The Blueprint For Rebuilding Without Tanking
Josh L.
July 05 2012 01:03PM
Image from the Dallas Morning News
The Dallas Stars have been in a weird state of limbo for four years now. They've been one of those tweener mediocre teams since their last playoff berth after a decade of sustained success. Those teams generally have two directions they can go to get their franchises back on track. They can either tank and rack up the lottery picks or rebuild on the fly.
I used to lean towards the tankers. The closest thing I ever came to witnessing a full rebuild firsthand was the Stars dropping into the bottom five to draft Ric Jackman in 1996, and he had absolutely nothing to do with the immediate transformation of the franchise the following year. Needless to say, my thoughts on the topic weren't fully vetted.
I'm not going to spend the energy trying to convince you one way or the other on the broader topic of tanking vs. trying. I'm more interested in the trying to retool on the fly side of the equation. Joe Nieuwendyk and the Stars have been ruthlessly implementing change in Texas since the season ended. He has his detractors, but he's done yeoman's work with the Stars roster the past two weeks and for the organization as a whole since the Finals ended. The Stars are laying out a blueprint for rebuilding on the fly that is going largely unnoticed.
Building The Foundation
I'll let Mr. Zona get us started:
I really liked Dallas' draft last year, and Joe Niuwendyk's staff did it again this year. Radek Faksa is a year away from the NHL and an all-around talent and a big centre. They followed that up with Mike Winther at 54. He's a playmaker and has all kinds of agility. They can wait for a couple of years on him to develop. In between those two, they grabbed Ludvig Bystrom at 43. Bystrom has all of the skills, but lacks strength - Dallas can wait.
They also tacked on a talented Finnish defenseman, Esa Lindell and Gemel Smith another forward with speed. Smith is really small, by the way, one of the smallest players I saw on Saturday.
If the Stars decide to target some offense in Jiri Hudler and some defense in Daniel Winnik or Jay McClement next week, they've put together a really strong base for a team. It's pretty amazing, no? A rebuild without tanking? I was told this was not possible.
Not only is it possible, but the Stars appear to have pulled it off with their flurry of moves between the draft and the first week of free agency. The Stars strange financial situation of the past three to four years basically mandated that they had to be mediocre. They were unable to spend much anything more than the salary floor because excess spending was never in the best interest of the crumbling Hicks Sports Group or the 30+ lenders who more or less owned the team. Tanking was never an option because it would drive the value of the franchise down.
Because of that situation (and Nieuwendyk's personal feelings against trading picks) the Stars kept and used all of their premium picks from 2009-2012. Some of their first round decisions have been questionable. Jack Campbell for one and punching bag Scott Glennie being the other. The Stars are very high on both players though. In watching a couple AHL games late in the year both players were impressive.
They've really been hitting later in the draft though. Prior to this most recent draft the Stars had 11 forwards in their system who had NHL equivalent point totals of 24 or more. That includes three wingers (Austin Smith, Reilly Smith, and Alex Chiasson) over 40 points. These prospects, most likely, aren't superstars. A lot of them are NHL talent though. The same story is true on the blueline. They are very high on Jamie Oleksiak, Patrik Nemeth, Philip Larsen, and Brenden Dillon with Jyrki Jokipakka and John Klingberg playing in Europe.
Misleading Indicators
The prospect foundation is nice, but the Stars also have talented young core pieces in place. Jamie Benn, Loui Eriksson, Alex Goligoski, and Kari Lehtonen is a hell of a start for a franchise. When the Stars traded Mike Ribeiro at the draft it signalled to the hockey world that the Stars were going into a rebuild. In a way that's true. What they were doing was shifting the focus of the roster to Jamie Benn. He was an elite scorer last year, but he wasn't put in the best position to succeed because of how much they had to protect Ribeiro. That will be different in 2013 for sure.
Both the Stars top and third lines were mediocre possession lines last year. The biggest culprit in the top six was Ribeiro with his -4.4 Corsi Relative in cupcake minutes. The Vern Fiddler, Radek Dvorak, and Eric Nystrom line was solid defensively, but offered nothing in the way of offense. Only 46 forwards in the league were on the ice for fewer shots than Fiddler.
