PDO numbers by NHL team - April 1

Cam Charron
April 01 2013 11:44AM

PDO doesn't stand for anything, but that doesn't mean we can't learn anything from adding up the overall shooting and save percentages for a team at even strength. A layman's explanation for 'PDO' and why we use it can be found here over at the Backhand Shelf. Basically, if a team is playing with a PDO number way higher than 1.000, they're producing above their expected output. If a team is playing with a PDO number below 1.000, they're producing below their expected output. Over the course of a long season, the number will generally correct itself.

For any daily updates you may be so inclined to find, Hockey Analysis compiles these numbersbehindthenet.ca has a page that offers a team's shooting percentage and a team's save percentage numbers, and we'll use those for weekly rankings here at NHLNumbers. Shooting percentage is the 17th column from the left on BTN's team shots page—the first one to say SPCT. It's cousin, team save percentage, is three columns to the right also saying SPCT. The team shooting percentage needs to be subtracted from 1000 to get the actual number.

I've also included team Fenwick Close % numbers, pulled from behindthenet.ca as well. Treat it as a proxy for the amount of time each team spends with the puck. Any team with a rate over 50% is pretty good and should make the playoffs in an 82-game season unless something goes horribly wrong.  

Here are the team PDO standings through games played Sunday night:

TEAM Fen Close % Team Shot % Team Save % PDO
Anaheim 47.25% 10.6% 0.927 1.033
Toronto 44.94% 11.0% 0.921 1.031
Pittsburgh 51.24% 9.9% 0.929 1.028
Chicago 54.40% 9.8% 0.928 1.026
Montreal 53.47% 9.2% 0.927 1.019
Tampa Bay 44.99% 11.2% 0.906 1.018
Vancouver 53.67% 8.9% 0.922 1.011
Carolina 51.54% 8.7% 0.923 1.010
Minnesota 48.32% 8.8% 0.921 1.009
Buffalo 43.94% 8.4% 0.921 1.005
Washington 46.87% 8.5% 0.920 1.005
Boston 55.03% 8.3% 0.921 1.004
Columbus 44.52% 8.8% 0.916 1.004
Ottawa 49.91% 6.8% 0.936 1.004
Nashville 47.11% 8.5% 0.918 1.003
Dallas 48.85% 9.3% 0.909 1.002
Detroit 51.73% 7.5% 0.926 1.001
Los Angeles 58.60% 8.8% 0.909 0.997
Edmonton 44.72% 7.3% 0.923 0.996
NY Rangers 53.52% 6.6% 0.928 0.994
Phoenix 50.09% 8.1% 0.912 0.993
San Jose 51.54% 6.5% 0.925 0.990
Winnipeg 50.27% 7.8% 0.910 0.988
Colorado 47.42% 7.4% 0.907 0.981
New Jersey 53.67% 7.4% 0.906 0.980
St. Louis 54.46% 8.2% 0.897 0.979
Calgary 48.96% 9.0% 0.884 0.974
Philadelphia 48.92% 7.3% 0.901 0.974
NY Islanders 49.70% 8.1% 0.892 0.973
Florida 51.62% 6.7% 0.902 0.969

Here are PDO numbers from last week.

Thoughts:

  • The Ducks save percentage has come back to normal, but their shooting rate is still out there. Mind you, Anaheim have now lost five of six. Lucky devils get to play three straight against Dallas before the streak becomes too noticeable, however.
     
  • Can LA catch Anaheim? Eight points back with 11 to play, it's not impossible. The Kings are still the best team in hockey by virtually every predictive measure with the exception of astrology. Astrology, the study of forming conclusions about the future by stargazing, selects the Penguins to win the Stanley Cup.
     
  • I wonder what the Penguins shoot like when Crosby is out of the lineup. There's a good project for me at some point this week.
     
  • Florida is a plus-possession team. They have been debilitated by injuries and have absolutely no goaltending. Nobody's scoring goals for them. They aren't this bad. They're going to get a high pick, and likely waste it because the Florida Panthers, if history is any judge, are not a particularly well-run hockey team compared to the other teams in the league.
     
  • Actually four of the league's lowest PDO teams I would say are among the bottom as far as "well-run" teams go. But then you see St. Louis there and go "hmm, they're a good team". No goaltending this year apparently but despite a crazy-low PDO, they have high possession numbers and should sliiiide into the playoffs as a low seed.
     
  • Can anybody think of a recent team that's been one of the top possession teams in the league that made the playoffs as an 8-seed on the last weekend? Tell me how that wound up.
     
  • Columbus are still drunk. They'll probably fizzle out of this whatever run they're on and not make the playoffs. Sure is funny to hear people talk about how good Columbus is. Them and Anaheim. Quick: Name three former Sergei Fedorov teams in playoff contention right now.
     
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Cam Charron is a BC hockey fan that writes about hockey on many different websites including this one.