Fire, Brimstone and Milan Lucic

Jonathan Willis
February 15 2017 10:30AM

27-Lucic-2

The lack of secondary scoring from the Edmonton Oilers has been a story all season, one with many authors. Old standbys Jordan Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins have earned scorn. Benoit Pouliot appears to be utterly lost. Big-name free agent acquisition Milan Lucic has been a disappointment.

Of the four of them, there isn’t any question as to which player’s poor season should be the most terrifying for the Oilers. It’s that of Lucic, who seems to be imploding at 5-on-5 just as he enters the first year of a buyout-proof forever contract.

This hasn’t gotten nearly as much coverage as it deserves, and for obvious reasons. Lucic has 31 points in 57 games, which is a perfectly reasonable number mostly in-line with his career norms. As long as that holds up, the criticism will be muted, regardless of how lethargic he looks at 5-on-5.

It isn’t news that Lucic has been essentially a power play specialist all season, or that this is out of character for him. His numbers this year are way out of whack with his career averages:

Lucic production

The blue line shows power play scoring. Most forwards fall between 2.0 and 6.0 points/hour, and as a general rule a guy scoring 4.0 points/hour is doing a good job. Lucic has never been all that good on the power play, but this year he’s having a monster season, easily the best of his career.

How good is it? In five of nine seasons prior to this one, Lucic’s scoring rate was less than half what he’s managed this year.

The orange line shorts even-strength scoring. Most forwards fall between 1.0 and 2.5 points/hour, and as a general rule a guy who can crack 2.0 points/hour is a force to be reckoned with. Lucic has long been an excellent 5-on-5 guy, topping 2.0 points/hour in five of the last six seasons. This year he’s having an awful season, easily the worst of his career.

How bad is it? In five of six seasons prior to this one, Lucic’s scoring rate was more than double what he’s managed this year.

In a nutshell: Lucic is scoring twice as much as he normally does on the power play, and half as much at even-strength. That’s exactly what happened to Dustin Brown at the same age, incidentally: His 5-on-5 scoring collapsed and his power play scoring spiked. Since then, his power play scoring has returned to previous levels while his even-strength numbers have stayed bad, turning his contract with L.A. into one of the worst in the NHL.

Still, that’s a sample of one, and should be viewed with some skepticism. Far more troubling is the way that Connor McDavid has obscured the total collapse of Lucic’s game.

I came across this tweet last night, during the intermission in the Edmonton/Arizona game. At first I shrugged; I’d seen Lucic’s lousy point totals with and without McDavid and while they were terrible I’d known that for a while. It’s been more than two months since Lucic has picked up a 5-on-5 goal and he’s mostly played on other lines, so of course the figures would be bad.

What I hadn’t realized was how badly his shot rates have deteriorated away from the Oilers’ franchise centre. It’s hard to over-stress how bad 3.3 shots/hour is.

Most people don’t spend a lot of time on shots/hour, so some context is helpful. Of the 438 forwards to get at least 200 minutes in the NHL last year, these are the five worst by shots per hour:

  • Brandon Prust: 2.45
  • Eric Nystrom: 2.78
  • Jarret Stoll: 3.21
  • Scott Gomez: 3.38
  • Paul Byron: 3.40

Lucic’s non-McDavid total is worse than 435 of the 438 forwards to spend any real time in the NHL last year. The four worst guys on that list are all out of the league now, though on a happier note Byron is having a really nice season in Montreal.

Take away McDavid, and Lucic is one of the worst shot generators in the NHL, something which hasn’t been true in the past and which speaks to not just reluctance to shoot but an inability to get into dangerous areas with the puck on his stick.

Even when Lucic does shoot, it’s from far away. Among Oilers forwards, Lucic’s average shot distance is from further out than any regular other than Pouliot, who a) has been a trainwreck this season and b) hasn’t had the luxury of having Connor McDavid boost his shot totals. Lucic’s shots are coming from 10 feet further out than McDavid’s and from three feet further out than they were a year ago in L.A.