Their astonishing lack of depth up front is what forced that trio into a checking role. Brenden Morrow was off all year. For half of the season Adam Burish and Steve Ott were on the wings with Jamie Benn. That just isn't a recipe for success. Any number of prospects could have been rushed for the 2013 season to fill those holes. Instead, with as little long term risk as possible, they pursued stop gap options in Derek Roy, Ray Whitney, and Jaromir Jagr.
Roy and Whitney are the two more interesting acquisitions. Roy has a history of playing tougher minutes for the Sabres. At worst the Sabres haven't felt the need to protect Roy. At best, last season, he performed well in pretty tough ice time. Whitney is a guy not known for his defense, yet Dave Tippett hasn't felt the need to protect him the past two seasons. Last year, in fact, Whitney's line was routinely matched against the top line of the opposition. Both players have a history of doing well in possession metrics too. The Stars seem to love #fancystats now.
Foundation Repaired
The veteran additions to the roster have given the Stars a stable foundation with which to introduce their young players to the NHL. No prospect is going to be required to step into tough minutes or too much responsibility. They haven't handed out long term contracts so the prospects also have a lot of upward mobility. It may not seem like a rebuild in the tradition sense of the word, but everything the Stars have done is geared towards creating a positive atmosphere to allow their young players to develop.
So, when you see analysis such as this from EJ Hradek...
2 yrs ago,
@9modano got run out of DAL at age 40, but now they sign 2 40-year-olds (Jagr/Whitney). Youth movement?
...feel free to laugh not only at the comparisons of 40 year old Modano to the highly productive Whitney, but at the shallowness of the analysis. Fortunately noted prospect supporter Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News gets it.
Of course, it all has to come together, but the Stars have started the transition forward. The coaches have some veterans as crutches, but they are definitely going to have to rely on the 20-something core players more than ever.
And that’s a big reason all of these changes are being made — to move toward the youthful future but to do so with a safety net in place.
That phrase is the key for rebuilding without tanking. You don't need 1-1 picks for four drafts in a row to build a team. Draft and develop your prospects then give them a structured positive environment where they are given ample opportunities to prove their worth. The Stars have executed that plan almost flawlessly this offseason. It should be fascinating to see how it all plays out.
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@Scott Reynolds
"But I'd have a hard time thinking of that team as "rebuilding"."
As an Oilers fan, you've come to understand rebuilding as a whole other thing.
It all hinges on the quality of the amateur scouting. If they keep getting NHLers after the first half of the first round then they can rebuild without tanking.
@ubermiguel
Finding Jamie Benn unquestionably helped.
Post 1st round picks 2009-2011
The system isn't big on star power, but they have some incredible depth with this group of players in the AHL or NHL next season:
Austin Smith, Reilly Smith, Chiasson, Vincour, Nemeth, Oleksiak, Sceviour, Glennie, Dillon, Fraser, Larsen, and an very outside shot at Radek Faksa.
That's making your picks stick.
Vincour's gonna be a stud.
@Derek T.
He definitely could be. He has a nice shot when he uses it.
I really liked what the Stars did in shifting from Ribeiro to Roy. Roy is three years younger, and could end up being part of the core group going forward if the Stars decide to sign him.
I am having a bit of trouble seeing this as rebuilding though. Or at least, I'm having trouble seeing how this "rebuilding" differs from what any good team tries to do.
The Canucks, for instance, traded two older pieces to get David Booth (a player in his prime). During the summer they let Sami Salo walk and replaced him with Jason Garrison. Next, they'll likely move Roberto Luongo for younger players or picks. But I'd have a hard time thinking of that team as "rebuilding".
No, I think it's just a lot more meaningful to describe a team like the Oilers as rebuilding because they're doing something clearly different from most of the rest of the league. It's kind of meaningless to describe Dallas as rebuilding.
They're using their draft picks in an effort to draft good players? Every team tries to do that. They're acquiring veterans to serve as a bridge to their younger developing players? Most teams do that too. They're trying to build around a core either in or approaching their prime? Seems to me like almost every team does that as well. What is it that makes Dallas's approach different over the last, say, three years from that of Vancouver or Boston or New York? And if those teams are all rebuilding too, who isn't?
