2013 NHL Draft Consensus - Seth Jones Rules, Valeri Nichushkin On The Rise

Derek Zona
April 13 2013 09:42AM

NHL Draft aerial shot
Photo by: Bri Weldon, via Wikipedia Commons

Barring a very late surprise run up these rankings, the players at the top of these rankings have broken up into a couple of very clear stratifications.  Seth Jones is a clear #1 at this point, with 6 of the 7 1st-place rankings among our sources.  Then the next two on the list - Halifax teammates Nathan MacKinnon and Jonathan Drouin are well ahead of the rest of the pack.  And mirroring that same gap, Aleksander Barkov and Valeri Nichushkin are now well clear at #4 and #5. 

Nichushkin, the big (6'4 198) Russian winger is the biggest mover in the top 18 this month, up two spots to #5.  He's had a marvelous KHL playoffs as his Traktor Chelyabinsk team has advanced to the Gagarin Cup Finals against Dynamo Moscow.  But Nichushkin will not see the end of the series - he's been at the centre of a national controversy, and will leave to play with the national team after game 4.

The sources for the consensus list are Bob McKenzie, Future Considerations, ISS, Ryan Kennedy, Craig Button, Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus, and The Scouting Report.  Their rankings are weight by their accuracy in ranking previous drafts: Bob McKenzie's rankings carry the most weight as he's the most accurate prognosticator in the group.