67-Pouliot-4

The Pouliot comparison is a helpful one to go back to, just because of how bad Pouliot has been this year. He has two seasons left at an average value of $4.0 million and at this point it’s not crazy to talk about a buyout. He’s been utterly ineffective offensively.

And yet, even separated from Connor McDavid, Pouliot’s lousy 0.98 points/hour and 4.2 shots/hour are fair-sized improvements on Lucic’s numbers.

Playing with McDavid a lot at 5-on-5 and posting career numbers with McDavid on the power play have concealed the extent to which Lucic’s game has crumbled from previously formidable heights this season. They won’t do it forever, and if Lucic can’t find a road back to his previous levels the next six years of his buyout-proof contract are going to be exceedingly difficult. 

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Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer. He currently works for Oilers Nation, Sportsnet and Bleacher Report. He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including the Edmonton Journal, Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.
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#1 KenBone18
February 15 2017, 01:57PM
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Shoulda drafted Tkachuk.

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#3 Oiler Al
February 15 2017, 02:24PM
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Bills Bills wrote:

I don't pay much attention to who writes the articles intil after I've read it. This one however I got to the first part and couldnt go any further. "Lucic has 31 pounts in 55 games which is on his career average. If this continues the critics will be muted". Then the article criticises the contract and where the points are coming from? I realized this was a JW article and stopped reading.

From my point of view, I don't care where the points are coming from. He's getting points. In fact he's exactly at the point totals I would expect. Maybe even a little higher. He needs 9 pounts in 25 games to hit 40. He will likely get 45 points which is a good season if your expectations are realistic for him. But he was never signed to score 60 or 70 points. He was brought in to be a leader. To add size to the lineup and to have an impact in games when they count. We could debate the last point but the games are just starting to matter. When they will really matter and where Lucic has had the biggest impact is in the playoffs. So maybe the reason it hasn't gotten the attention is because there is nothing to discuss. If this is an off year I can't wait till next year.

He got 53% of his points on the power play, by hanging around the net after others work to get the puck there.[another Penner].Cant take or make a pass often, and skates like a slug. His tough game has been limited and his leadership isnt showing up, like a lot of the Oiler games.

Dont get me started on his contract [ good for him, bad for Oilers]

This was a terrible, terrible signing by Chiarelli. Lombardi out smarted Pete on this one.

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#4 Oiler Al
February 15 2017, 02:24PM
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Bills Bills wrote:

I don't pay much attention to who writes the articles intil after I've read it. This one however I got to the first part and couldnt go any further. "Lucic has 31 pounts in 55 games which is on his career average. If this continues the critics will be muted". Then the article criticises the contract and where the points are coming from? I realized this was a JW article and stopped reading.

From my point of view, I don't care where the points are coming from. He's getting points. In fact he's exactly at the point totals I would expect. Maybe even a little higher. He needs 9 pounts in 25 games to hit 40. He will likely get 45 points which is a good season if your expectations are realistic for him. But he was never signed to score 60 or 70 points. He was brought in to be a leader. To add size to the lineup and to have an impact in games when they count. We could debate the last point but the games are just starting to matter. When they will really matter and where Lucic has had the biggest impact is in the playoffs. So maybe the reason it hasn't gotten the attention is because there is nothing to discuss. If this is an off year I can't wait till next year.

He got 53% of his points on the power play, by hanging around the net after others work to get the puck there.[another Penner].Cant take or make a pass often, and skates like a slug. His tough game has been limited and his leadership isnt showing up, like a lot of the Oiler games.

Dont get me started on his contract [ good for him, bad for Oilers]

This was a terrible, terrible signing by Chiarelli. Lombardi out smarted Pete on this one.

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#5 Oiler Al
February 15 2017, 02:24PM
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Bills Bills wrote:

I don't pay much attention to who writes the articles intil after I've read it. This one however I got to the first part and couldnt go any further. "Lucic has 31 pounts in 55 games which is on his career average. If this continues the critics will be muted". Then the article criticises the contract and where the points are coming from? I realized this was a JW article and stopped reading.

