The Curious Case of Matt Stajan

Justin Azevedo
August 23 2013 09:21AM

Blackhawks vs Calgary Flames 12/5/10

Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.

I've said for a couple of seasons now that I think Matt Stajan is still a quality player. Even when he was in the midst of his .3 PPG season in 2011-2012, some were still defending him even though scores of Flames fans clamored for a buyout. With him entering perhaps his final season in Calgary, it's time to examine exactly what went wrong.

Let's take a look at the numbers and do some analysis.

Season Adjusted Corsi ESP/60 ESTOI/60 PPTOI/60 PKTOI/60 ZS/ZF Delta Penalty Delta
2012-2013 4.262 2.09 (1st) 14:42 0:15 1:58 +1.8% +0.1/60
2011-2012 3.913 1.30 (3rd) 11:22 0:28 1:00 +3.8% +0.5/60
2010-2011 0.732 1.80 (2nd) 12:19 1:03 0:41 -3% -0.6/60
2009-2010 0.452 1.93 (2nd) 14:27 2:36 1:16 +0.5% +0.3/60

Okay, so that's plenty of data to take in all at once, so let me simplify it a little bit: Stajan has performed like a top-6 forward should in generally every respect for three of the four years he's been in Flames Silks. He's consistently pushed play forward and mostly scored at a top-6 rate at even strength (roughly 1.80 ESP/60 is the rule of thumb).

2009-2010

Stajan came to the Flames in the much-publicized Dion Phaneuf trade. Stajan spent most of his time in Calgary with Jarome Iginla, Alex Tanguay, Jay Bouwmeester and Ian White. In his role, he played against first and second liners in a quasi-PvP situation. Stajan had a low PDO, meaning his luck was a hinderance to his play. He also had a significant amount of power-play time, but that was balanced out by his increase in PK time.

2010-2011

Tanguay, Iginla, and Bouwmeester were again his most consistent line mates. Mark Giordano also joined the fray. He played against 3rd liners and suffered a significant drop in his PP and ES TOI for no real reason as he was scoring at about the same rate as the year before. Stajan had an average PDO on the season. His adjusted Corsi was again above even.

2011-2012

Stajan had a rough year by the boxcars in 2012, but much of that can be attributed to his change in situation. His PK ice time per game increased while his even strength and PP time shrunk again, likely due to assumed shortfalls in his game and unrealistic expectations not being met. While Stajan's point production decreased, he was still scoring at a 3rd line rate while playing with Tom Kostopoulos and Tim Jackman, two noted offensive juggernauts. In fact, Stajan essentially doubled the line's production per 60 minutes while playing with teammates in the 10th percentile of awfulness league-wide.

While I will admit that his overall point production in 2012 was not enough to justify the dollars on his contract for that year, it was a result of several things coming together to bury Stajan and it was through no fault of his own. Besides TJ Brodie and Cory Sarich, his Corsi% increased more than his line mates did when he was apart from 7 of the 9 players he spent more than 100 minutes worth of ice time with. Even though the points weren't there, everything else was.

2012-2013

Situation changes forced Bob Hartley's hand and by the trade deadline Stajan had gone from the 3rd or 2nd line centre in the first 20 games to the first line centre for the last 20 or so games. Part of this was due to injury, part due to trades and part due to random factors. Regardless, Stajan excelled in the role he, scoring at a first-line rate with positive underlying numbers - although he did have an inflated PDO (102.6). The highest on the team, in fact. It's no coincidence the perception of the player improved with a spike in percentages. The scoring rate is likely a little higher than Stajan's true talent level due to that PDO.

So What Happened?

Stajan was a victim of circumstance. Not only was he traded for Dion Phaneuf in an ill-fated blockbuster deal, he was immediately re-upped to (what was considered at the time) a questionable long-term, big money deal.

