2016-17 Playoff Predictions

Christiaan Conradie
April 12 2017 12:12PM

It's the most wonderful time of the year. The regular season is over and five Canadian teams made the playoffs. Quite the change from last year, when none made it. Just like last year, however, the Washington Capitals won the President's Trophy and are a hot pick to win the Stanley Cup. 

Do the numbers have a different prediction? In this article I'll look at shot and goal differentials to separate the pretenders from contenders. 

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Working backwards to figure out the Cup winner

Christiaan Conradie
August 08 2016 03:00PM

Arguably the most basic question in hockey analytics will probably always remain the same: can we use (a given stat) to predict how well (a team/player/lineup) will perform the future? As such, predicting the Stanley Cup champion is a yearly exercise many of us try to do, often testing out a number of hypotheses by mixing in different variables.

The purpose of this article is not so much to figure out which teams could have been expected to have done well, but which ones should not have.  As such, I calculated each teams' goal and shot differentials (the raw data can be found here). 

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