From my point of view, I don't care where the points are coming from. He's getting points. In fact he's exactly at the point totals I would expect. Maybe even a little higher. He needs 9 pounts in 25 games to hit 40. He will likely get 45 points which is a good season if your expectations are realistic for him. But he was never signed to score 60 or 70 points. He was brought in to be a leader. To add size to the lineup and to have an impact in games when they count. We could debate the last point but the games are just starting to matter. When they will really matter and where Lucic has had the biggest impact is in the playoffs. So maybe the reason it hasn't gotten the attention is because there is nothing to discuss. If this is an off year I can't wait till next year.

He got 53% of his points on the power play, by hanging around the net after others work to get the puck there.[another Penner].Cant take or make a pass often, and skates like a slug. His tough game has been limited and his leadership isnt showing up, like a lot of the Oiler games.

Dont get me started on his contract [ good for him, bad for Oilers]

This was a terrible, terrible signing by Chiarelli. Lombardi out smarted Pete on this one.

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#6 Towersofdub
February 15 2017, 01:27PM
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Morgo_82 wrote:

Now I wanna know what it was.

his dad's suicide.

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#7 Towersofdub
February 15 2017, 02:15PM
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McDavid's Comet wrote:

Dude, just give it up! I'm a cancer survivor and don't appreciate ignoramuses such as your self piping-off about experiences that you clearly have absolutely no appreciation for. So do me the favour and drop it, I'm tired of reading about your insensitivity on the subject. Own it and leave it alone.

I understand the disease enough. One parent had it and survived it thus far, a grand parent had it and died from it. I'm not being insensitive by saying it can be treated in many cases. It's a disease, i get it. In many cases, including yours apparently, it's treatable. You're alive, right?

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#8 Oil9744
February 15 2017, 11:08AM
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Wow talk about over analyzing, You answered your own question already about Lucic, Chiarelli never got Lucic to make fancy plays and put up lots of points even though he still is putting up decent points this season, could he do better offensively? Sure he can, but so could almost everyone on the Oilers but 3 guys, Lucic is a presence on the ice, A leader in the locker room, and one of the top hitters on the team, wait till you see him in the playoffs before as well before you make all these assumptions on him already, and your already comparing him to Pouliot!????? Wow....that's a terrible comparison

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#9 Spydyr
February 15 2017, 12:20PM
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Shameless Plugger wrote:

WTF does it have to do with this article? Hockey/oiler related notwithstanding. Man your dumb sometimes.

It is an Oiler blog it was about an Oiler. Get over yourself.

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#10 Bills Bills
February 15 2017, 01:39PM
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I don't pay much attention to who writes the articles intil after I've read it. This one however I got to the first part and couldnt go any further. "Lucic has 31 pounts in 55 games which is on his career average. If this continues the critics will be muted". Then the article criticises the contract and where the points are coming from? I realized this was a JW article and stopped reading.

From my point of view, I don't care where the points are coming from. He's getting points. In fact he's exactly at the point totals I would expect. Maybe even a little higher. He needs 9 pounts in 25 games to hit 40. He will likely get 45 points which is a good season if your expectations are realistic for him. But he was never signed to score 60 or 70 points. He was brought in to be a leader. To add size to the lineup and to have an impact in games when they count. We could debate the last point but the games are just starting to matter. When they will really matter and where Lucic has had the biggest impact is in the playoffs. So maybe the reason it hasn't gotten the attention is because there is nothing to discuss. If this is an off year I can't wait till next year.

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#11 Space Pants
February 15 2017, 02:29PM
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KenBone18 wrote:

Shoulda drafted Tkachuk.

And you should have been born a woman.

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#12 Towersofdub
February 15 2017, 01:35PM
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Spydyr wrote:

Apples and oranges what I posted was a legitimate news story breaking all over the MSM. What he posted was a personally and IMO faulty opinion.

it's 2017. People survive many forms of cancer. It's treatable. I don't understand why this has upset so many people. Brandon Davidson is healthy enough to play NHL hockey.