In 2009-10, the Flames club and their beleaugered manager were underachieving relative to high expectations, so with Stajan being the "centerpiece" of the deal he was expected to help the club make an immediate turn-around, which is why he was plunked on Jarome Iginla's line. Unfortunately, Stajan wasn't good enought to turn Jarome around possession-wise and the aforementioned poor percentages run coupled with the fresh contract and the pain of missing the playoffs soured the fan base. See: wrong foot, got off on.

Brent Sutter wasn't too far behind in that regard. He played Stajan in a top-6 role again the next season, but only as long as Darryl was in power. Once his older bro was deposed, Brent gleefully demoted Staajan down the depth chart and cut his PP ice time. We can't be sure if Brent never really like Stajan or if being forced to deploy him in a certain role by the elder Sutter turned him off the player for good, but either way Brent didn't have much time for poor ol' Matty Franchise. The continuing deflation of the club's fortunes and the ever growing realization that the Dion Phaneuf trade was a terrible one continued to sink his stock in the eyes of the fan base.

Sutter buried Stajan in the bottom-6 for good in his last season as the Flames coach. The former Leaf's offense oriented ice time went south and so did his scoring. As a result, he entered the lock-out off-season as one of the most reviled players on the club, a symbol of the failed Phaneuf trade and Darryl Sutter's descent into utter madness.

To be fair to Brent and the fan base in general, Stajan isn't all that a compelling player. He puts up decent possession and scoring rates in most circumstances, but he's not outstanding in any particular way. He doesn't drive possession like Backlund, increase shooting percentage like Tanguay or snipe like Cammalleri. When he was moved down the depth chart, he didn't crush third and fourth liners from a possession perspective as one might expect from a top-six player. Stajan also isn't overly physical, can play a hesistant game when he's "off" and doesn't take a lot of shots on net (and, as a result, doesn't score a lot of goals). In context of the awful Phaneuf deal and the team's slide down the Western Conference standings, he became a particularly difficult player to like.

Stripped of the burden of expectations and guilt by association, Stajan's a perfectly acceptable middle rotation centerman. He drives play forward nominally well, is a decent passer with good hands, vision and acceptable scoring rates. He's not a guy who is going to turn around a failing club or prop up a scoring unit all by himself.

Two More Points

Matt Stajan's cap hit comparables actually don't look too unreasonable. There's a nice mixture of skill there, and I'd say Stajan is smack dab right in the middle in terms of player quality: 10 guys are not as good as Stajan and 10 guys are as good or better. When you look at the second-line centres in the league, there's only two (non-ELC) deals that have a cap hit more than $250,000 less than Stajan (Shawn Matthias, FLA; Kyle Brodziak, MIN).

Stajan's first assist percentage has also been consistently high, which confirms he's a quality puck distributor.

Conclusion

Stajan has had three seasons where he's been a top-6 forward by any measure and another outlying season where he was unfairly lambasted by both fans and coach alike - which is odd considering the coach is the one that positioned Stajan to fail. He might not be able to make his teammates in the top-6 better, but he can play with them to the degree necessary. He pushes play forward and scores at a good rate while costing about the average amount for his position.

While I never thought Stajan was as bad as his 2011-2012 suggested, I doubt he'll score at a 2.0 ESP/60 rate again this year as his regression to the mean vis-à-vis his PDO is likely to take a little bit of a toll on his scoring situation. However, he will receive more ice time on the PP and at ES, so a significant drop overall in point production is unlikely. If he can score .5PPG (~1.85 P/60) and keep a positive adjusted Corsi rate, that will be a very successful season in my eyes and it will likely have him scoring at a 2nd line rate once again.

His contract might've been signed too soon, but since signing it Stajan has played to the level someone who has a $3.5 million cap hit should. Simply put, he's a decent second line centre (or good third line centre) and he has played like it throughout the duration of his contract.

He'll have his detractors in Calgary for the rest of the time he spends here, but Matt Stajan has been and will likely continue to be a decent player for the club. It will be interesting to see how he fares this year and whether the team decides to keep him or flip him at the deadline for some sort of return.

