2012 NHL Draft Top 100 - May Update

Derek Zona
May 16 2012 12:47PM

Photo by Bri Weldon via Wikimedia Commons

Nail Yakupov is the goods, or so says the Consensus Top 100.  The largest gap between any two players in the top 20 is between #1 Yakupov and #2 Forsberg - a ringing endorsement of Yakupov's incredible abilities.  I reconstructed this list for 2010 and 2011 using the final rankings of the draft guides, watchers and gurus over the last two years to compare to this year's list and found that not only is the gap between #1 and #2 much larger this year than in the previous two, the gap between Yakupov and Forsberg is the largest gap between any two back-to-back players ranked in the top ten from 2010-2012. 

Nail Yakupov is the clear cut #1 pick and with good reason. 

Yakupov has the goal-scoring prowess and passing ability that all high-end picks possess, but what separates him from the rest of the bunch, says Corey Pronman, is his speed and agility:

He has the ability to push the tempo up the ice and keep defenders on their heels, but he's probably even more dangerous at a standstill with high-end agility, first step acceleration, and a real slippery aspect to his game. He has such a powerful stride that he can take a handful of strides and already have travelled half the distance of the ice. Yakupov is the kind of player who consistently keeps his feet moving and has a very desirable motor to his game that shines through on a regular basis either when he's jetting through open ice or when he's engaging along the physical areas.

The sources for the consensus list are Bob McKenzie, Redline Report, Future Considerations, ISS, Craig Button, Hockey Prospectus, The Scouting Report, and Win Shares via Nick, A.K.A. Mathletic.  Their prior records are used to establish a weighting so that the opinions of the more accurate (McKenzie and Button) have more value than the opinions of the less accurate. 

