Score-Adjusted Fenwick and Remaining Strength of Schedule

Travis Yost
January 13 2014 02:02PM


As far as I'm aware, the only NHL-based strength of schedule stuff around the internet can be found through Jeff Sagarin's ratings over at USA Today. Problem, of course, is that goals and goal differentials are great to look at if you want to know why a team currently sits where they do in the standings; it does far less to assist in future forecasting.

Knowing what we know about the predictive value of Score-Adjusted Fenwick (and the fact that it's still not automated anywhere on the internet), I went ahead and compiled the number for each NHL team, accurate through January 14, 2014. Then, I went ahead and compiled strength of schedules based on the average Score-Adjusted Fenwick each club will see through the rest of the season.

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The Log Off Podcast: "Dustin Byfuglien is a Big Blue Circle"

Dimitri Filipovic
January 10 2014 03:33PM

Sup? [GIF via Dan McQuade]

We're back with the 2nd episode of the "Log Off Podcast" in which we discuss hockey ad nauseam until it's time for us to, well, log off. Last time you heard from us was on Monday, when we spent the entirety of the show previewing what we thought Team Canada's roster would look like.

Well, with a few days to let it all sink in and marinate, we now feel it's a good time to take a quick look at who was "snubbed", and what kinds of adjustments we'd make. In case you're looking for a cynical take on the team, then feel free to skip past the first 5 or 6 minutes.. because we seemed to share a fairly positive outlook on the result, all things considered.

After that, we hopped around all over the NHL, talking about the mess that's taking place in Winnipeg right now (spurred by the news that Dustin Byfuglien will be moving back to forward, despite a largely successful run as a blueliner over the past few seasons), the dry spell in Vancouver (and their weird season to-date), and the complete and utter tire fire in Toronto (which'll hopefully conclude with Randy Carlyle being shot into outer space).. 

Click past the jump to stream the podcast!

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The Log Off Podcast: Picking Team Canada

Dimitri Filipovic
January 06 2014 06:00PM

Devan Dubnyk is Canada's #1 goaltender heading into Sochi.

It has been a while since Cam and I have recorded a podcast for NHL Numbers, but it's a new year, and as a resolution of sorts we've decided that we'd like to crank out 2-a-week in 2014. What better topic the return of the pod than the players Team Canada will be taking to represent the country in Sochi.

We spent roughly 40 minutes or so breaking down Bob McKenzie's proposed team, and making adjustments as we saw fit. At least that's what we did for the forwards and defensemen. For the 3 goalies, we used a slightly less scientific strategy of picking names out of a tuque (how very Canadian of us, I know..).

Click past the jump to stream the podcast!

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Monte Carlo Method and Final Standing Predictions

Josh W
January 03 2014 10:39AM

Monte Carlo simulations are a really fun and interesting way to make predictions in just about anything, and this can be applied to many fields including hockey. Many different websites and experts use Monte Carlos to make predictions in hockey to determine final standings and points of teams. In this experiment, I create my own Monte Carlo to see if I can make similar prediction with reasonable outcomes. I then apply this method to the Vancouver Canucks and the Canadian teams in general.

To read learn more on my method, continue past the jump:

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Advanced Stats Crash Course: Possession (Part 1)

Kent Wilson
December 27 2013 11:31AM



Although "new stats" are still considered the useless obsession of a small collection of dilettantes in some quarters, they are nevertheless growing in prominence and use across the game. Possession stats like corsi are the basis of this upheaval and I still get a lot of questions and requests for clarification when it comes to these sorts of metrics.

Instead of answer them individually via email I decided to put together a crash course of the most important measures. In this series, I'll discuss what the measures are, what they mean, why they are useful and how they can easily referenced.

We'll start with corsi.

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