A9d138d0e612f28cd46f9b7057ed715d
Justin is a 22-year-old Flames fan who also happens to be pursuing a double major at the University of Calgary. He has played hockey at high levels, enjoys wearing shorts and tends to drink far too much Grasshopper. Please don't hate him.
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#1 Arik
August 23 2013, 09:27AM
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This is like 90% of my posts here on FN. love you jazzy V

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#2 SmellOfVictory
August 23 2013, 09:44AM
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I have two main issues with Stajan:

1) He doesn't seem to be able to drive a line to save his life - you put him on the top line with top line players, he's okay/mediocre. You put him on the third line with third line players, he's okay/mediocre. He just seems to adapt to be "okay" at every single level of difficulty he plays, rather than absolutely murdering guys if you give him a more sheltered role. To me that indicates that he's a competent passenger rather than a guy you build any part of your team around. Now, a competent passenger isn't the worst thing in the world, but it does mean you have to surround the guy with better players than he in order for him to succeed.

2) People, to this day, say he's better than Backlund. That alone is enough to make me hate the guy.

Oh, 2.5) He was the central piece in the Phaneuf trade that ended up being a major fleecing of the Flames organization (I know, let it go).

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#3 Cam Charron
August 23 2013, 09:26AM
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As we've begun to hammer home at the Leafs Nation, it's hilarious/sad that Brian Burke and Dave Nonis have not been able to find a replacement for MATT STAJAN after having dealt him away.

By just about any measure, Stajan is better than Tyler Bozak. He'll probably wind up on a cheaper UFA contract as well.

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#4 aloudoun
August 23 2013, 10:02AM
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I have heard from two people that are friends with Stajan that he just doesn't care that much about hockey anymore. He is unmotivated. Guess you take that with a grain of salt but thats what I heard.

One more year... One more year... One more year...

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#5 Kent Wilson
August 23 2013, 09:45AM
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I was never too kind to Stajan, but I kinda started feeling sorry for him eventually. I considered starting a "Matt Stajan's broken heart" twitter parody in fact.

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#6 mslepp
August 23 2013, 10:12AM
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Unfortunately, he'll never outgrow the stigma attached to that awful trade/signing.

I look forward to Feaster getting nothing for him; letting him walk as a UFA to get rid of a Sutter-regime player.

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#7 clyde
August 23 2013, 11:20AM
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aloudoun wrote:

I have heard from two people that are friends with Stajan that he just doesn't care that much about hockey anymore. He is unmotivated. Guess you take that with a grain of salt but thats what I heard.

One more year... One more year... One more year...

He isn't exactly the fittest guy in the world and apparently doesn't work too hard to correct that. Sutter has no patience for that and buried him because of it.

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#8 schevvy
August 23 2013, 10:01AM
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I still remember back when there were the live chats for games here and everyone would always make fun of the Staj (me included). He had a stretch there where it seemed everything he tried to do just wouldn't work, and EVERYBODY thought he would be bought out after this year. But then at the end of the 2011-12 season he finally started to get some bounces to go his way and it continued into this season. Good for him .

But he is not a top line centre and unfortunately that's what people thought they were getting when he came in the infamous Dion trade. If his deal had been about 1M-1.5M less, he would have been far more respected by Flames fans.

I hope he lights it up this year and then the Flames can flip him at the deadline for a pick/prospect.

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#9 Clyde
August 23 2013, 01:53PM
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Kent Wilson wrote:

Is that true? I never saw any real confirmation of that anywhere.

It is. He even admitted on an interview that he could spend more time on that area. I don't know if that has changed as that was a couple of years ago

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#10 jeremywilhelm
August 24 2013, 11:46AM
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Calling Brent Sutter, Butter, should be an instant ban.