#   Pos   Name   HT   WT   L/R   Team   Move
1 F Nail Yakupov  5'11 180 L Sarnia Sting 0
2 F Filip Forsberg  6'2 180 R Leksand 0
3 F Alex Galchenyuk  6'1 185 L Sarnia Sting 3
4 F Mikhail Grigorenko  6'2 192 L Quebec Remparts -1
5 D Ryan Murray  6'0 182 L Everett Silvertips 0
6 D Mathew Dumba  6'0 172 R Red Deer Rebels -2
7 F Teuvo Teräväinen  5'10 161 L Jokerit 2
8 D Morgan Rielly  6'0 190 L Moose Jaw Warriors -1
9 D Jacob Trouba  6'1 183 R USA NTDP U18 -1
10 D Griffin Reinhart  6'4 202 L Edmonton Oil Kings 0
11 D Cody Ceci  6'2 203 R Ottawa 67's 2
12 F Radek Faksa  6'2 183 L Kitchener Rangers 3
13 F Sebastian Collberg  6'0 180 R Frölunda 1
14 F Pontus Åberg  5'11 183 R Djurgården -3
15 F Zemgus Girgensons  6'1 182 L Dubuque Fighting Saints -3
16 D Matt Finn  6'0 197 L Guelph Storm 1
17 D Derrick Pouliot  5'11 192 L Portland Winterhawks 1
18 D Olli Määttä  6'2 198 L London Knights 1
19 D Slater Koekkoek  6'2 180 L Peterborough Petes 1
20 F Brendan Gaunce  6'2 205 L Belleville Bulls -4
21 F Tomas Hertl  6'2 196 L Slavia Praha 0
22 D Brady Skeji  6'1 183 L USA NTDP U18 3
23 G Andrei Vasilevski  6'3 200 L Ufa 0
24 D Hamphus Lindholm 6'2 180 L Rogle 18
25 F Nicolas Kerdiles  6'1 183 L USA NTDP U18 1
26 F Martin Frk  5'11 190 R Halifax Mooseheads -2
27 L Philip Di Giuseppe 5'11 176 L Michigan -1
28 D Damon Severson  6'1 188 R Kelowna Rockets 1
29 D Michael Matheson  6'1 175 L Dubuque Fighting Saints -3
30 D Ludvig Bystrom 6'0 176 L Modo 6
31 F Stefan Matteau  6'1 188 L USA NTDP U18 -4
32 D Jordan Schmaltz  6'2 175 R Green Bay Gamblers -2
33 F Tanner Pearson 6'0 192 L Barrie Colts -2
34 F Jarrod Maidens  6'2 170 R Owen Sound Attack 0
35 D Dalton Thrower  6'0 195 R Saskatoon Blades -4
36 F Daniil Zharkov  6'3 195 L Tri-City Storm -1
37 F Tom Wilson  6'4 195 R Plymouth Whalers -3
38 F Colton Sissons  6'0 173 R Kelowna Rockets 7
39 F Matia Marcantuoni  5'11 185 R Kitchener Rangers 4
40 D Ville Pokka  6'0 187 R Kärpät -3
41 F Henrik Samuelsson  6'2 192 R Edmonton Oil Kings -4
42 F Scott Laughton  6'0 174 L Oshawa Generals 5
43 R Scott Komaschuk 5'11 185 R Guelph Storm -2
44 F Cristoval Nieves  6'2 175 L Kent Prep School -4
45 F Mike Winther 5'11 170 R Prince Albert Raiders -3
46 D Patrick Sieloff  6'0 173 L USA NTDP U18 5
47 F Brady Vail  6'1 190 L Windsor Spitfires 2
48 F Andreas Athanasiou  6'0 165 L London Knights -9
49 D Gianluca Curcuruto  6'1 187 L SSM Greyhounds 4
50 D Nick Ebert  6'0 195 R Windsor Spitfires 2
51 L Anton Slepyshev 6'2 187 R Novokuznetsk -3
52 G Malcolm Subban  6'0 178 L Belleville Bulls 4
53 F Tim Bozon 6'1 178 L Kamloops Blazers -6
54 D Adam Pelech  6'2 200 L Erie Otters -4
55 L Gemel Smith 5'11 165 L Owen Sound Attack 6
56 D Dillon Fournier  6'1 160 L Rouyn-Noranda Huskies -1
57 F Raphaël Bussières  6'0 183 L Baie-Comeau Drakkar -3
58 G Oscar Dansk  6'2 183 L Brynäs -1
59 F Charles Hudon  5'8 165 L Chicoutimi Sagueneens -1
60 F Nikolai Prokhorkin  6'2 183 L CSKA Moscow -1
61 F Mark Jankowski 6'2 170 L Stanstead 17
62 F Tomas Hyka 5'11 160 R Gatineau Olympiques -2
63 F Ryan Olsen  6'2 190 R Kelowna Rockets -1
64 F A.J. Michaelson  6'0 180 L Waterloo Black Hawks -1
65 F Emil Lundberg  6'3 198 L Södertälje 0
66 C Dane Fox 6'0 185 L London Knights 3
67 F Branden Troock  6'1 175 R Seattle Thunderbirds 1
68 F Brian Hart  6'1 190 R Phillips Exeter Academy -2
69 D Calle Andersson  6'1 194 R Malmö 11
70 F Nikita Gusev 5'9 163 R CSKA Moscow -6
71 F Chandler Stephenson  5'9 170 L Regina Pats 4
72 F Brendan Leipsic  5'9 155 L Portland Winterhawks -5
73 D Esa Lindell 6'3" 194 L Jokerit 3
74 G Matt Murray 6'4" 162 R SSM Greyhounds -4
75 F Troy Bourke  5'10 150 L Prince George Cougars 19
76 D Jaynen Rissling  6'3 215 L Calgary Hitmen -4
77 D Jake McCabe  6'0 195 L USA NTDP U18 -6
78 F Lukas Sutter  6'0 199 L Saskatoon Blades -1
79 D Dylan Blujus  6'3 184 R Brampton Battalion 43
80 F Coda Gordon 6'2 174 L Swift Current Broncos 4
81 F Mathew Campagna  5'11 170 L Sudbury Wolves -8
82 G Brandon Whitney 6'5 193 R Victoriaville -8
83 F Steven Hodges  5'11 165 L Chilliwack Bruins 9
84 F Dominik Volek 6'1 180 L Regina Pats 7
85 D Trevor Carrick 6'2 175 L Mississauga St. Mike's Majors 4
86 C Tanner Richard 5'11 182 L Guelph Storm -1
87 F Riley Barber  5'11 180 R Dubuque Fighting Saints -1
88 D Jesse Graham  5'11 160 R Niagara IceDogs 7
89 C Devin Shore 6'0 184 L Whitby 17
90 D Valeri Vasiliyev 6'1 183 L Spartak Moscow -11
91 D Dominic Poulin  6'1 185 R Chicoutimi Sagueneens -9
92 D Cody Corbett 6'1 209   Edmonton Oil Kings -11
93 F Kalle Torniainen  5'10 172 R Djurgården -10
94 F Eric Locke  5'10 171 L Barrie Colts -6
95 G Jon Gillies  6'5 202 L Indiana Ice -8
96 F Logan McVeigh  6'0 179 R Kamloops Blazers -6
97 F Zach Stepan  6'0 170 L Shattuck St. Mary's -4
98 F Andrew Ryan  6'2 193 L Halifax Mooseheads -1
99 F Dalton Sward  6'0 165 R Vancouver Giants -3
100 D Marcus McIvor  6'1 204 R Brampton Battalion -2

