PDO numbers by NHL team - Feb 25

Cam Charron
February 25 2013 09:14AM

PDO doesn't stand for anything, but that doesn't mean we can't learn anything from adding up the overall shooting and save percentages for a team at even strength. A layman's explanation for 'PDO' and why we use it can be found here over at the Backhand Shelf. Basically, if a team is playing with a PDO number way higher than 1.000, they're producing above their expected output. If a team is playing with a PDO number below 1.000, they're producing below their expected output. Over the course of a long season, the number will generally correct itself.

No website offers Team PDO as a sortable statistic, but behindthenet.ca has a page that offers a team's shooting percentage and a team's save percentage numbers. Shooting percentage is the 17th column from the left on BTN's team shots page—the first one to say SPCT. It's cousin, team save percentage, is three columns to the right also saying SPCT. The team shooting percentage needs to be subtracted from 1000 to get the actual number. 

Here are the team PDO standings through games played Sunday night:

Team Team Shooting % Team Save % PDO Fenwick Close %
Anaheim 12.30% 0.929 1.052 46.67%
Chicago 9.80% 0.937 1.035 52.28%
Toronto 9.30% 0.937 1.030 45.54%
Montreal 9.00% 0.936 1.026 52.53%
Tampa Bay 11.70% 0.905 1.022 45.28%
Detroit 8.90% 0.928 1.017 52.90%
Vancouver 8.90% 0.925 1.014 53.78%
Dallas 8.90% 0.923 1.012 49.02%
Pittsburgh 9.20% 0.918 1.010 52.61%
New Jersey 8.30% 0.925 1.008 51.78%
NY Rangers 8.00% 0.928 1.008 53.41%
Carolina 8.60% 0.921 1.007 51.22%
Ottawa 6.20% 0.943 1.005 53.34%
Nashville 6.30% 0.939 1.002 47.01%
San Jose 6.40% 0.936 1.000 52.89%
Colorado 7.30% 0.924 0.997 47.12%
Boston 8.70% 0.909 0.996 55.63%
Buffalo 8.50% 0.908 0.993 44.33%
Minnesota 7.20% 0.921 0.993 45.35%
Winnipeg 8.00% 0.910 0.990 50.46%
Calgary 8.90% 0.893 0.982 52.00%
Florida 7.70% 0.905 0.982 46.57%
Phoenix 7.90% 0.903 0.982 48.94%
Columbus 8.10% 0.900 0.981 41.69%
Los Angeles 7.30% 0.907 0.980 59.67%
Washington 7.50% 0.904 0.979 47.24%
NY Islanders 8.80% 0.890 0.978 49.65%
Philadelphia 7.70% 0.899 0.976 50.08%
St. Louis 7.50% 0.900 0.975 56.17%
Edmonton 5.20% 0.922 0.974 49.61%

Last week's numbers here.

Because our sample size is now large enough, I've added Fenwick Close % to the table. Fenwick Close is the rate of all unblocked shots in "score close" situations directed by a team at the opponent's net. Anything over 50% is considered "plus-possession". This metric does correllate very strongly with zone time. The numbers for each team can be found here.

One thing that happens every year in the NHL is a team jumps out to a really hot start despite a real low puck possession rate and a high PDO. Last season it was Minnesota (crashed in the second half). Before that, it was Dallas (crashed down the stretch) and the year before, Colorado (crashed down the stretch). There are some good candidates for that this year, but no team's record is more of a house or cards than the Anaheim Ducks. They lead the league in shooting percentage and an anonymous Swedish goalie played lights out for them at the start of his NHL career. Since the season is so short, the Ducks probably have enough points to make the playoffs right now even as they flame out, but I don't think they'll win their division.

Chicago, "unbeaten" despite having lost three games, can cushion their regression since they're also a pretty good Fenwick Close club. People keep asking if they're for real and the answer is "well, no and yes". "No" because no team is good enough to go through a whole season without a regulation loss. "Yes" because they've been a real good team for the last few seasons. Look at the difference between being a good team and a bad team when it comes to a good PDO stretch: Chicago are unstoppable, while Toronto is 7th in the conference.

