my socks off. Most of these deals make no sense if you are projecting Yakupov as a star goal scorer.

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#55 PaperDesigner
April 28 2012, 07:54PM
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I think Yakupov is going to score 500 goals in this league. I think you part with him as easily as you would with Hall, which is to say, it better blow my socks off. Most of these deals make no sense if you are projecting Yakupov as a star goal scorer.

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#56 Time Travelling Sean
April 28 2012, 07:55PM
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I would only trade the 1st if OEL was part of it.

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#57 Nail
April 28 2012, 08:11PM
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Nail for Alex

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#58 Oilcruzer
April 28 2012, 09:42PM
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Oilbridge wrote: As per Friedman, Jordan Staal may be available with one year left on his contract. He has stated he wants more responsibilities, aka not wanting to be playing behind Crosby and Malkin. Would you trade the 1st pick straight up for Staal, an extended Staal? Is that enough? A one-two punch of RNH and Staal would be sick. Then you can move Gagner for a dman.

That deal ain't happening. A proven strong, multi use, all star'ish centre for a prospect? No.

But... sweeten with maybe Gagner and next years first round... Pittsburgh will listen... but only make that deal if Staal signs for 4 years at $5M

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#59 kevin
April 28 2012, 09:49PM
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Trading the pick means admitting to failure in previous drafts. Ie the year the Kevin Lowe regime was drafting Plants and Riley Nash ahead of say PK Subban and Max paceoretti. The feeling that maybe one can get that extra top asset. Well maybe the case with some management teams. Not ours! I have very little confidence in our leaders. Luck gave us this pick. Plain and simple take the best player period. Trade other assets to try and acquire a Dman. Management failed to move Hemskey two yeasts ago and then had to cut him $10 million to keep him versus losing him this summer for nothing. Water bug Gagne has value this asset should fill a need somewhere.

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#60 Harlie
April 28 2012, 10:08PM
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One of the most well written and best singled malted analogy hockey blog every written. Stay thirsty my friends. Props LT. Props LB. Props Arena. Props sunshine and warm ass weather.

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#61 rockinghockey
April 28 2012, 10:23PM
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I am not giving 1st over all this year for Staal alone, plus you want to add Gagner and next years 1st. That is over payment.

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#62 rockinghockey
April 28 2012, 10:25PM
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I am not trading Yak for the 5th over all, Gunner and Kuli. Would you give up RNH or Hall for that, plus Yak is suppose to be more of a goal scorer.

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#63 JMC88
April 28 2012, 11:59PM
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The only possible trade scenario that I can envision right now for the #1 overall would involve a team that desperately needs a player like Yakupov. The only team that I see that fits that bill is Montreal.

If Montreal is willing to over-pay, and I mean overpay, then the Oilers might go for it.

The Oilers would have to get back the #3 overall, at least one established d-man or forward, and one blue-chip prospect. They might even try and get back the Habs #1 pick in 2013/2014. Depending on what the Habs offer up, the Oilers would have to give up stuff along with the #1 though.

The Oilers would then be assured to get one of Murray, Reinhart, Rielly, Grigorenko, or Dumba, depending on who they like and subject to CBJ's pick.

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#64 JMC88
April 29 2012, 12:06AM
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By "established d-man or forward", I'm talking Subban or Pacioretty. At the very least, Lars Eller.

By "blue-chip prospect", I'm talking Louie Leblanc or Nathan Beaulieu. At the very least, Jarrod Tinordi and Brendan Gallagher.

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#65 JMC88
April 29 2012, 12:15AM
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That said, I think there's a more likelihood that NYI and/or Tor trade away their picks in order to acquire a bunch of assets than it is for the Oilers to trade the #1 pick away.

I could also see CBJ and Mon swapping picks if Mon wanted to guarantee themselves a forward rather than a d-man.

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#66 I am the Liquor
April 29 2012, 12:33AM
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DSF wrote:

So you think the Gagner is worth more than Johansen AND Methot?

Jeebus.

Columbus could just sign Kyle Wellwood as a UFA and keep their players.