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#13 the dope $teez
February 15 2017, 10:47AM
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Well these stats echo the eye-test. The man is a skating turnover machine, no wonder he can't crack a shot off, as soon as the puck is on his stick it's into a lost battle or on to an opposing player.

Obviously nobody could have imagined how brutal his season would be, so I don't lay this one on management. The thought process being that if he can be that x-factor for 3 or 4 more years that allows us to go deep in the playoffs, it's worth the long term gamble on a 6-year deal.

If this is the best we are going to see of Lucic, minus small flashes of brilliance (nice pass to Drai last night on the PP goal), this is going to be one of the worst, if not the worst, contract in the NHL. What a giant disappointment. One can only hope he can return to at least 75% of his old self and actually help this team win - god knows we need it right now and into the first round...

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#14 Towersofdub
February 15 2017, 02:25PM
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McDavid's Comet wrote:

That's not what you said, just give it up already!

i said being treated for cancer has less to do with courage, and character than it has to do with medicine. Just like any other disease. I had a life threatening disease, but medicine treated it. sure it was a boring old pulmonary embolism, which isn't nearly as big an industry as cancer, but when you're dead, you're dead.

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#15 Action Jackson
February 15 2017, 11:08AM
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I know it is time to pile on Lucic and Pouliot, and that there is good reason to, but I am not on board. Lucic brings the boom and Pouliot's skating is so good that his scoring has to improve. I am waiting for the puck luck for both to even out, but maybe adjusting expectations down a bit.

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#16 Spydyr
February 15 2017, 12:28PM
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Shameless Plugger wrote:

It has absolutely ZERO to do with the current Oilers. Not to mention he doesn't even play in the league anymore. Self serving much?

Guess you don't want to keep current on any other former Oilers either? Head in the sand much?

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#17 Spydyr
February 15 2017, 12:44PM
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Shameless Plugger wrote:

This is a HOCKEY blog. Take that crap elswhere.

Get off your high horse.

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#18 Total Points
February 15 2017, 12:54PM
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Spydyr wrote:

It was the subject not the content.

Spydyr - you are a classless idiot.

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#19 Towersofdub
February 15 2017, 01:31PM
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McDavid's Comet wrote:

That's for sure

my comments about cancer weren't ignorant. in many cases cancer is a treatable illness. Ask Brandon Davidson or Phil Kessel. They seem like they're doing alright. so is my mom.

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#20 McRaj
February 15 2017, 10:51AM
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Remember when Sekera came in last year. Everyone was worried and complaining about his contract. Funny how a year changes everything.

Give Lucic until next season, and at least wait to see what he does in the playoffs before going completely side ways on him.

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#21 Spydyr
February 15 2017, 10:58AM
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Mod Note: We're leaving that one alone here, please.

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#22 Spydyr
February 15 2017, 12:21PM
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McDavid's Comet wrote:

Whoa! Spydyr you got moderated on ON, that's pretty hard to do here. Whatever you said must have been pretty bad. Take it easy man, it's just hockey.

It was the subject not the content.

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#23 Spydyr
February 15 2017, 01:04PM
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Total Points wrote:

Spydyr - you are a classless idiot.

Insults are the arguments employed by those who are in the wrong.

Jean-Jacques Rousseau

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#24 Spydyr
February 15 2017, 10:41AM
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When some of us mentioned when they signed him the last few years of his contract were going to be ugly I don't think many felt the first few years were going to be ugly also. I hope he goes the Maroon route and drops twenty -thirty pounds in the off season and gets a bit quicker. Right now he can't keep up with the play.

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#25 McDavid's Comet
February 15 2017, 01:37PM
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Towersofdub wrote:

my comments about cancer weren't ignorant. in many cases cancer is a treatable illness. Ask Brandon Davidson or Phil Kessel. They seem like they're doing alright. so is my mom.

