PDO numbers by NHL team - Mar 11

Cam Charron
March 11 2013 09:35AM

PDO doesn't stand for anything, but that doesn't mean we can't learn anything from adding up the overall shooting and save percentages for a team at even strength. A layman's explanation for 'PDO' and why we use it can be found here over at the Backhand Shelf. Basically, if a team is playing with a PDO number way higher than 1.000, they're producing above their expected output. If a team is playing with a PDO number below 1.000, they're producing below their expected output. Over the course of a long season, the number will generally correct itself.

For any daily updates you may be so inclined to find, Hockey Analysis compiles these numbersbehindthenet.ca has a page that offers a team's shooting percentage and a team's save percentage numbers, and we'll use those for weekly rankings here at NHLNumbers. Shooting percentage is the 17th column from the left on BTN's team shots page—the first one to say SPCT. It's cousin, team save percentage, is three columns to the right also saying SPCT. The team shooting percentage needs to be subtracted from 1000 to get the actual number.

I've also included team Fenwick Close % numbers, pulled from behindthenet.ca as well. Treat it as a proxy for the amount of time each team spends with the puck. Any team with a rate over 50% is pretty good and should make the playoffs in an 82-game season unless something goes horribly wrong. 

Here are the team PDO standings through games played Sunday night:

TEAM Team Shot % Team Save % PDO Fenwick Close
Anaheim 11.80% 0.927 1.045 45.91%
Toronto 10.30% 0.922 1.025 44.30%
Montreal 10.10% 0.923 1.024 52.77%
Carolina 9.90% 0.924 1.023 51.94%
Chicago 9.20% 0.928 1.020 54.80%
Tampa Bay 11.30% 0.905 1.018 44.39%
Detroit 7.80% 0.935 1.013 52.06%
Pittsburgh 10.60% 0.906 1.012 51.97%
Vancouver 8.90% 0.919 1.008 53.57%
Boston 8.60% 0.921 1.007 55.20%
NY Rangers 7.90% 0.927 1.006 53.99%
Colorado 8.20% 0.923 1.005 47.98%
Nashville 7.30% 0.931 1.004 46.25%
Ottawa 6.10% 0.943 1.004 50.85%
Dallas 9.10% 0.912 1.003 50.21%
Washington 8.30% 0.920 1.003 47.19%
San Jose 6.30% 0.936 0.999 50.84%
Los Angeles 9.40% 0.904 0.998 58.59%
Buffalo 8.00% 0.917 0.997 43.44%
Minnesota 7.80% 0.917 0.995 46.54%
Columbus 8.50% 0.909 0.994 43.74%
Phoenix 8.80% 0.903 0.991 49.91%
Winnipeg 8.00% 0.911 0.991 50.44%
New Jersey 7.50% 0.906 0.981 53.54%
Edmonton 6.10% 0.917 0.978 44.72%
Philadelphia 7.60% 0.897 0.973 51.32%
NY Islanders 8.20% 0.890 0.972 49.18%
Calgary 8.30% 0.886 0.969 51.67%
Florida 7.40% 0.895 0.969 49.89%
St. Louis 8.30% 0.886 0.969 56.43%

Last week's numbers here.

Some thoughts...

  • It feels weird that we haven't started any wars with Anaheim Ducks bloggers over the Ducks' eventual fate. They're not even doing it with goaltending anymore. Every shot is turning into friggin gold for them. Very similar to the team's 2011 season when they made the playoffs with the third worst Fenwick Close % in the NHL. That year, they were winning games less because of high shooting percentages and more because they went 29-10-5 in one-goal games. Still, that was a team that shouldn't have made the playoffs, and the next season their shooters regressed heavily.
     
  • But now they're back. Ryan Getzlaf's shooting percentage in the last four years, starting with the 2009-2010 season? 12.8%, 16.2%, 5.9%, 17.9%. Corey Perry's numbers are more modest: 10.0%, 17.2%, 13.4%, 14.8%. Andrew Cogliano, basically Todd Marchant without hands, has scored nine times on 36 shots this season. Teemu Selanne, Daniel Winnik and Sheldon Souray are the only three scorers they have with 5+ goals (and they have 11 of them total) without a shooting percentage above 15%. Every Duck has caught fire in a bottle this year.
     
  • Vancouver's usually higher in these rankings. Goaltending appears to be killer for them this year. Roberto Luongo, a known PDO driver, is sitting on the bench as the team is going through an ugly stretch. I made my feelings on that known over at Canucks Army. Now that we've seen a little more of Cory Schneider, I'm wondering if that isn't the goalie the Canucks should try to trade away...
     
  • Montreal and Toronto are having excellent seasons, but Montreal's success is still more realistic. Like we've all said though, a team can basically make the playoffs coasting on crazy percentages in a 48-game season, and that looks like the Maple Leafs could do that. They stormed back to pick up a point against Pittsburgh on Marc-Andre Fleury's inability to stop anything remotely close to scoring range.
     
  • The heck is wrong with Ken Hitchcock's goalies? It's like Brian Elliott woke up one morning and thought "you know what? I'm Brian Elliott". Still, if you're going to be the worst PDO team in the league, you may as well also be a dominant puck-possession squad so you can still make the playoffs. That team is so good, but nobody will know it because they've commit to Brian Elliott for two seasons and Jaro Halak can't seem to string together any decent games.
     
  • Los Angeles couldn't buy a save, so they figured out how to shoot pucks. Uh oh. If this were an 82-game sked, I'd bet on them catching up to Anaheim.
63811cbf517d2d685ea09e103488ea3a
Cam Charron is a BC hockey fan that writes about hockey on many different websites including this one.