February 02 2013 10:09AM
Colby Cosh breaks down the impact of randomness and luck in the 2013 season:
...The final league table this year will be more a product of randomness than of talent.
We should be aware that predictions about standings for this shortened season are not much good. The very best teams will be ranked high, and the very worst low: but for teams anywhere near the cutoff for the playoffs, the chances of making it into the postseason will be a lot closer to 16 out of 30, a pure crapshoot, than our lifelong experience of hockey might lead us to think.
I looked at how randomness can impact individual performances over a 48 game season in "Luck Can Dominate A 48 Game Schedule":
Brian Elliott's 2011-12 season was nothing short of stunning. His .940 save percentage was four percentage points higher than his career .901 save percentage. Ken Hitchcock was credited with saving Elliott's career and inflating his number's with a keen defensive system. But that isn't likely. What is more likely is that Elliott experienced the luckiest streak of his career, saving 38 more shots than pre-2011 Brian Elliott would have. Those 38 goals account for 6 wins, which in a 48 game season can mean the difference between 1st and 10th in the conference!
Cosh's piece is outstanding - click through to read the entire thing at Maclean’s: "Randumbness? The new NHL is less predictable than you think"
February 01 2013 02:28PM
Sure, the NHL season is just seven games old, but for draft watchers, it's never too early to play with mock drafts. With the posting of our most recent Consensus Top 100, we can debut our first edition of the 2013 NHL Mock Entry Draft. For the first time since 2006, the Oilers aren't at the very top of the mock draft list, meaning some other team gets to brag about their beuild through terrible play. This year's first candidate is the Washington Capitals, who are currently using the most prolific goal-scorer of the last 10 years in a checking capacity.
Also of note: Columbus currently has three picks in the top 12, their own (#5) the Kings (as a result of the Jeff Carter trade) and the Rangers (as a result of the Rick Nash trade).
The mock draft uses the NHL standings as of this morning for the selection priority and the NHL Numbers Consensus Top 100 List for the picks. The sources for the consensus list are Bob McKenzie, Future Considerations, ISS, Ryan Kennedy, Craig Button, Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus, and The Scouting Report. Their rankings are weight by their accuracy in ranking previous drafts: Bob McKenzie's rankings carry the most weight as he's the most accurate prognosticator in the group.
January 31 2013 07:32PM
Rasmus Ristolainen remains a fixture in the top 10.
Photo by: Tuomas Vitikainen, via Wikimedia Commons
The 2013 NHL Draft is shaping up to be a boring one, outside of the 1 vs. 2 debate, akin to the 2010 "Taylor vs. Tyler" debate. Halifax Moosehead centre Nathan MacKinnon and Portland Winterhawks defenseman Seth Jones still have a stranglehold on the top two spots and Aleksander Barkov has locked down #3.
Swedes are slumping, the Q is rising and as always, everyone is unsure about the Russians in the 2013 NHL Draft Consensus Ranking.
The sources for the consensus list are Bob McKenzie, Future Considerations, ISS, Ryan Kennedy, Craig Button, Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus, and The Scouting Report. Their rankings are weight by their accuracy in ranking previous drafts: Bob McKenzie's rankings carry the most weight as he's the most accurate prognosticator in the group.
January 31 2013 09:49AM
Boy, does it feel good to finally have hockey to talk about. We broached the topic of when the sample size becomes large enough to take seriously, and when we expect the wheels to come off for the Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens. Plus, we marvel at the individual cases of Patrick Marleau, Marc-Andre Bergeron, and Daniel Winnik.
We would love to hear from you, the listener, for suggestions on future topics of discussion. Rather than us just being in our own little world, we'd like to make this as interactive a show as possible. Feel free to tweet at either Dimitri or Cam .
Click Past the Jump to Listen to the Podcast.
January 28 2013 09:41AM
There's no place to get all 30 NHL team PDO numbers, so I thought I may as well place them here every Monday morning. I explain PDO as a team-level stat at this post over at the Backhand Shelf, although there's obviously much more detailed studies of PDO throughout the hockey statistical blogosphere.
I took the numbers from Behind The Net.ca's team pages and sorted it into a spreadsheet, for everybody's benefit...