Dude, just give it up! I'm a cancer survivor and don't appreciate ignoramuses such as your self piping-off about experiences that you clearly have absolutely no appreciation for. So do me the favour and drop it, I'm tired of reading about your insensitivity on the subject. Own it and leave it alone.

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#26 Spydyr
February 15 2017, 11:49AM
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Spydyr wrote:

Mod Note: We're leaving that one alone here, please.

Fair enough .It is hockey and Oiler related but a sensitive subject and I can understand and respect why you would choose not to talk about it in this forum.

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#27 Spydyr
February 15 2017, 01:25PM
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Boom or Bust wrote:

Seriously its not as bad as towers of dubs stupid ignorant cancer comments!!!!

Apples and oranges what I posted was a legitimate news story breaking all over the MSM. What he posted was a personally and IMO faulty opinion.

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#28 Big Jacks Meat
February 15 2017, 11:10AM
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I Think Lucic is smart enough to know he needs to drop a few pounds and work on his leg strength over the summer. He will still be an intimidating force 15 - 20 lbs lighter , he is not here for just his nasty , he is a skilled usefull player who can still slap you.. This year he learned I believe,he is proud and will do what he needs to do. You really think Nuge or Eberle have brought what they do best..Nope.

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#29 Shameless Plugger
February 15 2017, 12:14PM
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Spydyr wrote:

Fair enough .It is hockey and Oiler related but a sensitive subject and I can understand and respect why you would choose not to talk about it in this forum.

WTF does it have to do with this article? Hockey/oiler related notwithstanding. Man your dumb sometimes.

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#30 McDavid's Comet
February 15 2017, 12:50PM
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Shameless Plugger wrote:

This is a HOCKEY blog. Take that crap elswhere.

Take it easy, we all make mistakes. He owned it.

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#31 Heschultzhescores
February 15 2017, 02:12PM
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Lucic Brings a whole lot more than goal scoring to this team. He is a leader in the dressing room from all accounts. His presence is worth something, and I'm sure he will perform during the playoffs, and that is something not every, so called, star can say.

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#32 Jordan88
February 15 2017, 02:17PM
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Lucic... what do we hate more the contract or the player?

This smells like ON and the Horcoff situation all over. I think Lucic has alot of intangibles as a player and leader.

I have hated advanced stats and stats in general for many years. Eakins era finally made me completely dismiss them as nothing more than a yardstick.

I think Lucic needs to get into a conditioning routine and lose mass. I think if we could get all of our big guys to work together on that we would be perfect.

Whoever made Draisaitil as quick as he is should be on the Oilers coaching staff. In his rookie year he was slow skating, slow on the play, and slow to back check. Now he is a force. I think a lighter leaner lucic can be just as mean and punishing but faster. And I think that is scary as hell.

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#33 TigerUnderGlass
February 16 2017, 12:36AM
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The fact that so many fans are happy to see the team pay $6M to a guy for a 45 point season because 'grrrr' says more about what is wrong with this franchise than anything else I can come up with.

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#34 chickenStew
February 15 2017, 11:09AM
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I actually wonder if he has vision problems.

If you watch closely, he really has trouble locating the puck when it comes to him. Those extra half seconds are a huge factor. Not to mention the wayward passes. He must be able to put the puck where he wants to after all this time, is it because he isn't seeing things as he used to?

It happens to the best of us, and sometimes a guy can be in denial about it.

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#35 Shameless Plugger
February 15 2017, 12:07PM
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I'll give Lucic a pass this year. It took Sekera a full year to acclimatize to being here. Sometimes it takes awhile to adjust. I'm confident the real Lucic will stand up come crunch/playoff time.

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#36 Shameless Plugger
February 15 2017, 12:23PM
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Spydyr wrote:

It is an Oiler blog it was about an Oiler. Get over yourself.

It has absolutely ZERO to do with the current Oilers. Not to mention he doesn't even play in the league anymore. Self serving much?

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#37 Boom or Bust
February 15 2017, 03:09PM
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Towersofdub wrote:

I understand the disease enough. One parent had it and survived it thus far, a grand parent had it and died from it. I'm not being insensitive by saying it can be treated in many cases. It's a disease, i get it. In many cases, including yours apparently, it's treatable. You're alive, right?

