NHLNumbers Predictive Power Rankings, 3/3/13
Derek Zona
March 03 2013 09:39AM
Photo by Leech44, via Wikimedia Commons
We're 40% of the way through the lockout-shortened 2013 season and three things are certain - Chicago, Anaheim, Boston and Montreal are in the playoffs; Columbus and Florida aren't; and the New York Islanders would be in the playoffs even if they had just average goaltending, like Minnesota.
These rankings aren't presented as a look at the current standings or last couple of weeks' worth of performances. Our goal is to build a predictive model that gives us a glimpse into the season-ending standings and first-round playoff matchups. Our rankings aren't based solely on the current NHL standings, though points earned are a significant portion of the model, they are based on a number of underlying metrics so the rankings are constantly in flux. This week we've added remaining opponents in the hopes of building a better model. Many have asked about how injuries are accounted for in the predictive model. They aren't included - yet.
We're still tweaking that model, so we're not quite ready to unveil it, but consider this NHLNumbers' current best effort at predicting the standings and playoff pairings at the end of the season. One item of note - 38% of the game is luck, and we don't attempt to predict or model that 38%, and we don't plan to.
The second edition of the NHLNumbers Predictive Power Rankings:
| Rank | Team | NHLNShare |
| 1 | Chicago Blackhawks | 2.02 |
| 2 | Boston Bruins | 2.05 |
| 3 | St. Louis Blues | 4.92 |
| 4 | Montreal Canadiens | 5.13 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 5.81 |
| 6 | Vancouver Canucks | 5.90 |
| 7 | San Jose Sharks | 6.13 |
| 8 | Ottawa Senators | 7.22 |
| 9 | Anaheim Ducks | 7.48 |
| 10 | Los Angeles Kings | 8.00 |
| 11 | New Jersey Devils | 9.75 |
| 12 | New York Rangers | 11.15 |
| 13 | Detroit Red Wings | 11.65 |
| 14 | Carolina Hurricanes | 11.66 |
| 15 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 12.06 |
| 16 | Phoenix Coyotes | 12.58 |
| 17 | Dallas Stars | 13.01 |
| 18 | Philadelphia Flyers | 13.38 |
| 19 | Minnesota Wild | 13.87 |
| 20 | Edmonton Oilers |
13.91 |
| 21 | Winnipeg Jets | 15.89 |
| 22 | Calgary Flames | 16.17 |
| 23 | Colorado Avalanche | 16.63 |
| 24 | New York Islanders | 16.64 |
| 25 | Nashville Predators |
16.73 |
| 26 | Washington Capitals | 18.15 |
| 27 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 18.64 |
| 28 | Florida Panthers | 20.38 |
| 29 | Buffalo Sabres | 21.15 |
| 30 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 22.36 |
Based on these rankings, the predicted playoff matchups look like this:
| 1 | Chicago Blackhawks | 1 | Boston Bruins | |
| 8 | Phoenix Coyotes | 8 | Toronto Maple Leafs | |
| 4 | St. Louis Blues | 4 | Montreal Canadiens | |
| 5 | Anaheim Ducks | 5 | Ottawa Senators | |
| 2 | Vancouver Canucks | 2 | Pittsburgh Penguins | |
| 7 | Detroit Red Wings | 7 | New York Rangers | |
| 3 | San Jose Sharks | 3 | Carolina Hurricanes | |
| 6 | Los Angeles Kings | 6 | New Jersey Devils |
These other 14 teams will be in the running for the #1 pick overall:
| 17 | Dallas Stars |
| 18 | Philadelphia Flyers |
| 19 | Minnesota Wild |
| 20 | Edmonton Oilers |
| 21 | Winnipeg Jets |
| 22 | Calgary Flames |
| 23 | Colorado Avalanche |
| 24 | New York Islanders |
| 25 | Nashville Predators |
| 26 | Washington Capitals |
| 27 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 28 | Florida Panthers |
| 29 | Buffalo Sabres |
| 30 | Columbus Blue Jackets |
I have a question, does power play PDO regress to the mean like Even Strength PDO? Would a team with a penalty kill rate of 90% regress towards 81-82%?
Hmmm ... interesting and plausible, though as you haven't factored in injuries we should still play out the rest of the season. Also, I agree Anaheim is playing over their heads - because Getzlaf is after a new contract? (can you factor that in?) - and may revert to form soon. But my guess is LA will reach top of the Pacific, not San Jose.
In theory Power Play PDO should regress to the mean eventually.
But remember how tiny the sample size is for special teams - it's so tiny that there's no reason to expect regression to necessarily occur over even an 82 game season.
Garik16: Then what differentiates the best special teams from the worst? Is it the ability to draw and avoid penalties?
@Ty
It seems like shots + missed shots for rate is the best predictor of future PP%, while goals against rate is the best predictor of future PK%. Source: http://objectivenhl.blogspot.com/2011/05/loose-ends-part-iii-c-power-play.html
Drawing/avoiding penalties is no doubt important, too. Montreal has been on the power play 31 more times than Boston already, and that's probably an extra 5 goals or so--nearly one win in the standings thanks to drawing PPs alone.