NHLNumbers Predictive Power Rankings, 3/17/13
Derek Zona
March 17 2013 07:45AM
Photo by Dan4th Nicholas via Wikimedia Commons
Time is running out on those teams chasing cursed lady luck. The Kings have come charging from way back, but Anaheim's goaltenders are keeping the Ducks afloat. The Wild keep hitting the hard-ways and grabbing points from the rest of the conference and get to play the awful Northwest to close out the season - no team outside of the Southeast plays an easier schedule the rest of the way. And the Leafs, oh those Leafs, have used an incredible special teams heater to overcome their shot woes.
These rankings aren't presented as a look at the current standings or last couple of weeks' worth of performances. Our goal is to build a predictive model that gives us a glimpse into the season-ending standings and first-round playoff matchups. Our rankings aren't based solely on the current NHL standings, though points earned are a significant portion of the model, they are based on a number of underlying metrics so the rankings are constantly in flux. This week we've added remaining opponents in the hopes of building a better model.
We're still tweaking that model, so we're not quite ready to unveil it, but consider this NHLNumbers' current best effort at predicting the standings and playoff pairings at the end of the season. One item of note - 38% of the game is luck, and we don't attempt to predict or model that 38%, and we don't plan to.
The third edition of the NHLNumbers Predictive Power Rankings:
| Rank | Move | Team | NHLNShare |
| 1 | - | Chicago Blackhawks | 2.11 |
| 2 | - | Boston Bruins | 2.57 |
| 3 | +5 | St. Louis Blues | 4.98 |
| 4 | -1 | Montreal Canadiens | 5.09 |
| 5 | -1 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 5.72 |
| 6 | - | Anaheim Ducks | 5.89 |
| 7 | +2 | Ottawa Senators | 6.18 |
| 8 | -3 | Los Angeles Kings | 7.01 |
| 9 | -2 | Vancouver Canucks | 8.35 |
| 10 | +5 | Minnesota Wild | 9.19 |
| 11 | -1 | San Jose Sharks | 10.29 |
| 12 | -2 | Carolina Hurricanes | 10.52 |
| 13 | +1 | Detroit Red Wings | 11.32 |
| 14 | +3 | New Jersey Devils | 12.29 |
| 15 | +6 | Winnipeg Jets | 12.60 |
| 16 | -4 | New York Rangers | 12.90 |
| 17 | -4 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 14.13 |
| 18 | - | Phoenix Coyotes | 14.63 |
| 19 | - | New York Islanders | 15.20 |
| 20 | -4 | Dallas Stars | 15.59 |
| 21 | -1 | Calgary Flames | 15.70 |
| 22 | - | Nashville Predators | 17.33 |
| 23 | - | Philadelphia Flyers | 17.82 |
| 24 | +2 | Edmonton Oilers | 18.11 |
| 25 | +2 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 19.49 |
| 26 | +2 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 21.03 |
| 27 | -2 | Colorado Avalanche | 21.26 |
| 28 | -4 | Washington Capitals | 21.61 |
| 29 | - | Florida Panthers | 23.32 |
| 30 | - | Buffalo Sabres | 23.50 |
Based on these rankings, the predicted playoff matchups look like this:
| Western Conference | Eastern Conference | |||
| 1 | Chicago Blackhawks | 1 | Boston Bruins | |
| 8 | Detroit Red Wings | 8 | New York Rangers | |
| 4 | St. Louis Blues | 4 | Montreal Canadiens | |
| 5 | Los Angeles Kings | 5 | Ottawa Senators | |
| 2 | Anaheim Ducks | 2 | Pittsburgh Penguins | |
| 7 | San Jose Sharks | 7 | Winnipeg Jets | |
| 3 | Vancouver Canucks | 3 | Carolina Hurricanes | |
| 6 | Minnesota Wild | 6 | New Jersey Devils | |
These other 14 teams will be in the running for the #1 pick overall:
| 17 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| 18 | Phoenix Coyotes |
| 19 | New York Islanders |
| 20 | Dallas Stars |
| 21 | Calgary Flames |
| 22 | Nashville Predators |
| 23 | Philadelphia Flyers |
| 24 | Edmonton Oilers |
| 25 | Columbus Blue Jackets |
| 26 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 27 | Colorado Avalanche |
| 28 | Washington Capitals |
| 29 | Florida Panthers |
| 30 | Buffalo Sabres |
Assuming the bottom 14 teams draft in the order given above, it would be a phenomenal windfall for teams like Phialdelphia, Edmonton or Tampa Bay to be able to pick up prospects like Barkov, Monahan or Zadorov.
Drafting anywhere in the top ten this year could potentially net a team a core player.
As for the playoff picture, personally I would love to see two Canadian teams in Ottawa and Montreal face off, and two Original Six face off in Detroit and Chicago.
Blues and Kings? Hitchcock vs Sutter? I'd record it and watch the next time I suffer a bout of insomnia.
Great stuff. A couple of questions: What does NHLNShare stand for? How does that equate to final point totals? And do you happen to have a final point total for both the Ducks and Kings?
I'm trying to figure out how the Habs posted a perfect record since the 11th but still dropped one place because the Blues (THE BLUES?!) are now ranked above them. No respect for the Canadian clubs from and American sites as usual.
@Avro Arrow
My God, you're a Canadian site?! Now I'm REALLY disappointed in you. Using an American server and kicking the best Canadian team in the NHL. You must be from Toronto or something.
You clearly didn't read the article and only looked at the rankings.
@Avro Arrow
Montreal is ranked 4th overall and you're BITCHING about it?
The rankings are interesting but really its' tough to get more information from the ranking without knowing how they are ranked and the magnitudes of the differences. As Phil S noted, what does NHLNShare stand for? My team, the Penguins, is ranked 5 , but without knowing the differences between the ranks it's difficult to evaluate them. For example, you have Boston as being much better than Pittsburgh by NHLNShare, but given that the Penguins just beat them twice without some key players , I have a hard time accepting that there would be a big difference between the teams (such as NHLNshare would suggest). Of course with 38% of games being "luck" , it's not unlikely for that Pittsburgh to win twice, but I would think that given the difference in NHLNShare that would be much more unlikely. Just curious, but have you thought about taking a Bayesian approach to this? Basically, keep updating your priors to incorporate the most recent information.