NHLNumbers Predictive Power Rankings, 3/10/13

Derek Zona
March 10 2013 08:43AM

Rob Scuderi, Jonathan Quick
Photo by Michael Miller, via Wikimedia Commons

Half-way through the season and not much is changing in the predictive power rankings even though we're still adding to the model.  One item of note is the race for 8th in the Western Conference.  If Kari Lehtonen is healthy, Dallas is clear of the bottom portion of the conference for the last playoff spot.  Minnesota, Calgary and Phoenix are clumped together behind the Stars as the 9th, 10th and 11th best teams in the West.  Even though the Wild aren't better than last year's team, and Calgary is a mess in goal, they have an advantage over the Stars and Coyotes - they play each other and the awful Oilers and Avalanche a combined 7 times before the season is over. 

These rankings aren't presented as a look at the current standings or last couple of weeks' worth of performances.  Our goal is to build a predictive model that gives us a glimpse into the season-ending standings and first-round playoff matchups.  Our rankings aren't based solely on the current NHL standings, though points earned are a significant portion of the model, they are based on a number of underlying metrics so the rankings are constantly in flux. This week we've added remaining opponents in the hopes of building a better model.

We're still tweaking that model, so we're not quite ready to unveil it, but consider this NHLNumbers' current best effort at predicting the standings and playoff pairings at the end of the season.  One item of note - 38% of the game is luck, and we don't attempt to predict or model that 38%, and we don't plan to.

The third edition of the NHLNumbers Predictive Power Rankings:

Rank Move Team NHLNShare
1 - Chicago Blackhawks 2.24
2 - Boston Bruins 2.50
3 +1 Montreal Canadiens 5.33
4 +1 Pittsburgh Penguins 5.69
5 +5 Los Angeles Kings 5.87
6 +3 Anaheim Ducks 6.04
7 -1 Vancouver Canucks 6.57
8 -5 St. Louis Blues 7.32
9 -1 Ottawa Senators 7.82
10 -3 San Jose Sharks 8.30
11 +3 Carolina Hurricanes 9.33
12 - New York Rangers 9.89
13 +2 Toronto Maple Leafs 11.06
14 -1 Detroit Red Wings 12.28
15 +4 Minnesota Wild 12.58
16 +1 Dallas Stars 12.65
17 -6 New Jersey Devils 12.91
18 -2 Phoenix Coyotes 14.35
19 +5 New York Islanders 15.55
20 +2 Calgary Flames 15.64
21 - Winnipeg Jets 15.68
22 +3 Nashville Predators 17.02
23 -5 Philadelphia Flyers 17.07
24 +2 Washington Capitals 17.34
25 -2 Colorado Avalanche 17.67
26 -6 Edmonton Oilers 19.15
27 +3 Columbus Blue Jackets 20.84
28 -1 Tampa Bay Lightning 21.44
29 -1 Florida Panthers 22.33
30 -1 Buffalo Sabres 22.86

Based on these rankings, the predicted playoff matchups look like this:

1 Chicago Blackhawks
1 Boston Bruins
8 Minnesota Wild
8 New Jersey Devils





4 Anaheim Ducks
4 Montreal Canadiens
5 St. Louis Blues
5 Ottawa Senators










2 Los Angeles Kings
2 Pittsburgh Penguins
7 Detroit Red Wings
7 Toronto Maple Leafs





3 Vancouver Canucks
3 Carolina Hurricanes
6 San Jose Sharks
6 New York Rangers

These other 14 teams will be in the running for the #1 pick overall:

16 Dallas Stars
18 Phoenix Coyotes
19 New York Islanders
20 Calgary Flames
21 Winnipeg Jets
22 Nashville Predators
23 Philadelphia Flyers
24 Washington Capitals
25 Colorado Avalanche
26 Edmonton Oilers
27 Columbus Blue Jackets
28 Tampa Bay Lightning
29 Florida Panthers
30 Buffalo Sabres

 

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#1 Bushay
March 10 2013, 09:41AM
Trash it!
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You have St Louis and San Jose too high and Detroit too low.

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#3 JA
March 11 2013, 10:25PM
Trash it!
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Yikes, thinking a MIN-CHI series would be a slaughter. My Canucks picked the wrong year(s) to play the 8th seed!

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