This same methodology was trotted out before last season to suggest that Jones was going to fall off a cliff. On the contrary, he astounded and disgusted stats guys across the Oilogosphere throughout the year.

Why is it that those same people simply cannot fathom the fact that talent often overrides the logical argument? With another year's experience under his belt and (hopefully) more experienced linemates (*cough* Hall...*cough* Gagner), you could just as easly suggest Eberle will have another great season. Maybe, MAYBE he's just that good.

Numbers don't often capture the intangibles of an outlier, which Eberle could certainly be. I feel sad for people who can't appreciate the beauty of sport because they're so myopically focused "on the numbers". For the love of god man, what does your gut say?

My gut says "Oiler Domination to Follow".

I like this guy.

The main reason I love watching sports is the unpredictable nature of it. I love getting blown away when the unexpected happens.

Stats are great but I only look at them after the fact. I want it to summarize the game not predict it for me. But what do I know, I use a loonie to pick my playoff teams.

Like the old saying goes... there are three types of sports fans, those who like numbers and those who don't.

He could very well be an outlier.

The point is that we will have to be one to put up similar goal totals next season.

I stand corrected. You are right and my comment was too precise. What I meant was several stats guys went on and on and ON at length last year about Jones' unsustainable performance (relating I believe to shooting percentage - could be wrong).

The point is it's a trap of comfort with numbers. Maybe Jones is just realy good at his sort of game and Eberle the same, albeit in a different way. In that manner they may be outliers, where numeric logic becomes unreliable at best. But to come out and say Eberle is going to fall back? He could just as easily hit for 80 this year with the right linemates and ice time. Why is that so hard to believe?

My point was that one could not draw any conclusion from the post because you had omitted huge parts of the analysis.

1) Ice time analysis 2) Zone start analysis 3) Quality of competition analysis

Of Eberle and all the competitors.

Contrast this post with mc79's post on Sutton, which is basically bulletproof from an advanced stats analysis because it is a complete analysis. He considers all the options and variables and shows by each is relevant or not relevant in evaluating Sutton's performing.

You can claimed to be an advance stats guy and put out such a superficial, incomplete, handwaving analysis as this one.

I take it that you want to take advanced stats seriously, and you want to be an advanced stats guy.

Well, that means you can't be a pageview whore, and put out quickie shoddy analysis or you discredit the advanced stats field, and diminish your credibility as an advance stats guy.

You've left gaping holes in this Eberle analysis. It is not worth even having an opinion on because there are variables you did not even bother to consider.

For an analysis to be valid you have to show not only why the variables you have chosen are important, but why other variable are not important to the analysis.

In this post, you clearly have not done that.

It was a Willis, pageview whore post, and not a Willis, serious advanced stats guru post.

Ultimately you are going to have to make a choice between those two hats.

A serious advanced stats guy is ultimately not going to be able to slum as a pageview whore.

Eberle doesn't simply put the puck on the net, he puts the puck IN the net.

And furthermore, you did not credit or note mc79's nor zona's previous work on Eberle.

Serious "research" always credits and/or footnotes past work on a particular topic.

boring stuff if all you want is stats. Willis' analysis is totally fine with me. I can disagree without being a pig.

@David S: It sounds like what you're saying is that fact-based analysis is useful only when it conforms to what our gut is telling us.

But I agree with your greater point: remember that Cogliano's rookie shooting percentage was considered to be an aberration, and what did he do? He followed it up with another high-percentage season, that's what he did. And he's been a consistent 15-18% shooter ever since! Clearly counting on a player bucking the trend is less fallible than assuming he regresses to his peer group average.

Pretty sure if Willis was a "page view whore" he wouldve just started a porn site and left the advanced stats to other guys.

John Tavares shooting % went down 2% from 9/10 to 11/12 but he scored 7 more goals because he took 100 more shots.

Jeff Carter's shot totals went 215, 260, 342 in consecutive years.

James Neal's shot totals went from on pace for 225 in his second season to 329 last year.

Zac Parise's shot totals went 247, 266, 364 in consecutive years.

