PDO numbers by NHL team - April 22

Cam Charron
April 22 2013 09:46AM

PDO doesn't stand for anything, but that doesn't mean we can't learn anything from adding up the overall shooting and save percentages for a team at even strength. A layman's explanation for 'PDO' and why we use it can be found here over at the Backhand Shelf. Basically, if a team is playing with a PDO number way higher than 1.000, they're producing above their expected output. If a team is playing with a PDO number below 1.000, they're producing below their expected output. Over the course of a long season, the number will generally correct itself.

For any daily updates you may be so inclined to find, Hockey Analysis compiles these numbersbehindthenet.ca has a page that offers a team's shooting percentage and a team's save percentage numbers, and we'll use those for weekly rankings here at NHLNumbers. Shooting percentage is the 17th column from the left on BTN's team shots page—the first one to say SPCT. It's cousin, team save percentage, is three columns to the right also saying SPCT. The team shooting percentage needs to be subtracted from 1000 to get the actual number.

I've also included team Fenwick Close % numbers, pulled from behindthenet.ca as well. Treat it as a proxy for the amount of time each team spends with the puck. Any team with a rate over 50% is pretty good and should make the playoffs in an 82-game season unless something goes horribly wrong.    

Here are the team PDO standings through games played Sunday night:  

TEAM Fenwick Close % Team Shot % Team Save % PDO
Toronto 43.80% 11.00% 0.922 1.032
Pittsburgh 50.28% 9.80% 0.929 1.027
Anaheim 47.56% 9.80% 0.926 1.024
Chicago 56.12% 9.40% 0.925 1.019
Washington 47.24% 9.00% 0.926 1.016
Tampa Bay 44.75% 10.50% 0.910 1.015
Vancouver 51.85% 8.90% 0.926 1.015
Lumbus 44.86% 9.00% 0.924 1.014
Dallas 47.95% 10.00% 0.912 1.012
Boston 54.27% 8.00% 0.928 1.008
Montreal 53.35% 8.90% 0.917 1.006
Buffalo 43.44% 8.40% 0.921 1.005
NY Rangers 53.25% 7.40% 0.930 1.004
Phoenix 50.00% 7.90% 0.925 1.004
Ottawa 51.92% 6.70% 0.935 1.002
Edmonton 44.35% 7.70% 0.921 0.998
Detroit 52.87% 6.90% 0.928 0.997
Winnipeg 50.19% 8.80% 0.908 0.996
Minnesota 47.85% 8.20% 0.913 0.995
Nashville 45.81% 7.90% 0.916 0.995
San Jose 52.90% 6.70% 0.928 0.995
Los Angeles 58.20% 8.00% 0.913 0.993
St. Louis 53.75% 7.80% 0.912 0.990
NY Islanders 52.07% 8.60% 0.902 0.988
Carolina 51.60% 7.60% 0.908 0.984
Philadelphia 48.58% 8.10% 0.899 0.980
Colorado 47.09% 7.30% 0.906 0.979
New Jersey 54.96% 6.90% 0.906 0.975
Calgary 48.94% 8.50% 0.889 0.974
Florida 49.58% 6.50% 0.899 0.964

Last week's numbers found here.

Thoughts:

  • It's all about #Lumbus this week. Nobody is pulling for #Lumbus more than me. Their shot up the PDO standings is nearly identical to their week-to-week change in points percentage (lucky I graph everything now):

  • On February 25, a .981 PDO and a 6-12-4 record. It may have been curtains for them there. Their team save percentage, mostly Steve Mason at that point, was a mere .900! Sergei Bobrovsky came in and they've gone 16-5-3 since. #Lumbus are proof that even a 48-game season can be long. It may be the right length for them. With just a 44.86% Fenwick Close percentage, #Lumbus's record is an illusion. But it's still fun as hell.
     
  • Fun fact: Sergei Bobrovsky was once a Philadelphia Flyer.
     
  • Last week we had seven teams outside the bounds we can expect by chance of about 1.025 and .975. This week we're down to four, so math is fightin' really hard to win this war against statistical anomalies Calgary and Anaheim. The teams' respective hot and cold streaks are helping out there.
     
  • The Toronto Maple Leafs make the playoffs and their PDO hardly moved an inch all season long. That's also fun to watch because other than their coach's insistence on having two goons in the lineup any given night, they have a lot of players easy to root for like James Reimer and Phil Kessel and Nazem Kadri and a cast of players virtually written off before the start of the season. They're going to make the playoffs and their fans are going to have so much fun and be so obnoxious and it will make the public broadcaster tonnes of money so they can write another sitcom about non-white families in Saskatchewan, I guess.
     
  • Scary thought: the New York Islanders are in 6th place and their PDO is just .988. I wrote some words about that team here. They're also fun to watch. #Lumbus-East, maybe, but without the cute Twitter account.
     
  • San Jose, St. Louis and Los Angeles are grouped neatly together in the PDO standings. With their good shot differential numbers and lower-than-expected records this season, one of the three is going to surprise in the playoffs.
     
  • The New York Rangers could be the team in the Eastern Conference to do that. They've been out-performing their record all season and have started to score some goals. Low shot percentage all year...
     
