The NHLE Calculator

Christian Roatis
January 27 2016 02:00PM

Convenience is everything nowadays.  

We want everything to be as centralized as possible – with apps, news, etc all in one place – and everything done for us to the largest possible extent. To that end, I’ve taken the initiative to simplify and centralize the very common calculation of a hockey player’s NHLE, by creating a calculator for it. To my knowledge, it’s the first of its kind that is publicly available (this determined by one Google search and quick scan of the results), but I could be wrong.

For those who are unaware of what NHLE is, you can read up on the topic from the creator himself, Gabriel Desjardins.

NHLE has been evolved and groomed by another hockey analytics pioneer, Rob Vollman, since Desjardins’ introduction of it and I’ve used Vollman’s latest NHLE equivalencies in the design of the calculator. Unfortunately, the calculations are hard coded into the program so if/when these equivalencies change, I will have to manually update it.

You can download the NHLE Calculator from my Dropbox page here, and store it wherever your heart desires for future use.

It has 37 leagues integrated and turns the previously tedious process into a three step, tic-tac-toe play.

No more scouring the Internet for equivalencies and then whipping out an actual calculator for manual calculations. 

It has gone through a few rounds of testing but there will still probably be bugs here and there. If you find any more, you can email me at croatis@futureconsiderations.ca and I'll get them straightened out. If there's an appetite for it, there's the potential to imbed it on a website and have it be an online tool. 

Once more, here's the link to download the NHLE Calculator.

Hope you all enjoy it. 

20eba9f84d9905f9b859288e29c3e0a8
Christian Roatis writes about the Calgary Flames at FlamesNation and covers the NHL Entry Draft for FutureConsiderations. Follow him on Twitter @CRoatis!
Avatar
#1 Baalzamon
January 27 2016, 02:09PM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Props
20
props

A web app would make production rollouts much simpler.

Just saying.

Avatar
#3 The Last Big Bear
January 27 2016, 02:48PM
Trash it!
5
trashes
Props
18
props

I just got a stats boner.

Avatar
#4 Chris Abraham
January 27 2016, 02:57PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Props
3
props

I made a simple one that has most leagues that Vollman tweets out

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DKGZvKmc8kY0HKyhQshygvDJ5xvXfQZyjKIAjqyIKTk/edit#gid=2017733463

Avatar
#5 RickT
January 27 2016, 03:01PM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Props
3
props

Awesome work Christian! Multumesc.

Avatar
#6 mattyc
January 27 2016, 03:22PM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Props
8
props
Christian Roatis wrote:

Yep, that is the next step. I have a web ready version, it's just a matter of implementing it somewhere. Soon, my friend. Soon.

Hey Christian,

I have quite a bit of experience using R and R Shiny, so if you go that route, I'd be happy to give you a hand -- only if you'd like it though :)

Avatar
#7 beloch
January 27 2016, 04:11PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Props
5
props

Here are the NHLE conversion factors the calculator uses:

  • QMJHL 0.26
  • AHL 0.47
  • WHL 0.27
  • WCHA 0.44
  • NCHC 0.41
  • NLA 0.4
  • ECAC 0.23
  • Big-10 0.35
  • CCHA 0.32
  • H-East 0.37
  • NHL 1.0
  • MHL 0.18
  • OHL 0.32
  • ECHL 0.22
  • SHL 0.6
  • SMLIIGA 0.29
  • KHL 0.8
  • VHL 0.38
  • SEL 0.6
  • USHL 0.27
  • Allsvenskan 0.8
  • SuperElit 0.2
  • BCHL 0.13
  • DEL 0.52
  • CZECH 0.52
  • JrLiiga 0.36
  • CZECH2 0.29
  • AJHL 0.15
  • CCHL 0.15
  • High School 0.08
  • 2.Gbun 0.16
  • J18 Allsvenskan 0.16
  • J18 Elit 0.16
  • u20 0.55
  • Austria 0.08
  • CHL 0.3
  • U19 0.3

For anyone not familiar with NHLE, the formula is dead simple:

NHLE = Points / Number of Games * NHLE Conversion Factor for League (from above list) * 82

Avatar
#10 wot96
January 27 2016, 04:29PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
1
props

Megapain floating around 41 this year with those 8 games missed.

Fat Ras is over 26. Not bad for a defenceman.

Avatar
#11 Baalzamon
January 27 2016, 04:33PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
4
props

@beloch

Allsvenskan 0.8

Okay... that has to be wrong, especially since the SHL is 0.6

Also... is the top Swiss league really that much better than Liiga?

Avatar
#12 Gary Empey
January 27 2016, 05:50PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
4
props

I have downloaded it and will unpack it after the game.

This type of tool has the potential to be extremely useful.

Like all analytical programs, a lot of hard work, on many different levels, goes into the creation and constant fine tuning to make it relevant.

I thank you for your generosity in posting it here for us.

I expect to make immediate use of it to show Justin where he went wrong.

Avatar
#13 Fredizzle
January 27 2016, 06:31PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
0
props

@Baalzamon

Which is the swiss league

Avatar
#14 Observer
January 27 2016, 06:49PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
0
props

@Christian Roatis - Are you able to provide a brief explanation on how this tool is helpful to the average, knowledge challenged, hockey fan?