You understand nothing you brainless twerp. You are totally insensitive and this comment just proves how ignorant you are. Sad

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#38 Hemi-97
February 15 2017, 11:40AM
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Lucic will be very valuable down the stretch and in the playoffs is where you'll see his true value. Think of Claude Lemieux and his regular seasons vs playoffs!

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#39 Spydyr
February 15 2017, 11:58AM
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Morgo_82 wrote:

Now I wanna know what it was.

I'm pretty sure you will come across it yourself soon enough.

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#40 McDavid's Comet
February 15 2017, 12:13PM
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Spydyr wrote:

Mod Note: We're leaving that one alone here, please.

Whoa! Spydyr you got moderated on ON, that's pretty hard to do here. Whatever you said must have been pretty bad. Take it easy man, it's just hockey.

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#41 Serious Gord
February 15 2017, 12:30PM
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Test

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#42 Towersofdub
February 15 2017, 03:14PM
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Boom or Bust wrote:

You understand nothing you brainless twerp. You are totally insensitive and this comment just proves how ignorant you are. Sad

hardly, but have your say, get all your bad vibes out. I can take it.

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#43 Oiler Al
February 15 2017, 04:44PM
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wiseguy wrote:

Hanging around the net - you mean that tough area of the ice that Oilers players are traditionally adverse to? Because so many goals are scored outside of those tough areas in todays NHL?

If you are making $7 million a year , you have to be more than a pylon infront of the net, otherwise you have a short career....Penner says hello.

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#44 Towersofdub
February 15 2017, 11:34AM
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to me, it always looks like Lucic is using a stick that is 2 inches too short. the kind of stick you'd use to stickhandle in a phone booth, not the sort of stick you'd use if you're expected to crash and bang in the corners, create turnovers, and get good lumber on a shot.

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#45 Spydyr
February 15 2017, 01:29PM
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Towersofdub wrote:

his dad's suicide.

Jokes about suicide.......nice.

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#46 Petrolero
February 16 2017, 01:53AM
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TigerUnderGlass wrote:

The fact that so many fans are happy to see the team pay $6M to a guy for a 45 point season because 'grrrr' says more about what is wrong with this franchise than anything else I can come up with.

You have some pretty stupid opinions but you think they're smart. That's just sad.

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#47 the dope $teez
February 15 2017, 10:53AM
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I also think a small part of the struggle is due to his usage by the coaching staff. We saw good Lucic last night (or at least not AS damaging) with some decent physicality and work on the boards. His strengths should be utilized effectively, which oftentimes they are not.

I see Lucic as being the type of player to help establish and continue a cycle game, then push the puck into the slot with a crisp pass or force it to the net when d-zone coverage breaks down. CMD is a whiz-kid and is going to take advantage of ice he's given, but you have to admit he is a rush player, no question. Lucic just simply can't keep up, and by the time he gets to the play he is either gassed or can't make the right decision quickly enough...

I say give Looch, Drai and Shlip Shlappy some more run and see if they can establish a puck-protection cycle game effectively. Use their bodies, move their feet and wear down defenders.

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#48 Morgo_82
February 15 2017, 11:55AM
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Spydyr wrote:

Fair enough .It is hockey and Oiler related but a sensitive subject and I can understand and respect why you would choose not to talk about it in this forum.

Now I wanna know what it was.

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#49 Shameless Plugger
February 15 2017, 12:35PM
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Spydyr wrote:

Guess you don't want to keep current on any other former Oilers either? Head in the sand much?

This is a HOCKEY blog. Take that crap elswhere.

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#50 McDavid's Comet
February 15 2017, 01:38PM
Trash it!
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Towersofdub wrote:

it's 2017. People survive many forms of cancer. It's treatable. I don't understand why this has upset so many people. Brandon Davidson is healthy enough to play NHL hockey.

That's not what you said, just give it up already!

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