  • What was once a two-horse race between Yakupov and Mikhail Grigorenko is no longer.  Grigorenko lost the #2 slot to Filip Forsberg last month and lost the #3 slot to Alex Galchenyuk this time around.  Craig Button dropped Grigorenko from 14 to 20 in his May rankings (which seems harsh, but ISS has Galchenyuk at 14) and ISS dropped Grigorenko to #4 behind Ryan Murray.
  • Teuvo Teräväinen jumped 25 spots last month to #9 and jumped to #7 this month.  He's probably not done.  Given the defensive depth in this draft, the value of the top-end forwards is going to be very high.  Teräväinen could very well go anywhere between #4 and #6.
  • Brendan Gaunce, the highest-ranked Canadian forward lost four spots this month.  It will be quite strange to see the first Canadian forward selected at #20, if the draft breaks that way.
  • Hamphus Lindholm was the biggest gainer in the top 50, jumping 18 spots up to #26.  The Swedish defenseman has come from #85 all the way up to the first round in four months.  Another Swedish defenseman, Ludvig Bystrom, broke into the first round at #30, up six spots since April, but up 47 spots since November.
  • This could be a very good draft for the Czech Republic.  After a couple of down years, three Czechs rank in the top 30 and 9 rank in the top 200.

Recently by Derek Zona

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#1 Kent Wilson
May 16 2012, 01:19PM
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Is there a reason Grigorenko keeps falling? Injuries? The Russian factor?

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#2 AronV
May 16 2012, 01:28PM
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Would it make sense to drop off each players highest and lowest ranking? I'm sure Button's assessment of Grigorenko is skewing his ranking more than it should.

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#3 MathMan
May 16 2012, 02:01PM
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Kent Wilson wrote:

Is there a reason Grigorenko keeps falling? Injuries? The Russian factor?

Or the plain reputation for laziness?

I dunno, but I think there's a not-inconsiderable chance he'll fall in the rankings yet prove to be the best or second-best-by-a-whisker player in the draft.

Button has Grigorenko 20th, which seems to be a ridiculous outlier has Red Line's 7th would already seem to be out of step with everyone else who has him 4th or better.

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#4 Derek Jedamski
May 16 2012, 02:11PM
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I think the news breaking that the KHL is going to make a strong push for Grigorenko could really hurt his draft stock. Maybe it's my own personal opinion, not necessarily based in any fact, but Grigorenko always seemed the most likely to bolt of the trio of Russians.

I was convinced that Grigorenko wouldn't get by Montreal at 3 but who really knows now.

I'm disappointed that Teravainen continued to rise so much that he is now well out of the Sabres reach (12th pick) but would be more than happy with Faksa if he's there.

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#6 Josh L.
May 16 2012, 02:52PM
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@Kent Wilson

There was an article a few days ago about the KHL making a salary cap exemption for one player per team with Grigorenko as one of the anticipated targets.

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#7 Derek Jedamski
May 16 2012, 03:13PM
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@Josh L

I believe that was for NHL defects. Would that qualify Grigorenko the moment he is drafted? Or would he need to play a game for an NHL team first to be considered a defect?

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#8 ItsTheBGB
May 16 2012, 03:51PM
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Sean Couturier was questioned about his work ethic, he doesn't look to grotesque, yet. He was diagnosed with mono during the year. Mikail Grigorenko, pegged as lacking in work ethic. What was he diagnosed with at the end of the year? Mononucleosis.... If he falls because of the item in question, some team is going to be laughing when they take him. He came over to Canada to play hockey, I think he'll play in the NHL. Radulov is Radulov, he doesn't speak for all Russian's, just like Patrick Kane doesn't represent all Americans, and Sean Avery doesn't represent all Canadian's. If Grigorenko says he is playing in the NHL next year, I would believe him.

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#9 Josh L.
May 17 2012, 06:25AM
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@Derek Jedamski

Yeah, that looks right. I missed the "reverse defector" part. Slava Malamud tweeted this a few days ago however:

"Sources in Russia say that CSKA is very likely to make a big play for Grigorenko. If true, this should plunge his draft stock."