Avatar
#15 The Last Big Bear
January 27 2016, 07:04PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Props
8
props
Observer wrote:

@Christian Roatis - Are you able to provide a brief explanation on how this tool is helpful to the average, knowledge challenged, hockey fan?

You put in the point production of a kid who isn't in the NHL yet.

And it'll tell you how many points that kid should get if he jumped straight to the NHL the following year.

Avatar
#16 Observer
January 27 2016, 08:50PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
1
props
The Last Big Bear wrote:

You put in the point production of a kid who isn't in the NHL yet.

And it'll tell you how many points that kid should get if he jumped straight to the NHL the following year.

Thank You

Avatar
#17 Bob-O
January 27 2016, 09:44PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
0
props

@beloch

The link says the file cannot be viewed.

Avatar
#18 Gary Empey
January 27 2016, 10:02PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
0
props

@Bob-O

Looks like you have to download it and view it on your own computer or transfer it to the cloud storage service ( Dropbox )and view it from there.

If you don't have a Dropbox account it is free to open one.

Avatar
#19 TW
January 27 2016, 10:50PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
0
props
Baalzamon wrote:
Allsvenskan 0.8

Okay... that has to be wrong, especially since the SHL is 0.6

Also... is the top Swiss league really that much better than Liiga?

SMLIIGA factor is definately wrong, as is Allsvenskan.

Avatar
#21 Baalzamon
January 27 2016, 11:45PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
0
props
Fredizzle wrote:

Which is the swiss league

NLA

Avatar
#22 Baalzamon
January 27 2016, 11:46PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
0
props
Christian Roatis wrote:

It is odd, but those are Vollman's newest numbers. The Allsvenskan one is especially odd, but that is correct based on the latest conversions.

Then someone must have mathed wrong on a lot of those. Allsvenskan higher than SHL? impossible. JrSMLIIGA higher than SMLIIGA? Ridiculous.

Avatar
#23 Bob-O
January 28 2016, 12:02AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
0
props

@Gary Empey

Yeah. I started a Dropbox account. I tried it on my phone. Maybe I'll have to use my PC instead. Thanks for the reply.

Avatar
#24 magesticRAGE
January 28 2016, 12:28AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
0
props

@Fredizzle

NLA

Apparently Fabrice Herzog could pot 27 NHL points. He's having a good year with ZSC.

Avatar
#25 magesticRAGE
January 28 2016, 12:29AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
0
props

I'd there a NHLE list for goalies?

Avatar
#26 tburkulowsys
January 28 2016, 09:21AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
1
props

I don't think the NHLE necessarily measures league difficulty, it only measures what prospects are expected to score in the NHL the following year. This is influenced by the prospect's age, their projected role and possibly a difference in the league's roster size in the case of the ECHL. Therefore the score of 0.8 for Allsvenskan and 0.6 for the SHL could possibly be accurate.

It might mean that the average age for the player from Allsvenskan is between 18-19 and perhaps the average SHL rookie in the NHL/AHL is in their early 20s. If the figure has little predictive power it might be an artifact from a small sample size.

NHLE overestimates the difficulty of the junior leagues. The NHLE for the AHL for its few 18-19 year olds is around 0.65 and not 0.47. So it might be better to use the 0.65 when comparing Oliver Kylington to Rasmus Andersson for example.

Avatar
#27 Kent Wilson
January 28 2016, 09:43AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
1
props
Christian Roatis wrote:

It is odd, but those are Vollman's newest numbers. The Allsvenskan one is especially odd, but that is correct based on the latest conversions.

Yeah I would follow up with Rob on that Christian. There's no way the Allsvenskan is anywhere close to that high. When I calculated it a few years ago, it was 0.33.

Avatar
#28 RickT
January 28 2016, 09:44AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
1
props
Christian Roatis wrote:

Wow, that was unexpected and impressive!

My wife is Moldovan. :)

I'm trying to learn words and phrases here and there; still pretty terrible, but getting better.

Avatar
#30 Chad Comer
January 29 2016, 07:34PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
1
props

Christian, wonderful work. It works great! I was wondering if you could implement Rob Vollman's age based percentages for the AHL.

Avatar
#31 Robert Vollman
February 04 2016, 09:18PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
3
props

Christian, I believe I know what caused the confusion with some of those factors.

As you mentioned, your factors are based on the spreadsheet I provided, which includes all the data for any player who went to the NHL from virtually any league whatsoever, right?

And, it also includes the formula for calculating translation factors for yourself. Did you apply that formula to every league in the spreadsheet?

If so, the problem is that there's not enough data for the vast majority of those leagues - that's why I don't publish them, and why they're not included in that first page. I bet that David Pastrnak alone caused the odd result with the Allsvenskan.

If you absolutely must have a translation factor for a league that rarely sends players directly to the NHL, consider using the Wilson Method of calculating it through an intermediary league, like the AHL or the SHL.

I also recommend flipping through the chapter on translation factors in the first Hockey Abstract (the blue book). It has a far more detail and background on how to use and calculate translation factors than I can include here.

Comments are closed for this article.