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#11 walkinvisible
August 23 2013, 09:30AM
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no doubt jarome's decline had a bearing on matty franchise's first year(s) in calgary. you could see the fanbase warm to him as he improved noticeably over the years, and i feel it had something to do with being distanced from the spiralling "top" line.

no point, really, except to acknowledge that i hated him upon arrival in YYC, and am rather fond of him now.

worst comment ever.

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#12 sejll
August 23 2013, 09:50AM
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@Baalzamon

Good point. Cam got that comment completely wrong. However, I'm not too worried as Bozak will be traded ala Stajan/Phaneuf for some offensive minded and troubled NHL player.

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#13 Kent Wilson
August 23 2013, 11:19AM
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@Greg

Ahem, no, no, not at all. *wink wink*

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#14 Kent Wilson
August 23 2013, 12:28PM
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@clyde

Is that true? I never saw any real confirmation of that anywhere.

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#15 RickT
August 23 2013, 12:39PM
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Stajan for Captain 2013

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#16 RKD
August 23 2013, 01:07PM
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I don't feel sorry for him, he's underachieved as far as I am concerned. When Sutter made the trade in a panic move we still expected Stajan to put up the offensive numbers he had in Toronto. Players come to Calgary and struggle big time here. Whether its expectations or systems guys aren't having the same type of production. Jay-Bo and Jokinen both struggled here offensively and weren't the players we wanted them to be. Stajan can be better, sure he might have been behind the pecking order here a bit but still his shot totals have been way down and has seen a dip in his shooting percentage. Though his role had changed like Jokinen to be a more defensive player, the Flames didn't need veterans converting a defensive mode especially for an offensively challenge club.

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#17 Thprop
August 23 2013, 03:16PM
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Great article...Justin could you please email a copy to Lambert so he has something well written for reference.

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#18 dean the raven
August 23 2013, 09:21PM
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@beloch

What a loser.!! And brown nose too

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#19 clyde
August 24 2013, 10:06AM
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Kent Wilson wrote:

Is that true? I never saw any real confirmation of that anywhere.

http://flamesnation.ca/2011/5/8/matt-stajan-a-closer-look

I had read it here as it turns out.

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#20 Baalzamon
August 24 2013, 12:59PM
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jeremywilhelm wrote:

Calling Brent Sutter, Butter, should be an instant ban.

Seconded.

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#21 Baalzamon
August 23 2013, 09:45AM
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@Cam Charron

That's not true, you have Mikhail Grabovski, and he's...

oh, right.

Well, the Flames are still looking for a replacement for Daymond Langkow, who "wasn't good enough" while he was here.

Will the franchise parallels never end?

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#22 Baalzamon
August 23 2013, 09:46AM
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@Kent Wilson

you are the soul of human decency.

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#23 CDB
August 23 2013, 10:10AM
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Terrific article. A sane view on a player that has been judged way too harshly during his tenure. I'm all for resigning him. Decent 2nd/3rd line center to have during a rebuild.

I agree he's not a top 2 line center on a playoff team, but with the Flames current situation he's perfect. While I have been defending him pretty much since his arrival, it's good to see the numbers back it up. Interesting comparables on contract, must admit that despite the fact I have defended him, I thought he was considerably more overpaid than he really is.

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#24 redricardo
August 23 2013, 10:27AM
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This article actually makes some good points.

Is there any way to forward this to the 29 other GM's? Say... Around trade deadline time?

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#25 Greg
August 23 2013, 10:52AM
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@redricardo

I assumed that was the whole point of the article... Try and start re-pumping his trade value now before the deadline :)

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#26 dean the raven
August 23 2013, 12:55PM
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schevvy wrote:

I still remember back when there were the live chats for games here and everyone would always make fun of the Staj (me included). He had a stretch there where it seemed everything he tried to do just wouldn't work, and EVERYBODY thought he would be bought out after this year. But then at the end of the 2011-12 season he finally started to get some bounces to go his way and it continued into this season. Good for him .