#   Pos   Name   DOB   HT   WT   Team   Move
1 D Seth Jones 11/3/1994 6'3 215 Portland Winterhawks 0
2 F Nathan MacKinnon 9/1/1995 5'11 180 Halifax Moosehead 0
3 F Jonathan Drouin 3/27/1995 5'11 180 Halifax Moosehead 0
4 F Aleksander Barkov 9/2/1995 6'2 205 Tappara 0
5 F Valeri Nichushkin 3/4/1995 6'4 198 Chelyabinsk 2
6 F Elias Lindholm 12/2/1994 6'0 183 Brynas -1
7 F Sean Monahan 10/12/1994 6'2 180 Ottawa 67s -1
8 D Darnell Nurse 2/4/1995 6'4 185 Soo Greyhounds 0
9 F Hunter Shinkaruk 11/13/1994 5'10 170 Medicine Hat Tigers 1
10 D Rasmus Ristolainen 10/27/1994 6'3 210 TPS Turku -1
11 D Nikita Zadorov 4/16/1995 6'4 225 London Knights 1
12 D Ryan Pulock 10/6/1994 6'0 195 Brandon Wheat Kings -1
13 F Adam Erne 4/20/1995 6'0 200 Quebec Remparts 0
14 D Josh Morrissey 3/28/1995 6'0 185 Prince Albert Raiders 0
15 F Max Domi 3/2/1995 5'9 185 London Knights 1
16 F Curtis Lazar 2/2/1995 6'0 190 Edmonton Oil Kings 1
17 F Anthony Mantha 9/16/1994 6'4 180 Val - D'or 1
18 F Frederik Gauthier 4/26/1995 6'1 210 Rimouski Oceanic -3
19 F Bo Horvat 4/5/1995 6'0 195 London Knights 8
20 F Alexander Wennberg 9/22/1995 6'1 174 Djurgarden 1
21 F Kerby Rychel 10/7/1994 6'1 185 Windsor Spitfires 1
22 D Robert Hagg 2/8/1995 6'2 201 MODO -3
23 F Andre Burakovsky 2/9/1995 6'1 175 Malmo 3
24 F Artturi Lehkonen 7/4/1995 5'10 163 TPS Turku -4
25 F Jason Dickinson 7/4/1995 6'2 179 Guelph Storm -2
26 F Morgan Klimchuk 3/2/1995 5'11 174 Regina Pats -2
27 D Steve Santini 3/7/1995 6'3 205 USNT 8
28 F Valentin Zykov 5/15/1995 6' 210 Baie Comeau -3
29 F J.T. Compher 4/8/1995 6'0 170 USNT -1
30 F Ryan Hartman 9/20/1994 5'11 185 Plymouth Whalers -1
31 F Jacob De la Rose 5/20/1995 6'2 185 Leksand 2
32 F Nicolas Petan 3/22/1995 5'9 155 Portland Winterhawks 11
33 D Ian McCoshen 8/5/1995 6'3 205 Waterloo Blackhawks -2
34 D Shea Theodore 9/3/1995 6'2 182 Seattle Thunderbirds 3
35 D Madison Bowey 4/22/1995 6'1 195 Kelowna Rockets 1
36 D Keaton Thompson 9/14/1995 6'1 170 USNT -6
37 G Zach Fucale 5/28/1995 6'0 170 Halifax Moosehead -5
38 F Anthony Duclair 7/26/1995 6'0 160 Quebec Remparts -4
39 F Pavel Buchnevich 4/17/1995 6'0 165 Almaz Cherepovets 1
40 F Connor Hurley 9/15/1995 6'1 175 Edina High School 4
41 F Laurent Dauphin 3/26/1995 6'0 187 Chicoutimi 4
42 D Samuel Morin 7/12/1995 6'5 184 Rimouski Oceanic 7
43 F Justin Bailey 7/1/1995 6'3 194 Kitchener Rangers 3
44 F William Carrier 12/20/1994 6'0 195 Cape Breton -5
45 F Ryan Kujawinski 3/30/1995 6'2 180 Kingston Frontenacs -7
46 F Nick Sorensen 10/23/1994 6'1 168 Quebec Remparts 1
47 F Hudson Fasching 7/28/1995 6'3 208 USNT -5
48 G Eric Comrie 7/6/1995 6'1 175 Tri City Americans -7
49 D Linus Arnesson 9/21/1994 6'2 180 Djurgarden 4
50 D Chris Bigras 2/22/1995 6'1 189 Owen Sound Attack 6
51 D Jan Kostalek 2/17/1995 6'0 175 Sparta Praha -1
52 D Mike Downing 5/19/1995 6'3 190 Dubuque Fighting Saints 2
53 F Ryan Fitzgerald 10/19/1994 5'9 168 Valley Jr. 7
54 D Eric Roy 10/24/1994 6'3 190 Brandon Wheat Kings -2
55 F Anton Slepyshev 5/13/1994 6'2 194 Novokuznetsk 2
56 D Mirco Mueller 3/21/1995 6'4 184 Everett Silvertips 2
57 G Spencer Martin 6/8/1995 6'2 192 Mississauga -9
58 F Stephen Harper 3/25/1995 6'2 202 Erie Otters -7
59 C Marko Dano 11/30/1994 5'11 183 Sloven Bratislava -4
60
Juuso Ikonen 1/3/1995 5'9 175 Espoo Blues 3
61 G Tristan Jarry 4/29/1995 6'2 178 Edmonton Oil Kings 3
62 D Dillon Heatherington 5/9/1995 6'2 185 Swift Current Broncos 0
63 F Sergei Tolchinsky 2/3/1995 5'7 150 Sault Ste. Marie 15
64 F Lukas Wallmark 9/5/1995 5'10 175 Skelleftea 22
65 F Taylor Cammarata 5/13/1995 5'7 155 Waterloo Blackhawks 25
66 F Jimmy Lodge 3/5/1995 6'2 165 Saginaw Spirit 0
67 G Philippe Desrosiers 8/16/1995 6'1 187 Rimouski Oceanic -8
68 D Jordan Subban 3/3/1995 5'9 175 Belleville Bulls 0
69 F Oliver Bjorkstrand 4/10/1995 5'11 164 Portland Winterhawks 6
70 F Emile Poirier 12/4/1994 6'1 183 Gatineau 42
71 F Zack Nastasiuk 3/3/095 6'1 191 Owen Sound -4
72 D Keegan Kanzig 2/26/1995 6'5 200 Victorial Royals -11
73 F Mike McCarron 3/7/1995 6'5 228 USNT 0
74 D Tommy Vannelli 1/26/1995 6'2 170 Minnetonka -9
75 F John Hayden 2/14/1995 6'2 220 USNT -4
76 F Marc-Oliver Roy 11/5/1994 6' 175 Blainville 28
77 F Bogdan Yakimov 10/4/1994 6'4 225 Nizhnekamsk -3
78 D Gustav Olofsson 1/8/1995 6'3 185 Green Bay Gamblers 36
79 F Nick Moutrey 6/24/1995 6'2 208 Saginaw Spirit 47
80 D Wilhelm Westlund 3/15/1995 6'0 178 Farjestad 12
81 D Will Butcher 1/6/1995 5'11 190 USNT 7
82 G Eamon McAdam 9/24/1995 6'2 185 Waterloo Blackhawks -12
83 F Tyler Hill 4/13/1995 6'6 225 Hotchkiss School -14
84 F Markus Soberg 4/22/1995 6' 175 Frolunda -7
85 F Evan Allen 2/3/1995 5'11 185 USNT -9
86 F Matt Murphy 5/1/1995 6'2 185 Val - D'or -7
87 F Tyler Motte 3/10/1995 5'10 165 USNT -15
88 F Nick Baptiste 8/4/1995 6' 198 Sudbury Wolves -8
89 F Connor Rankin 11/30/1994 6' 184 Tri City Americans -8
90 F Gustav Possler 11/11/1994 5'11 172 MODO -7
91 F Alex Forsberg 1/4/1995 5'9 170 Prince George  -9
92 D Brett Pesce 11/15/1995 6'3 175 New Hampshire 14
93 D Mitchell Wheaton 2/6/1995 6'4 228 Kelowna Rockets 12
94 F Tobias Liljendahl 1/10/1995 6'2 194 Djurgarden -9
95 F Adam Tambellini 11/1/1994 6'2 171 Surrey Eagles 20
96 F Jordan Maletta 4/30/1995 6'3 199 Windsor Spitfires -9
97 D Mason Geertsen 4/19/1995 6'3 199 Edmonton Oil Kings -13
98 D Martin Kokes 6/13/1995 6'2 195 Litvinov -9
99 F Cole Cassels 5/4/1995 6'0 176 Oshawa Generals -8
100 G Brendan Burke 3/11/1995 6'3 176 Portland Winterhawks -7