I think Wellwood is too good for that comparison anymore.

Wouldnt Tyler Bozak be more suitable?

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#67 Time Travelling Sean
April 29 2012, 12:44AM
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I saw the NFL draft and it said Cleveland traded their 4th pick and 3rd 6th and 7th picks to Minnie for the 3rd and then drafted a RB.

Doesn't Minnie have AP?

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#68 Reg Dunlop
April 29 2012, 04:15AM
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Just spitballing... how about drafting Yak as a cornerstone player and trading Hall(he of a potentially injury shortened career) for Weber.

What did I just suggest? It must be the DTs from oiler-withdrawl.

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#69 sizedoesmatter
April 29 2012, 05:00AM
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The OIlers are filling the cupboards nicely and would love it if they kept the pick.But as Tambo says If someone knocks there socks off with an offer then I would love to see a strong center like Joe Thorton who can feed the puck to Eberle and hall.We just have to get the other teams to get in a track meet so they can out score them

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#70 Oilcruzer
April 29 2012, 08:24AM
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@rockinghockey I am not giving 1st over all this year for Staal alone, plus you want to add Gagner and next years 1st. That is over payment.

Yep. And that's why the Oil won't land Staal unless they overpay. Pittsburgh ain't trading Staal for a bag o' pucks, and maybe not at all.

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#71 michael
April 29 2012, 08:39AM
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Staal may go into Free Agency and decide to go play with one of his brothers. Wouldn't he look good on Carolina's second line? Carolina would fall all over themselves to get him. The Rangers have wade Reddens expiring contract and the cap space to make him and offer he might not refuse. I believe Jordan plays out his contract and waits until Free Agency to make his move. If Pittsburgh were smart they would trade him to Carolina sooner than later and get a boatload of assets in return. It would be a kings ransom surely but Carolina would certainly pay it to get a player of his caliber,

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#72 T-Roy
April 29 2012, 08:50AM
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Lowetide wrote:

Panthers traded down in 2003, got the player they wanted and some extra.

Yeah, but they missed out on Eric Staal.

Florida also traded out of the number 1 to pick up Bouwmeester and Nash went no 1.

Florida should be an example of what not to do. They are a perpetual suck machine.

I think history has shown you take the best forward available... I heard MBS on the radio and when asked what was the biggest difference between him and the former regime he said that he doesn't swing for the fence... No Niinimaki's or Rita's or Pouliots.

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#73 Oilcan
April 29 2012, 02:55PM
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Oiler Al wrote:

Sticking to the original "Whiskey question" , flipping OIlers No.1 pick with Toronto's No.5. I would ask for Gardiner and Bozak. Forget Phaneuf,cant skate for the new speedy Oilers. However.. Gardiner,,, would be your bait to get Schultz.. Gardiner and Shcultz played together in college.Bozak is a slight upgrade on Gagner.

Now with couple more shots of whiskey, I would send Hemsky, Gagner, and say Peckham to Columbus for their #2 overal pick. OIlers pick # 1 and 2.

I think you just had too many shots go whiskey because in your "proposal" they number 1 pick now belongs to toronto.

If iambi can turn Hemsky Gagner and Peckham into Gardiner Bozak, #5 and #2 he deserves a nobel prize for jedi mind tricks.

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#74 madjam
April 29 2012, 05:03PM
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Management seems to imply a six year strategy based on developing draft talent . Many deals out there as many have suggested , but Tams unlikely to divert from this plan this early to take a stab at playoffs until after the 5th year . At that time Khabby could be dealt or have his contract expire . Hemsky would have only one year left and Horcoff can be dealt with . Most of defensive prospects will have had an extra year from which to evaluate . Year six they have to go all out , but i don't believe this is the year to try and do it all out . Had Tams added a few needed pieces this year they might be tempted - but not as it stands at end of season .

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#75 Oiler Al
April 29 2012, 05:51PM
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To: Oilcan #73... just to be clear, the second part of my proposal is a" instead of" and not and addition to the Toronto deal.

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