@Scott Reynolds
What makes the approach different from those top teams? Not much in terms of targeting younger players. Yeah, all teams do that if possible.
The difference, I think, is that those teams have an identified core group of players that they're building around. They might change a player in that core in a given year, but ultimately you still know what to expect from them.
The Stars did too and that group sucked. This offseason they've dumped Ribeiro (6 years in Dallas), Ott (10 years), and relegated Brenden Morrow to a bottom 6 role (if he isn't traded). Robidas is on his last legs too.
They've dramatically altered their core, shifted their focus from Ribeiro to Benn, and charted a new direction for the franchise at a time when it would have been tempting for some to tear the whole thing down. It's similar to what the Flyers did obviously, but the Flyers motivations were slightly different given where they had been in the standings for a few years.
I really enjoyed reading this and I'm not even a Stars fan. Very well written.
@Josh L.
Making a significant change to the core sounds like a reasonable starting point for a definition, though I'm not convinced that years of service is a good gauge for who "the core" is.
Maybe something like a change in at least four of the top nine positions (4F, 4D, 1G) within a calendar year while still trying to build a winner.
That would hit the Flyers transition from 2010-11 to 2011-12 (though that's partially because of Pronger leaving). It probably won't hit Dallas this year in that Lehtonen, Goligoski, Robidas, Daley, Eriksson and Benn all project to be back in featured roles. We could reduce that to three core players, or expand the timeline, but then it might be more challenging to find teams that don't qualify.
What criteria seems fair to you, Josh?
@Scott Reynolds
That seems like a reasonable criteria, but I tend to think there should be some weighting for tenure/role with the club.
For instance in those Stars examples, they basically blew up the leadership core. I think that has to be accounted for. Ditto in Philly.
Agreed not a stars fan but really enjoyed the article, nice work
@Scott Reynolds
Scott:
In a shorter span than Edmonton's rebuild vs 1.0, 2.1, 2.2 or 3.0, the Stars have completely overhauled the entire core of the team.
Derek Roy played reasonably difficult minutes last year. However, before that he did not face very difficult minutes. You are certainly correct in saying that they didn't feel the need to protect him in prior seasons, but he wasn't exactly given difficult minutes either.
His struggles this season seemed to result from fully recovering from his injury (they say potentially as much as 24 months to recover 100%) as well as an adjustment to some more difficult minutes. I have no doubt that he will bounce back next season.
@Derek Zona
A couple of things that I think are worth noting here:
1 - If we accept that the core of a team is 1G 4D and 4F, the Stars have just two of nine core players from 2007-08 still on the roster (Morrow and Robidas), and just three players from that roster projected to be core players in 2012-13 (Eriksson, Daley and Robidas). This is clearly a lot of turnover. But how unusual is it for this to happen? Would most teams have this much turnover, and if less, how much less?
2 - The Stars may or may not end up being a good team. They have missed the playoffs in each year since 2007-08. They have changed the core in those four years and they have avoided tanking while doing it, but they haven't exactly been good either. Will they be good going forward? If so, I think you can call this a success, but I know that I certainly don't have Dallas pegged as a top tier team in the Western Conference heading into 2012-13.
@Scott Reynolds
Two remain, and of those two one isn't going to be part of that core going forward. They have one left (Robidas) and his name has been in rumors.
I definitely agree that they aren't a top tier team out West this season. I think the biggest problem they've had recently is getting the puck out of their own zone. They tried to address this problem by picking up Goligoski, but as soon as they did that Richards left.
Ribeiro collapsed last year in possession metrics. At the end of December he was -30 in scoring chance differential before leveling off when Gulutzan began protecting him. As Derek pointed out, Roy doesn't have a history of playing tough minutes. But he has more of a history of it than Ribeiro, and I think their abrupt shift towards focusing on possession vs their recent focus on size above all else is going to get them into the playoffs this year.
Is that successful? That's debatable. I'd probably say it is if any of Chiasson, Dillon, Glennie, Eakin, Sceviour, Smith, Oleksiak, Vincour, or Nemeth establish themselves. It probably is even if they don't.