Taylor Hall was on pace for 278 shots last year. Eberle took 180. What is stopping Eberle from taking 278 next year? You've pulled out the numbers to examine his shooting percentage but have no basis that I've seen to back up why you don't think his shot totals will increase. 180 shots is ridiculously low. He will shoot more. All good young hockey players learn to shoot more (except maybe Hemsky).

Steven Stamkos shooting percentage has been 17.2, 16.5, 19.8 his last three years. Taking averages is fine but for every low there is a high and no reason why Eberle won't be one of the highs. Stamkos has sustained it. It is possible for Eberle to as well. I doubt it as well but could still see 14.5%. With 235 shots that's still 34 goals.

The Oilers are an improving team. Schultz, an improving Petry, a healthy Whitney, the puck should be moving in the proper direction a lot more than last year. When injuries hit, Eberle was keyed on heavily but with a healthy Hall and the addition of Yakupov that shouldn't happen this year. I still see him scoring 30+.

Just curious Jonathan, if you project his goals to go down, what do you think will happen points wise?

Might I suggest a nice bacon wrapped fillet mignon grilled to medium rare and finished with garlic butter.

Some asparagus on the grill with a simple olive oil drizzle with salt and pepper to taste.

Garlic smashed new potatoes and top everything off with a bernaise sauce? If you can't do bernaise from scratch there are some really good packaged mixes out there eh.

Best of all worlds and no need to decide :)

Keep in mind Eberle only played 17m a night this season. I agree his production will likely drop but I wouldn't be surprised to see him get more shots just from an increase in icetime alone, let alone making the conscious decision to shoot more.

Great article, the argument is sound. I love Eberle as much as the next guy (and I sincerely hope he breaks Wayne Gretzky's goal scoring record next season), but it's a statistical prediction people it's not a damn condemnation of the guy...

The guy who's shots went up dramatically in his third season is none other than Wayne Gretzky. Not only did his shots per game go up around one per game but his shooting percentage increased dramatically as well. Eberle is no Gretzky, but he is clutch around the net. I say 250 shots, 15% for 38 goals, highest Oiler total since Smyth's 39 in 96-97, except Hall is cracking 40, first Oiler since '91 to do so.

Low end 30 high end 40 but somewhere in between would be just fine as well.

If the O/U of goals for Eberle is 26.5 over 82 games next season, I will bet EVERYTHING plus what ever lines of credit I can max out on the over.

I can't wait for Eberle to score 30+ goals this year. Then we can all say "Hey stat nerds, stuff it!!!"

Ebs isn't a lucky shooter. He is patient and has incredible vision. He's a sniper.

His percentage will drop, but I predict he will stabilize around 16%. Shots will increase with experience.

He will end up with 35-40 goals next year.

I agree with Br91's second point: You have to consider the TYPE of goals Eberle scores, because a simple shooting percentage doesn't capture all the variables.

Many of Eberle's shots are very high quality, because of the way he carries/controls the puck. How many times does he wait until two or three defenders AND the goaltender are laying on the ice before he shoots into an open net?

When he scored the goal of the year (!) in his first NHL game, people said he was lucky. His highlight reel for the last two seasons says otherwise, and that doesn't show the 2-3 similar opportunities per game that he DOESN'T score on. He will continue to create this type of opportunity, likely at the same rate, and I don't see his percentage going down on those type of goals.

The second type of goal he scores are finishing shots after passing plays. He's unlikely a) to be on the receiving end of fewer passes in the next year, and just as unlikely b) to start missing open nets more than he already does.

The third type of goal he scores are laser-accurate shots from difficult and sneaky angles. His shooting percentage might go down in this category, but because defenders are aware of his explosive linemates and his ability to create chances in the first two categories above, Eberle will continue to catch goalies and defencemen cheating, so I think his numbers in this category of goal last year are not really as lucky as they appear.

My prediction: Eberle's shot total and shooting percentage in the last two years were not an anomaly. He will score at the same pace as last year for several years to come. He won't be a 50-goal scorer, but a solid 30-40 goal man.