Montreal's Fenwick Close record is a tad dubious. I made the same point with Calgary last week: They've played 12th home games wherein they've amassed a much better Fenwick record (57.06%) than in their 6 road games (44.68%). Teams do play slightly better at home, so sometimes these early records can be distorted by a team playing an uneven schedule at the start of the season.

That in mind, the Los Angeles Kings have played 11 road games and 5 home games. They lead the league in puck-possession. They're also close to going on a Chicago-style run. Compare their numbers to last week's stats: their goaltending has improved by 12 points and their shooting has improved by 8 points, and they've gone from 30th to 26th in PDO and won a couple of games. St. Louis is on the verge of breaking out too. Edmonton should start scoring any day now. The hockey Gods are fickle, after toying with our emotions and giving Jordan Eberle a goal every time he took five shots last season, they've stripped the Oilers' ability to score goals.

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Cam Charron is a BC hockey fan that writes about hockey on many different websites including this one.
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#2 garik16
February 25 2013, 09:30AM
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Can the hockey gods give the Islanders the ability to stop pucks? It's so depressing to see that we're an average team in possession but have the worst goaltending in the league.

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#3 antro
February 25 2013, 11:05AM
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Hockey gods very happy with Toronto, Anaheim and Tampa! Jeepers. Fasth signed at a good time.

How much did Detroit's PDO rise and Vancouver's fall after last game?

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#4 beloch
February 25 2013, 04:08PM
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garik16 wrote:

Can the hockey gods give the Islanders the ability to stop pucks? It's so depressing to see that we're an average team in possession but have the worst goaltending in the league.

PDO is calculated at even strength, and the Islanders tending is indeed the worst in the league at even strength. However, if you include everything, not just 5on5, the Flames actually have the worst goal-tending in the league (Flames total Sv%:0.882, Islanders: 0.887). The Flames get absolutely hammered on penalty kills. The other bad news for Flames fans is that Kiprusoff was dragging the average down before he was injured! On the bright side, we can reasonably expect him to correct towards his career average once he returns.

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#5 daoust
February 26 2013, 07:21AM
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Is 9.3% team shooting for the Leafs that unsustainable? Isn't league average usually around 9%?

And with regards to team Sv%, what is league average generally over 82 games? I agree Leafs are in for a correction in net, but the question is how big? Hoping they can still get .920 tending over the last 28 games.

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#6 Justin S.
February 26 2013, 11:09AM
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@daoust

Remember this is just even strength. Last year, the league save percentage was .921, so shooting percentage then was 7.9%. So a .920 expectation is reasonable, but the Leafs will still fall pretty hard.

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#7 Miker
February 26 2013, 12:10PM
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W/R/T the disparity between MTL's home and away FenClose, is some of that Home Scorer Bias?

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#9 garik16
February 27 2013, 08:04AM
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beloch wrote:

PDO is calculated at even strength, and the Islanders tending is indeed the worst in the league at even strength. However, if you include everything, not just 5on5, the Flames actually have the worst goal-tending in the league (Flames total Sv%:0.882, Islanders: 0.887). The Flames get absolutely hammered on penalty kills. The other bad news for Flames fans is that Kiprusoff was dragging the average down before he was injured! On the bright side, we can reasonably expect him to correct towards his career average once he returns.

Sorry Flames fans, but Special Teams SV% #s fluctuate so wildly they're best worth ignoring for evaluating goaltenders. For instance, Nabby's PK SV% #s aren't that bad - but they're of course regressing downwards.

We got you beat. Also we've had years of this. Kipper was once good.

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#10 Ty
February 27 2013, 02:04PM
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Beloch: Do you have proof that special teams SV% regresses. Is it like even strength SV% where it tends to regress towards the league average?

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