PDO numbers by NHL team - Mar 18

Cam Charron
March 18 2013 05:52AM

PDO doesn't stand for anything, but that doesn't mean we can't learn anything from adding up the overall shooting and save percentages for a team at even strength. A layman's explanation for 'PDO' and why we use it can be found here over at the Backhand Shelf. Basically, if a team is playing with a PDO number way higher than 1.000, they're producing above their expected output. If a team is playing with a PDO number below 1.000, they're producing below their expected output. Over the course of a long season, the number will generally correct itself.

For any daily updates you may be so inclined to find, Hockey Analysis compiles these numbersbehindthenet.ca has a page that offers a team's shooting percentage and a team's save percentage numbers, and we'll use those for weekly rankings here at NHLNumbers. Shooting percentage is the 17th column from the left on BTN's team shots page—the first one to say SPCT. It's cousin, team save percentage, is three columns to the right also saying SPCT. The team shooting percentage needs to be subtracted from 1000 to get the actual number.

I've also included team Fenwick Close % numbers, pulled from behindthenet.ca as well. Treat it as a proxy for the amount of time each team spends with the puck. Any team with a rate over 50% is pretty good and should make the playoffs in an 82-game season unless something goes horribly wrong.  

Here are the team PDO standings through games played Sunday night:

TEAM Team Shot% Team Save% PDO Fenwick Close %
ANA 11.50% 0.932 1.047 45.97%
CHI 9.40% 0.933 1.027 55.27%
MTL 9.80% 0.929 1.027 53.36%
T.B 11.40% 0.910 1.024 43.89%
PIT 10.60% 0.914 1.020 51.69%
TOR 10.30% 0.916 1.019 44.80%
CAR 9.60% 0.922 1.018 52.73%
DET 7.90% 0.931 1.010 51.64%
BOS 8.50% 0.924 1.009 54.61%
VAN 9.40% 0.913 1.007 53.66%
OTT 6.20% 0.941 1.003 50.37%
WSH 8.20% 0.919 1.001 46.36%
BUF 8.40% 0.915 0.999 44.16%
MIN 8.20% 0.915 0.997 47.42%
NSH 7.80% 0.919 0.997 46.51%
CBJ 7.70% 0.919 0.996 44.04%
COL 8.00% 0.916 0.996 47.63%
L.A 9.20% 0.904 0.996 57.65%
NYR 7.10% 0.924 0.995 53.53%
WPG 8.40% 0.911 0.995 50.24%
PHX 8.30% 0.909 0.992 50.46%
DAL 8.20% 0.906 0.988 50.52%
S.J 6.20% 0.925 0.987 51.20%
STL 8.70% 0.900 0.987 54.85%
EDM 6.30% 0.923 0.986 45.45%
CGY 9.20% 0.891 0.983 50.88%
N.J 7.30% 0.906 0.979 53.71%
NYI 8.30% 0.892 0.975 49.57%
PHI 7.50% 0.897 0.972 50.78%
FLA 7.30% 0.891 0.964 50.70%

Last week's numbers here.

  • Chicago scored six times at even strength on Saturday, and as a result, boost up from fifth to second in team PDO. That's helped by the fact the Toronto Maple Leafs have been on a five-game losing streak where their goalies can't stop anything. Funny how that works.
     
  • We're seeing some balance on the low end of the scale. Last week, five teams were below .975 in PDO, but predictably, we're down to two after the Islanders, Flames and Blues strung some wins together and pulled into more normal territory. Brutal job for the Florida Panthers down there at the bottom, they've lost six straight and three games this week by an 11-6 margin. Their possession numbers are actually above 50, but they've sustained some injuries, don't have a functional goaltender and can't score any goals.
     
  • The St. Louis Blues, at 16-10-2, are showing what you can do by being a good puck-possession team. Despite getting a fraction of the goaltending they were getting last season, they're competing in the Western Conference and will definitely be a team to contend with come playoff time.
     
  • Two Pacific Division teams of note: San Jose and Los Angeles. The Sharks are another outlier on the low end, getting great possession numbers but can't seem to get any shots to go in. Los Angeles were hovering near the bottom in this about a month ago but predictably, they've regressed right up to the mean. They're scoring goals this year, and have been able to shake off lousy goaltending.
     
  • If this were an 82-game season, I'd put money on LA surpassing Anaheim. There have been some reports that Anaheim's home shot counter is overcounting opponent shots, which would help out save percentages for the Ducks, but their possession numbers are just as bleak on the road. I haven't watched many Ducks games so I can't comment directly on their record, but my feeling is that it's a house of cards right now, just based on the fact their PDO is higher than even that of the Minnesota Wild after this amount of games last season. The Ducks aren't getting outshot as badly as Minnesota were, so some of their regression could be cushioned.
     
  • Vancouver averaged the highest PDO as a team over the last three years, and now they're getting the PDO of a normal team, and everybody is calling for the coach's head. Who'da thunk it?
     
  • Montreal could be close to a losing streak like Toronto had. They've been a hit-or-miss group this season, and have lost just once in regulation in 17 games. No team is that good. Chicago ain't that good, Los Angeles ain't that good, Montreal sure as beans ain't that good.
     
  • Poor Tampa. Four games below .500 with one of the higher PDOs in the league. 2011 is looking more and more like a fluke every day.
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Cam Charron is a BC hockey fan that writes about hockey on many different websites including this one.
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#1 MathMan
March 18 2013, 10:17AM
Trash it!
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What do you mean by the Habs having been "hit or miss" this season? Curious about the terminology is all.

Pretty obvious that their PDO is lifting their record to higher than it should be, but they've still been a 53+% Fenwick club all year at evens and have solid shot rates on both special teams. A losing streak is certainly possible, even probable before the end of the season, but a lengthy collapse while keeping those possession rates up would require serious bad luck.

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#3 Baron Bytes
March 18 2013, 02:42PM
Trash it!
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I haven't seen them being horribly outplayed in a while so they might be due. A lot of early goals have been happening for them and that can't last either. The 2 teams they are facing this week they had trouble against earlier (NYI, BUF). So they could have a hard week.

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