Maybe they would just devote regular cap space to Mikhail.

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#10 Derek Jedamski
May 17 2012, 07:06AM
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I would imagine that they would not hesitate to use regular cap space for Grigorenko. Makes me very nervous. I understand the argument that he came over here prior to being drafted which shows his desire to make himself marketable to NHL teams. However, as far as I know the KHL doesn't have any sort of rookie max contract limits like the NHL does, so they could make him a very hefty offer which I would have to assume would be very difficult to turn down.

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#11 Phil S
May 17 2012, 10:49AM
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Imagine if he really did fall and the Caps could take him at 11. Would be a very interesting decision given the Kuznetzov issues they are having right now.

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#12 me
May 17 2012, 11:24AM
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Grigorenko keeps falling because his lack of work ethic and try are readily apparent.

Has all the tools but lacks the tool box.

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#13 danl1988
May 17 2012, 12:47PM
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@Derek Jedamski

I believe he'd have to sign a contract to be considered a defector. If he's not under contract but an NHL team holds his rights, I believe he's still free to do as he pleases.

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#14 Eetu Huisman
May 18 2012, 01:06AM
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Who still has Torniainen in the top 100?

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#15 ken
May 18 2012, 07:44AM
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Derek Jedamski wrote:

I think the news breaking that the KHL is going to make a strong push for Grigorenko could really hurt his draft stock. Maybe it's my own personal opinion, not necessarily based in any fact, but Grigorenko always seemed the most likely to bolt of the trio of Russians.

I was convinced that Grigorenko wouldn't get by Montreal at 3 but who really knows now.

I'm disappointed that Teravainen continued to rise so much that he is now well out of the Sabres reach (12th pick) but would be more than happy with Faksa if he's there.

Galchenyuk is American.

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#16 Derek Jedamski
May 18 2012, 08:24AM
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@ken

Technically yes. He was born in America, but to Russian parents and spent plenty of his childhood growing up in Russia.

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#17 Curt
May 18 2012, 08:38AM
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Talent isn't enough to be a great player. You need to actually want to play and constantly strive to improve yourself. Grigorenko has a great ceiling but it means nothing if he goes Daigle.

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#18 Frank
May 18 2012, 10:06AM
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I don't even think the Russian factor has anything to do with Grigorenko falling. It's his weak play during the 7 games series against Halifax that made him drop. He didn't create anything offensively & was shying away from the dirty areas all series. Though, we learnt that he was later diagnosed with a mononucleous after the series. So the question becomes: to what extent was it the cause of his poor play?

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#19 RexLibris
May 18 2012, 03:32PM
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Looking over this list it seems like there is one identifiable first line player (Yakupov), three or four potential first line/pairing players (Murray, Reinhart, Forsberg, Galchenyuk) and then a collection of prospects who may become complementary talent in later years.

Last season there was some talk amongst the media and bloggers who follow scouting reports that this year would be an exceptionally deep draft, based on the performance of a few players (Frk, Sissons, Ebert, Yakupov, Galchenyuk, Athanasiou, and others).

Early this season this began to change as those players failed to pick up where they had left off in the previous season or their colleagues began to catch up, thereby diluting the effect of these early standouts.

By March I was reading some opinions that this draft, outside of the early five to ten prospects, was one of the weakest drafts since 2007.

Drafts and influxes of talent go in natural cycles, so this shouldn't be a surprise.

However, I am wondering if, for a team that finds itself drafting between 10th and 17th, it might not be most advantageous to trade down or to switch picks for next year with another team (obviously only two or three teams could ultimately do this, or nobody would want to trade up).

I have discussed the idea of the Flames trading down with ColinS on another Nations forum. If Feaster were able to trade down from 14th overall and add a late second or early third round pick, this might be the year to do it.

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#20 Baalzamon
May 27 2012, 04:29PM
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@RexLibris

trading down in the 1st to get a LATE 2nd rounder? Might as well just sell off a B asset to get an early 2nd rounder.

and how does trading down in a "shallow" draft make any kind of sense for a team that needs to get the most talented players it can, rather than a large number of not-as-talented ones who have an exponentially worse chance of making the NHL? Yup. And people wonder why the Flames' prospect pool (and lack of players in that age group everyone's always talking about) has been practically non-existent, what with Sutter trading down in every single draft. Am I the only one who sees the pattern?

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