PDO numbers by NHL team - Mar 4

Cam Charron
March 04 2013 04:52PM

PDO doesn't stand for anything, but that doesn't mean we can't learn anything from adding up the overall shooting and save percentages for a team at even strength. A layman's explanation for 'PDO' and why we use it can be found here over at the Backhand Shelf. Basically, if a team is playing with a PDO number way higher than 1.000, they're producing above their expected output. If a team is playing with a PDO number below 1.000, they're producing below their expected output. Over the course of a long season, the number will generally correct itself.

No website offers Team PDO as a sortable statistic, but behindthenet.ca has a page that offers a team's shooting percentage and a team's save percentage numbers. Shooting percentage is the 17th column from the left on BTN's team shots page—the first one to say SPCT. It's cousin, team save percentage, is three columns to the right also saying SPCT. The team shooting percentage needs to be subtracted from 1000 to get the actual number. 

Here are the team PDO standings through games played Sunday night:

TEAM Team Shot % Team Save % Team PDO
Anaheim Ducks 11.70% 0.920 1.037
Montreal Canadiens 10.00% 0.930 1.030
Toronto Maple Leafs 10.00% 0.930 1.030
Chicago Blackhawks 9.00% 0.937 1.027
Tampa Bay Lightning 11.10% 0.907 1.018
Carolina Hurricanes 9.30% 0.922 1.015
Detroit Red Wings 8.10% 0.933 1.014
Vancouver Canucks 9.30% 0.918 1.011
Ottawa Senators 5.80% 0.948 1.006
Colorado Avalanche 8.60% 0.920 1.006
New Jersey Devils 8.10% 0.923 1.004
Dallas Stars 9.20% 0.912 1.004
Boston Bruins 8.50% 0.918 1.003
Pittsburgh Penguins 9.50% 0.906 1.001
Nashville Predators 7.20% 0.929 1.001
San Jose Sharks 6.10% 0.939 1.000
Buffalo Sabres 8.50% 0.914 0.999
New York Rangers 7.80% 0.920 0.998
Minnesota Wild 7.80% 0.919 0.997
Phoenix Coyotes 9.00% 0.904 0.994
Winnipeg Jets 8.10% 0.911 0.992
Washington Capitals 7.60% 0.916 0.992
Columbus Blue Jackets 8.70% 0.902 0.989
Los Angeles Kings 7.60% 0.912 0.988
Philadelphia Flyers 8.30% 0.903 0.986
Edmonton Oilers 5.90% 0.923 0.982
Calgary Flames 8.70% 0.891 0.978
St. Louis Blues 7.20% 0.894 0.966
Florida Panthers 7.00% 0.896 0.966
New York Islanders 8.10% 0.882 0.963

Last week's numbers here .

The only thing I have to add this week is highlighting both Edmonton and Toronto. They made a trade today (story on Leafs Nation - story on Oilers Nation) exchanging noted puncher Mike Brown for a pick. The Oilers, whose PDO is unsustainably low, got Brown from the Leafs, whose PDO is unsustainably high. When the numbers normalize naturally, the Oilers will win more games and the Leafs may lose more games. The regression for the Leafs may boot them out of the playoffs. Commentators everywhere will point to this move as why that would happen.

I am here to tell you today that Mike Brown is not the reason the Leafs are shooting well and the Oilers are shooting poorly.

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Cam Charron is a BC hockey fan that writes about hockey on many different websites including this one.
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#1 FlandersBreivik
March 04 2013, 05:01PM
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Question: In the last three years, the Leafs lowest shooting percentage is 9%, which I would imagine is above league average. Is this a massive multi-year string of good luck, or do the Leafs shoot slightly better than other teams? 10% is unsustainable, yes, but do you think they could finish between 9-9.5%?

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#2 Patrick Johnston
March 04 2013, 10:51PM
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Charron, don't mess with the clearly well-set-up Mike Brown narrative. Truculence of the Brown type was exactly what the Oilers were missing and the Leafs will regret giving up.

Numbers, shmumbers.

Historical trends are all just noise anyway, just ask Nate Silver. *

*dead giveaway, wink wink.

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#3 Ryan Gilmore
March 09 2013, 06:47PM
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This is great stuff man. Very helpful, keep up the awesome work!

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