NHLNumbers Predictive Power Rankings
Derek Zona
February 23 2013 10:51AM
Is this the leader of the best team in the league?
Photo by Michael Miller via Wikimedia Commons
Power rankings are no fun for any writer or editor. No matter the amount of effort or honesty involved in creating the rankings and slotting the teams, oversights happen and someone in every fanbase except the team ranked first overall will feel slighted and react like a toddler.
So we've set out to eliminate the effort by building a power rankings model based on underlying statistics and their predicative ability. Our rankings aren't based solely on the current NHL standings, though points earned are a portion of the model, they are based on a number of underlying metrics so the rankings are constantly in flux.
We're still tweaking the model, so we're not quite ready to unveil it, but consider this NHLNumbers' current best effort at predicting the standings and playoff pairings at the end of the season. One item of note - 38% of the game is luck, and we don't attempt to predict or model that 38%, and we don't plan to.
The first edition of the NHLNumbers Predictive Power Rankings:
| Rank | Team | NHLN Share |
| 1 | Boston Bruins | 3.18 |
| 2 | Chicago Blackhawks | 4.59 |
| 3 | Vancouver Canucks | 4.86 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 5.06 |
| 5 | Montreal Canadiens | 5.56 |
| 6 | St. Louis Blues | 5.71 |
| 7 | Ottawa Senators | 5.90 |
| 8 | New Jersey Devils | 6.69 |
| 9 | San Jose Sharks | 7.45 |
| 10 | Los Angeles Kings | 9.75 |
| 11 | New York Rangers | 10.02 |
| 12 | Anaheim Ducks | 10.13 |
| 13 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 10.95 |
| 14 | Phoenix Coyotes | 11.58 |
| 15 | Nashville Predators | 11.80 |
| 16 | Carolina Hurricanes | 12.32 |
| 17 | Edmonton Oilers | 12.48 |
| 18 | Detroit Red Wings | 13.08 |
| 19 | Dallas Stars | 13.63 |
| 20 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 14.48 |
| 21 | Minnesota Wild | 14.63 |
| 22 | New York Islanders | 14.69 |
| 23 | Calgary Flames | 15.00 |
| 24 | Winnipeg Jets | 15.57 |
| 25 | Colorado Avalanche | 15.78 |
| 26 | Philadelphia Flyers | 15.81 |
| 27 | Washington Capitals | 17.47 |
| 28 | Florida Panthers | 19.33 |
| 29 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 20.92 |
| 30 | Buffalo Sabres | 20.96 |
Based on these rankings, the predicted playoff matchups look like this:
| 1 | Chicago Blackhawks | 1 | Boston Bruins | |
| 8 | Nashville Predators | 8 | Toronto Maple Leafs | |
| 4 | St. Louis Blues | 4 | Montreal Canadiens | |
| 5 | Los Angeles Kings | 5 | Ottawa Senators | |
| 2 | Vancouver Canucks | 2 | Pittsburgh Penguins | |
| 7 | Phoenix Coyotes | 7 | New York Rangers | |
| 3 | San Jose Sharks | 3 | Carolina Hurricanes | |
| 6 | Anaheim Ducks | 6 | New Jersey Devils |
These other 14 teams will be in the running for Seth Jones or Nathan MacKinnon:
17 Edmonton Oilers
18 Detroit Red Wings
19 Dallas Stars
20 Tampa Bay Lightning
21 Minnesota Wild
22 New York Islanders
23 Calgary Flames
24 Winnipeg Jets
25 Colorado Avalanche
26 Philadelphia Flyers
27 Washington Capitals
28 Florida Panthers
29 Columbus Blue Jackets
30 Buffalo Sabres






























Derek,
Can you please show the equation as to how you come up with the ranking?
It's an interesting list, and I'd like to understand the underlying numbers for each team and how they project based on different metrics.
Thanks
How did you handle injured players? As for Ottawa - Karlson is out for the season; Spezza (I believe) may return near playoff time.
"We're still tweaking the model, so we're not quite ready to unveil it,"
Injured players aren't accounted for yet. I could manually put in the expected underlying regression based on injuries, but then I'd have to maintain it.
It's a work in progress.
You have the Leafs making the play-offs? Obviously your formula needs more tweaking. :)
But seriously, great job.
If Oilers had the #1 pick they would pick a small winger.
@Jefff
Well Drouin is pretty awesome
I know you won't show the equation (at least not yet), but what type of parameters do you use (such as goals for/against, shots on goal, etc)?