  • Lou Lamoriello TP'd the Mount Olympus of the Hockey Gods. Their Corsi Tied is 54.9%. They'd be the team with the highest Corsi Tied rate to ever miss the postseason, beating out the record set by the 52.9% 2010 St. Louis Blues.
     
  • Ergo, time to hang 'em up, Marty.
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Cam Charron is a BC hockey fan that writes about hockey on many different websites including this one.
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#1 Daniel Wagner
April 22 2013, 11:29AM
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"Nobody is pulling for #Lumbus more than me."

I disagree, considering I wrote a post over at Backhand Shelf at the start of the season saying they were a playoff team. It was a dumb prediction, but I've been pulling for them like crazy ever since.

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#2 Matt
April 22 2013, 11:32AM
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So is Phoenix officially the most average team in the NHL, then?

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#3 Kent Wilson
April 22 2013, 11:39AM
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@Matt

Haha, indeed they are. Which is actually a pretty impressive feat given their many challenges.

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#4 antro
April 22 2013, 01:15PM
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@CamCharron

I love this series - any chance of a graph for all the teams over the course of the season? Like the Lumbus one, except with PDO and Fenwick close %. Looks like the Canucks Fenwick Close is bottoming out (for example).

Btw, there's something I've been wondering for a while. I've seen some people using an "adjusted" (maybe it was "score-adjusted") Fenwick. Any thoughts on that metric, and how it's comparable to Fenwick close %?

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#5 leafnerd
April 22 2013, 01:17PM
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I've been watching leaf PDO since February and why does the leafs PDO keep rising even though their Fenwick and regression to mean suggest it should fall?

This is the problem I have with the stats, they are not much more useful then guessing if a team should win or fall. In fact, guessing 50/50 win loss would have been more effective then basing it on stats which were biased to losing.

The first rule of forecasting is if a tool can't outperform 50/50 then it is of no use. That is my take on this.

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#6 John Lofranco
April 22 2013, 01:29PM
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I was trying to think of a way to figure out how much a goalie's svp is a function of systems vs how good the goalie is. If you correlated league average GAA with avg #shots per game, (i.e. get a goals per 28.5 shots or something, vs GA/60) you could figure out expected svp based on GAA, and then look and see if the goalie is over or under performing. Might that be a way of seeing how sustainable a svp is (i.e. if it is because of a system, then it's more sustainable, if it's James Reimer, it's cause he's amazing, or somewhere in the middle)? You could use that to tease out a bit of the luck factor. Because some of these teams have high PDOs because they just have good goalies, right? Not everyone is going to tend back towards 1.000? I think I read this somewhere that there is kind of a "team PDO" that's a better target for regression.

True/false?

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#8 mattyc
April 22 2013, 05:47PM
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@John Lofranco

An article on hockey prospectus by tom awad:

"Much of the apparent sustainability of goaltending skill is due to scorer bias and shot quality. This is partly why two different Boston goaltenders have led the league in save percentage the last two seasons."

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=558

Which means, I guess that Reimer's SV% is skill + 'system' + random variance (the 'bounces'). But that random variance/luck/bounces still account for over half of the observed SV% - even over 3 years.

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#9 Jay
April 22 2013, 10:45PM
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"Scary thought: the New York Islanders are in 6th place and their PDO is just .988. I wrote some words about that team here. They're also fun to watch. #Lumbus-East, maybe, but without the cute Twitter account."

Just imagine them with an above-average goaltender

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#10 Stupendous Man
April 22 2013, 11:46PM
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Cam -- I would really like to see what the Islanders' Fenwick Close has been since the deadline. I noticed they've gone from a 49.7 FenClose% to 52.07 in the space of the last three weeks. Actually, that would be a great column to add to your presumably final regular season PDO/FenClose update next week -- every team's FenClose% since the deadline.

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#11 John Lofranco
April 23 2013, 06:45AM
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mattyc wrote:

An article on hockey prospectus by tom awad:

"Much of the apparent sustainability of goaltending skill is due to scorer bias and shot quality. This is partly why two different Boston goaltenders have led the league in save percentage the last two seasons."

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=558

Which means, I guess that Reimer's SV% is skill + 'system' + random variance (the 'bounces'). But that random variance/luck/bounces still account for over half of the observed SV% - even over 3 years.

Over half, eh? Interesting. That makes sense given the small range of sv%, league-wide. Like 3 shots per 100 or about 1 per game.

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#12 elseldo
April 23 2013, 08:10AM
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" so they can write another sitcom about non-white families in Saskatchewan, I guess."

zuh?

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#13 Lemming
April 23 2013, 09:17PM
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elseldo wrote:

" so they can write another sitcom about non-white families in Saskatchewan, I guess."

zuh?

I think he was referring to CBC "gems" such as Little Mosque on the Prairie.

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#14 AdroitFiasco
April 28 2013, 07:30PM
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It's Columbus, not "Lumbus". Please don't attempt to further a stupid nickname that I first saw here.

Are you from Ilidelphia? Preds fan? Go Shville?

Great story though :) Just don't do things a local might hate, CBJ already embarrassed most of us with "Arch City"...No arches here, sorry....

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