What Does pGPS Say About the Harrington for Rychel Trade?

Shawn Reis
July 08 2016 08:55AM

It's been a couple of weeks now since the Leafs made the draft day trade that sent prospect Scott Harrington and a conditional fifth-rounder to the Columbus Blue Jackets in exchange for Kerby Rychel.

In retrospect, that's probably the Leafs' most universally well-liked move of the off-season.

A first-rounder of the 2013 draft, Rychel plays a hard-nosed, well-rounded game. He was a two-time 40 goal-scorer in the OHL, so he has some legitimate skill, too.

Harrington was a second-rounder in the 2011 draft and came over to the Leafs as part of the Phil Kessel trade. He's a stay-at-home defenseman that spent half of his season with the Leafs and half of it with the Marlies before being shut down for the year with injury in February.

Generally speaking, it's not surprising that Leafs fans favor a deal that saw the team move out a defenseman considered to not much offense to give in exchange for someone that people think could total as many as 30-40 points in the NHL in a given season some day.

Projection tools are fun, so I thought I'd check to see if people's optimism aligns with what the very cool pGPS* has to say. Here were the results:

Player
pGPS n
pGPS s
pGPS %
pGPS P/G
pGPS R
Kerby Rychel
412
179
43.45
0.44278
0.19237
Scott Harrington
882
161
18.25
0.18996
0.03467

All indications are that pGPS aligns with how people feel about the trade in general - Rychel is considered to have both a higher upside and a better likelihood of becoming an NHL regular. In fact, Harrington doesn't even come that close to Rychel, so pGPS really adds to the idea that getting Rychel for Harrington was a stout move by the Leafs. I guess we'll see for certain one way or the other how things pan out in the coming months and years.

*You can read about pGPS here.

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Shawn's a writer for The Leafs Nation and a Web Content Manager for NHL Numbers. Follow him on Twitter @ShawnReis
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#1 Jroc
July 08 2016, 09:30AM
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This article socks, I read this website everyday and have no clue what those stats are. If you want to introduce a new fancy Stat for the love of God explain it, don't just slap a link at the bottom, hack move.... ps love the trade

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#2 mac
July 08 2016, 11:55AM
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Can you add a simple legend for what the various numbers mean, so we don't need to go to some other site? "pGPS n" ??

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#3 Jeff Veillette
July 08 2016, 12:12PM
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Jroc wrote:

This article socks, I read this website everyday and have no clue what those stats are. If you want to introduce a new fancy Stat for the love of God explain it, don't just slap a link at the bottom, hack move.... ps love the trade

We've used pGPS a few times in the past, so we're not really introducing it at this point. Including an intro, especially for something with the complexity of the pGPS model, into every post that references it would be excessive.

The included NHLNumbers link, which remains within our network, covers all the bases to get you up to base on the stat!

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#4 Kevin
July 08 2016, 12:23PM
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Is it fair to compare pGPS between forwards and defencemen? Is there a way to normalize the stat to eliminate position bias?

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#5 don cannon
July 08 2016, 02:27PM
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No Question about it: Leaping Lou should be jailed for theft ... or assault on an unsuspecting Finn. Forget the gobble, gobble and some gook, Reichel is a winner. The other guy, well,maybe.

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#6 mac
July 08 2016, 02:45PM
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Jeff Veillette wrote:

We've used pGPS a few times in the past, so we're not really introducing it at this point. Including an intro, especially for something with the complexity of the pGPS model, into every post that references it would be excessive.

The included NHLNumbers link, which remains within our network, covers all the bases to get you up to base on the stat!

I read the site a lot, but it's still confusing...

I know "pGPS %" and "pGPS P/G"

It'd be helpful to copy 5 lines to the bottom of the article:

pGPS n: The number of matches between the subject and the player-seasons (one season by a single player, i.e, John Tavares 2008 OHL) in the historical sample.

pGPS s: The number of statistical matches that became NHL regulars. This is determined by playing 200 NHL games.

pGPS %: The bread and butter. Simply s divided by n, this is the percentage of statistical matches that successfully became NHL players.

pGPS P/GP: The NHL points per game of successful matches.

pGPS R: A bit of a hybrid number, this pGPS Rating combines the percentage and points per game to produce a number that includes both likelihood of success and potential upside.

or simplified

pGPS n: Number of players in pGPS database similar to prospect.

pGPS s: Number of players similar to prospect who have played 200+ NHL games.

pGPS %: The percentage of similar players who have played 200+ NHL games.

pGPS P/GP: The average NHL points per game of the matches who played 200+ NHL games.

pGPS R: Combination of % and P/GP. "Expected value" of the player.

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#7 jay
July 08 2016, 03:53PM
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i have no idea what this means. a simple explanation would be great. we can't always remember or look back on articles that explained it.

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#8 wallcrawler
July 08 2016, 05:19PM
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It's just another useless stat the Advanced Analytics crowd like to throw out to befuddle you instead of using good old hockey thinking.

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#9 STAN
July 08 2016, 07:33PM
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However, consider this.

Rychel has a minus 3DeFT and a plus TR5gH.

So it's even by my calculus.

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#10 Shhh
July 08 2016, 07:40PM
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On paper this is a good trade but fans here should know that rychel isn't a good human being. He was captain of the spitfires while his dad was the GM and that sort of self entitled mentality has been there his whole life. Why do you think he requested a trade out of Columbus? People can say they misused him or didn't give him a chance..whatever it may be but fact is he didn't earn it and he lost it because he is accustomed to being handed everything. This trade happened because Babcock sees him as a project with upside. Let's all hope he can teach him a few things about being a man that his father Warren never could..only then will we have won the trade.

You say you don't care about his personality as long as he can play? Ask Taylor Hall about that one.

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