NHLNumbers Predictive Power Rankings, 4-14-13

Derek Zona
April 14 2013 06:56AM

Michael Grabner
Photo by Robert Kowal via Wikimedia Commons

The season winds down and only a few playoff positions are still open.  We're still churning through our power rankings model based on underlying statistics and their predicative ability.  Our rankings aren't based solely on the current NHL standings, though points earned are a portion of the model, they are based on a number of underlying metrics so the rankings are constantly in flux. 

We're still tweaking the model, so we're not quite ready to unveil it, but consider this NHLNumbers' current best effort at predicting the standings and playoff pairings at the end of the season.  One item of note - 38% of the game is luck, and we don't attempt to predict or model that 38%, and we don't plan to.

The latest edition of the NHLNumbers Predictive Power Rankings:

Rank Team NHLNShare
1 Chicago Blackhawks 1.43
2 Pittsburgh Penguins 2.64
3 Montreal Canadiens 3.98
4 Anaheim Ducks 4.08
5 Boston Bruins 4.85
6 Vancouver Canucks 6.34
7 Los Angeles Kings 7.44
8 Toronto Maple Leafs 7.50
9 St. Louis Blues 8.24
10 San Jose Sharks 9.25
11 Ottawa Senators 10.13
12 Minnesota Wild 11.85
13 Washington Capitals 12.76
14 New York Rangers 12.98
15 New York Islanders 14.12
16 Detroit Red Wings 14.88
17 Dallas Stars 15.41
18 Columbus Blue Jackets 17.55
19 Phoenix Coyotes 17.82
20 New Jersey Devils 19.04
21 Winnipeg Jets 19.16
22 Edmonton Oilers 21.34
23 Buffalo Sabres 21.43
24 Philadelphia Flyers 22.67
25 Nashville Predators 22.87
26 Tampa Bay Lightning 23.51
27 Carolina Hurricanes 24.62
28 Calgary Flames 24.71
29 Colorado Avalanche 27.31
30 Florida Panthers 27.40

Based on these rankings, the predicted playoff matchups look like this:

Western Conference
Eastern Conference
1 Chicago Blackhawks
1 Pittsburgh Penguins
8 Detroit Red Wings
8 New York Islanders





4 Los Angeles Kings
4 Boston Bruins
5 St. Louis Blues
5 Toronto Maple Leafs










2 Anaheim Ducks
2 Montreal Canadiens
7 Minnesota Wild
7 New York Rangers





3 Vancouver Canucks
3 Washington Capitals
6 San Jose Sharks
6 Ottawa Senators

These other 14 teams will be in the running for Seth Jones:

17 Dallas Stars
18 Columbus Blue Jackets
19 Phoenix Coyotes
20 New Jersey Devils
21 Winnipeg Jets
22 Edmonton Oilers
23 Buffalo Sabres
24 Philadelphia Flyers
25 Nashville Predators
26 Tampa Bay Lightning
27 Carolina Hurricanes
28 Calgary Flames
29 Colorado Avalanche
30 Florida Panthers

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#1 HandKnit
April 14 2013, 09:37AM
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With the Leafs way up in eighth, can I assume that points accrued and goaltending outweigh the underlying metrics?

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#2 dan
April 14 2013, 07:30PM
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Absolutely no chance ANA MTL & Tor are better than LA & Van. Number guys should know to account for small sample sizes. 40 games is only ~25% of what is needed.

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#3 dan
April 14 2013, 09:10PM
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Here are my Numbers from detailed formulas:

I stand corrected MTL is as good as you suggest -- Tor & Ana not so much! DET is not as bad as you suggest.

1.PIT 2.CHI 3.VAN 4.MTL 5.BOS 6.L.A 7.STL 8.OTT 9.PHX 10.S.J 11.DET 12.NYR 13.ANA 14.WSH 15.TOR 16.MIN 17.DAL 18.NYI 19.CAR 20.WPG 21.PHI 22.N.J 23.NSH 24.CBJ 25.BUF 26.EDM 27.COL 28.T.B 29.FLA 30.CGY

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#4 Murphy
April 15 2013, 02:11PM
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Dan, you clearly have no idea what these rankings are supposed to be.

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#5 dan
April 17 2013, 10:18PM
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@Murphy

Thx for expressing yr ignorance here....

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