PDO numbers by NHL team - Apr 8

Cam Charron
April 08 2013 01:13PM

PDO doesn't stand for anything, but that doesn't mean we can't learn anything from adding up the overall shooting and save percentages for a team at even strength. A layman's explanation for 'PDO' and why we use it can be found here over at the Backhand Shelf. Basically, if a team is playing with a PDO number way higher than 1.000, they're producing above their expected output. If a team is playing with a PDO number below 1.000, they're producing below their expected output. Over the course of a long season, the number will generally correct itself.

For any daily updates you may be so inclined to find, Hockey Analysis compiles these numbersbehindthenet.ca has a page that offers a team's shooting percentage and a team's save percentage numbers, and we'll use those for weekly rankings here at NHLNumbers. Shooting percentage is the 17th column from the left on BTN's team shots page—the first one to say SPCT. It's cousin, team save percentage, is three columns to the right also saying SPCT. The team shooting percentage needs to be subtracted from 1000 to get the actual number.

I've also included team Fenwick Close % numbers, pulled from behindthenet.ca as well. Treat it as a proxy for the amount of time each team spends with the puck. Any team with a rate over 50% is pretty good and should make the playoffs in an 82-game season unless something goes horribly wrong.  

Here are the team PDO standings through games played Sunday night: 

TEAM Fenwick Close % Team Shot % Team Save % PDO
Anaheim 47.30% 10.60% 0.928 1.034
Toronto 45.19% 11.00% 0.919 1.029
Tampa Bay 45.31% 11.30% 0.911 1.024
Chicago 55.10% 9.50% 0.928 1.023
Pittsburgh 50.54% 9.50% 0.928 1.023
Montreal 53.21% 9.30% 0.926 1.019
Vancouver 53.28% 9.10% 0.925 1.016
Buffalo 44.28% 8.80% 0.923 1.011
Washington 46.51% 8.60% 0.923 1.009
Boston 54.55% 8.00% 0.927 1.007
Phoenix 50.26% 8.50% 0.919 1.004
Nashville 47.09% 8.00% 0.923 1.003
Columbus 45.02% 8.50% 0.918 1.003
Ottawa 49.63% 6.80% 0.934 1.002
Los Angeles 58.43% 8.70% 0.914 1.001
Minnesota 48.24% 8.40% 0.916 1.000
Edmonton 44.47% 7.70% 0.923 1.000
Dallas 49.07% 9.10% 0.908 0.999
NY Rangers 53.88% 6.70% 0.931 0.998
Detroit 51.65% 7.20% 0.925 0.997
Carolina 52.05% 7.80% 0.916 0.994
San Jose 52.56% 6.60% 0.926 0.992
Winnipeg 49.84% 8.00% 0.910 0.990
St. Louis 53.41% 8.70% 0.900 0.987
NY Islanders 50.36% 8.40% 0.895 0.979
Colorado 46.86% 7.10% 0.908 0.979
New Jersey 53.89% 6.80% 0.907 0.975
Philadelphia 48.73% 7.90% 0.896 0.975
Florida 51.28% 6.60% 0.905 0.971
Calgary 48.53% 8.40% 0.881 0.965

Last week's numbers found here.

Thoughts...

  • Not a good week to be a fan of Buffalo or Tampa Bay. Both teams are producing above their potential but both are four and eight points out of the playoff race with a lot of teams to leap up, making a post-season appearance unlikely. Seems like a shame to waste a good year.
     
  • San Jose were between 51.5% and 52.0% in Fenwick Close all season. They gut the bottom half of their roster made up of poor puck-possession players, and have had a damn good week. Turns out Dougie Murray may be the anti-Jeff Carter, but if San Jose keeps up this play, I'm wondering if they might challenge in the Western Conference. Could be a sleeper team deserving to be named along with Los Angeles and Chicago.
     
  • I believe St. Louis should be among those ranks too.
     
  • The idea that the Boston Bruins are doomed because they're 1-4-1 in one-goal games against Montreal and Pittsburgh is quite flawed. This is an elite team that hasn't got the percentage support the Penguins have had this season. Hopefully Patrice Bergeron is back soon. Rather, hopefully Patrice Bergeron is healthy soon, and doesn't play before he's 100%. Bergeron is probably the best two-way centreman in the league, and the elite two-way centreman is the power-hitting shortstop of hockey. Nice to have a guy who can generate offence and be a perennial Selke candidate.
     
  • Anaheim beat Los Angeles last night. Took them to a shootout, though. Ducks gonna be Ducky, and they'll probably hang on to the 2-seed.
     
  • The cure for Philadelphia's .896 team save percentage was Steve Mason, apparently.
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Cam Charron is a BC hockey fan that writes about hockey on many different websites including this one.