But he is not a top line centre and unfortunately that's what people thought they were getting when he came in the infamous Dion trade. If his deal had been about 1M-1.5M less, he would have been far more respected by Flames fans.

I hope he lights it up this year and then the Flames can flip him at the deadline for a pick/prospect.

I bet he does, too.

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#27 beloch
August 23 2013, 02:15PM
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@beloch

Aside: Yes, I do covet Toronto's first round pick this season.

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#28 redricardo
August 23 2013, 09:17PM
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removed - ed.

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#29 beloch
August 24 2013, 01:36PM
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dean the raven wrote:

What a loser.!! And brown nose too

You can Disagree without being rude.

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#30 Kevin R
August 23 2013, 01:11PM
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Well we don't need to worry about signing Grabovski. :(

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#31 beloch
August 23 2013, 02:12PM
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A week or so ago theleafsnation did a comparison between Stajan and Bozak.

http://theleafsnation.com/2013/8/13/ragin-for-stajan-a-bozak-comparison

Here's the comment I posted, since it's equally valid here.

__________________
Flames fan here.

Stajan is remarkable both for his mediocrity and consistency. His shots/minute rate has remained pretty much the same since he was in Toronto. Butter (Brent Sutter) absolutely despised him though, and his average TOI was slashed in half as a Flame. To make matters worse, his PDO cratered simultaneously and his point production showed the effects of both for two seasons after he came to Calgary. By the end of Butter's reign he seemed to be struggling with a whipping-boy complex (he even called himself a whipping-boy in an interview). He was playing on the fourth or sometimes third line and, while not getting clobbered, was completely failing to take advantage of the goons and mooks he was facing.

Last season, under Hartley, his TOI was restored, he was shuffled up to the top two lines, and his PDO finally regressed towards something that can be described at "not utterly cursed". He was deployed against top competition and, as usual, had mediocre possesion. Still, mediocre possession against top competition is a triumphant comeback after his previous season!

Stajan was definitely misused by Butter and the counting stats from his Butter years do not reflect the kind of player he is. You're not going to get accurate results if you use data from his first two full seasons as a Flame to compare him with Bozak.

This season the Flames will probably try to fluff up Stajan's counting stats a little so they can get a good return for him. It's a contract year for Stajan and it doesn't make a lot of sense for him to re-sign with Calgary, so he's definitely going to be on the auction block. Want him for a firstie? ;) You guys are totally making the playoffs this year, so it's a fair trade!

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#32 The Last Big Bear
August 23 2013, 08:52PM
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Should start a Matt Stajan meme, ala Chuck Norris, but as the epitome of mediocrity.

Matt Stajan's tears are mildly rehydrating.

Superman has a Matt Stajan jersey. He won it in a raffle, but doesn't really wear it, because he's not actually much of a hockey fan.

In a fight between Matt Stajan and a grizzly bear, the grizzly bear would win. But Matt Stajan would probably do a better job defending himself than most people.

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#33 Tenbrucelees
August 24 2013, 02:47AM
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The Last Big Bear wrote:

Should start a Matt Stajan meme, ala Chuck Norris, but as the epitome of mediocrity.

Matt Stajan's tears are mildly rehydrating.

Superman has a Matt Stajan jersey. He won it in a raffle, but doesn't really wear it, because he's not actually much of a hockey fan.

In a fight between Matt Stajan and a grizzly bear, the grizzly bear would win. But Matt Stajan would probably do a better job defending himself than most people.

Haha excellent

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#34 ChinookArch
August 24 2013, 08:27AM
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beloch wrote:

Aside: Yes, I do covet Toronto's first round pick this season.

Me too, it's a top 12 pick - write it down "wandering in the desert".

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#35 Western DP
August 24 2013, 01:37PM
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The Leafs will be an Alsoran without a top flight center. We need one badly.

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#36 Western DP
August 23 2013, 09:19PM
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removed - ed.

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