PDO numbers by NHL team - Feb 4

Cam Charron
February 04 2013 08:23AM

PDO doesn't stand for anything, but this week @Thats_Offside suggested "Percentage-Driven Output". One place hockey lags behind other sports for advanced metrics is the hockey community's insistence on naming stats and rankings after creators, leading people to ask questions like "what does PDO stand for?" and "what does CORSI stand for?"

My primer on PDO can be found over at Backhand Shelf and if you are still unfamiliar with the concept, it's worth taking the time to get acquainted. Since there's no place to find PDO at a team level, each week I'll post them here at NHL numbers, using shooting and save percentage data gathered from behindthenet.ca.

Here are team-level PDO numbers, updated through Sunday's games:

TEAM Team Shot % Team Save% PDO
Tampa Bay Lightning 0.140 0.937 1.077
Montreal Canadiens 0.101 0.955 1.056
Anaheim Ducks 0.128 0.919 1.047
San Jose Sharks 0.088 0.951 1.039
Colorado Avalanche 0.092 0.942 1.034
Chicago Blackhawks 0.104 0.924 1.028
St. Louis Blues 0.088 0.935 1.023
Ottawa Senators 0.071 0.951 1.022
Vancouver Canucks 0.072 0.943 1.015
New York Rangers 0.075 0.935 1.010
Pittsburgh Penguins 0.085 0.925 1.010
New Jersey Devils 0.085 0.923 1.008
Detroit Red Wings 0.076 0.932 1.008
Philadelphia Flyers 0.063 0.938 1.001
Dallas Stars 0.062 0.936 0.998
Toronto Maple Leafs 0.084 0.911 0.995
Minnesota Wild 0.076 0.917 0.993
Boston Bruins 0.085 0.905 0.990
New York Islanders 0.102 0.887 0.989
Carolina Hurricanes 0.066 0.921 0.987
Nashville Predators 0.056 0.929 0.985
Buffalo Sabres 0.091 0.894 0.985
Phoenix Coyotes 0.080 0.893 0.973
Winnipeg Jets 0.073 0.899 0.972
Edmonton Oilers 0.053 0.917 0.970
Columbus Blue Jackets 0.067 0.902 0.969
Washington Capitals 0.072 0.895 0.967
Los Angeles Kings 0.075 0.879 0.954
Florida Panthers 0.055 0.895 0.950
Calgary Flames 0.065 0.875 0.940

Last week's numbers can be found here.

A few notes:

  • Our PDO leaders from last week, Tampa Bay at 1.095, San Jose at 106.8 and Montreal at 106.8 as well, have all predictably regressed closer to 1. Montreal had a bad defeat against Ottawa on Wednesday, but also big wins against the Senators and Buffalo over the weekend. The Lightning are still shooting at 14%, but Anders Lindback is falling back to earth as the Bolts lost six points on their team save percentage—those wild swings won't happen later in the season.
  • Somebody should have told the Calgary Flames how to regress. They fell from a .968 PDO last week to the bottom of the league at .940 this week. Much of that, I presume, is from their game against Chicago on Saturday night where they outplayed the Blackhawks for an even 65 minutes, out-shooting them 38-19 at even strength, yet somehow losing 3-2 in a shootout.
  • Edmonton are interesting. Some Oilers commentators have done the unexpected and have commented they look like a playoff club. I'm referring to the several prominent members of the Oilogosphere, who in my five or six years of reading hockey blogs have never been optimistic about one of their teams. They could start getting some clear victories when their shooting percentage bounces up from below 6%—yikes.
  • The Washington Capitals aren't dead just yet. They're getting unlucky, with an awful team save percentage and below average shooting. They're still a poor puck-possession club, at least from the early numbers we're seeing, but they'll have competition for the No. 1 lottery spot just yet. The Florida Panthers are in the same position, although they're a worse team. Philadelphia, who are hovering with Washington and Calgary at the bottom of the league standings, are in a bit of a pickle because they can't chalk their struggles to poor luck at even strength.
  • Next week I'll be posting team puck-possession numbers. They're starting to even out already and once we have about 10 games of data they start to tell their own stories. You can find them here, but I still wouldn't read too much into them right now.
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Cam Charron is a BC hockey fan that writes about hockey on many different websites including this one.
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#1 exsanguinator
February 05 2013, 04:27AM
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Two questions: To figure out if a team is playing to their true skill level is a comparison of PDO and Fenwick close the best comparison?

And with the tables at behindthenet, I'm not really a math guy but I want to learn more about this advanced stats stuff and well, those tables there don't make any sense.

If a team had +7 fenwick I get it but when the column lists say a 56.6 then I get a little confused. Does the 56.6 mean that they have fenwick score of +6.6 or am I way off?

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#2 Baron Bytes
February 05 2013, 07:35AM
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How does shot blocks influence team Sv%? The habs have a good shot blocker in Gorges so would it skew their numbers?

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#3 exsanguinator
February 05 2013, 09:44AM
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Baron Bytes wrote:

How does shot blocks influence team Sv%? The habs have a good shot blocker in Gorges so would it skew their numbers?

I believe shot blocking has it's effect on SH% rather than SV%.

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#4 Kent Wilson
February 05 2013, 02:18PM
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@exsanguinator

And with the tables at behindthenet, I'm not really a math guy but I want to learn more about this advanced stats stuff and well, those tables there don't make any sense?

I might actually do a video or something on stuff like to help people out.

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#5 Kent Wilson
February 05 2013, 02:20PM
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@Baron Bytes

Nope. At least not that anyone has demonstrated. The relationship can often be reversed too: teams with bad goaltenders sometimes opt to block more shots to compensate.

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#6 SmellOfVictory
February 11 2013, 10:04AM
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Poor Flames. Looking at BtN, they actually appear to be a top 5-10 outshooting team at ES and on the PP. Small sample sizes aside, what we've seen of this iteration of the team would be fully deserving of a deep playoff run.

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