Rising:

  • Bo Horvat jumped 8 spots this month to #19.  Horvat began the season at #34, but his surprising offensive acumen has pushed him up the rankings.
  • The U.S. National Team's Steve Santini also moved up 8 spots and into the first round at #27.  Santini is another big, tough defenseman - it seems like that program is growing them on trees.  Santini has committed to Boston College.
  • Nicolas Petan, Portland's diminutive leaps eleven spots up to #32.  He's small, but packs a load of talent onto his frame.

Trends:

  • The first round now consists of 20 CHL players, 4 SEL players, 3 SM-Liiga players, and 2 USHL players and 1 KHL player.
  • The top 30 consists of 16 Canadians, 5 Americans, 4 Swedes, 3 Finns, and 2 Russians.
  • The first player from a country outside of those five is Jan Kostalek, the Czech defenseman, at #51.
E976572df3ea71edf6bafb00adc1c546
Avatar
#1 gcw_rocks
April 13 2013, 02:44PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
0
props

Frederik Gauthier is 6'4" or 6'5", not 6'01"

Avatar
#2 Till_Horcoff_Is_Coach
April 13 2013, 04:23PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
0
props

Great compilation.

A number of these sources have different goals in providing their list (some predicting talent and others draft order). Any chance you could re-rate the consensus list based not on accuracy of drafting position but on ability to identify talent?

For instance if you did your own re-draft of the first round from 2007-2010 and rank the sources based on accuracy to that list, then I suspect someone like Pronman would rank higher.

Cheers.

Avatar
#3 robin
April 13 2013, 09:07PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
0
props

Markus søberg should be top 30.

Avatar
#4 Stupendous Man
April 14 2013, 09:40AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
0
props

Really appreciate the great work here. Always look forward to these. I especially like the weighting idea. I believe the ISS releases its April rankings this week, and McKenzie will deliver his third set of rankings in a couple of weeks. It will be interesting to see what impact those updates have on your next compilation.

Avatar
#5 Rickithebear
April 16 2013, 02:37PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
0
props

Vincent Dunn is sept 14/95 birth.

he is 5'11" 182lb 53GM 25G 27A 52 Pt 98PIM +21 he projects as 52/53 * 82 * .76 = 61PT 29G 32A NHLE he was suspended 2 games for a slur.

Only the top 5 forwards project at higher points He is equal to domi in the top 20. Lazar @ 16 projects to 40 pt.

Comments are closed for this article.