Percentages vs. Timing

Jonathan Willis
June 03 2012 02:37PM

Image courtesy of Wikimedia Commons; own work produced by Resolute.

One of the most frequent counterarguments to any percentage statistic – whether it be special teams’ effectiveness, save percentage, or something else – is the notion that overall percentage matters less than careful timing.

It’s an inane argument.

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Stanley Cup Finals Game 2 Scoring Chances

Corey S.
June 03 2012 07:03AM


By Resolute, via Wikimedia Commons

Most people who watched this game will probably tell you that the Devils were the better team even though they lost in overtime. That statement was true for most of the game where the Devils had a 19-14 advantage in scoring chances....and then overtime happened. The Kings were a bit lackluster overall but they just took the game over during overtime and now have themselves a 2-0 series lead. This definitely wasn't LA's best performance and they did get lucky a few times tonight, but that's what generally happens in the playoffs. Sometimes you need to have a few bounces go your way and that includes a team as good as the Kings.

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NHLNumbers Podcast: Talking with Zemgus Girgensons and Neil Greenberg

NHLnumbers Podcast
June 01 2012 05:05PM

In the latest NHLnumbers podcast, we talked to Latvian prospect Zemgus Girgensons who Pierre McGuire will tell us played for the Dubuque Fighting Saints of the USHL. For the second segment, we discussed the Capitals' playoff run and coaching situation and a whole lot of #fancystats with Neil Greenberg of the Washington Post and ESPN Insider.

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2012 Stanley Cup Finals Game 1 Scoring Chances

Corey S.
June 01 2012 10:30AM

 

By Resolute (Own work) [CC-BY-SA-3.0 (www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

By Resolute (Own work) [CC-BY-SA-3.0 (www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Even though the Devils are the higher seeded team in this series, the general consensus among most hockey minds is that the Kings are the better team and one of the reasons is because they have a stronger defense corps. That advantage showed in a big way in Game 1. Both teams have pretty dangerous top lines but the Kings can match up against the Parise line with their fantastic defense pairing of Drew Doughty and Rob Scuderi. The Devils do not have a defense pairing that is nearly as good to match against the Kopitar line and that ended up being one of the reasons they lost Game 1.

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Did home scorer bias affect Roy and Hasek?

Cam Charron
May 31 2012 07:28PM

As Eric noted yesterday, Martin Brodeur's true talent may not be captured by his save percentage, since the home scorer in New Jersey probably did not count shots as effectively. Brodeur faced much fewer shots against in Jersey and had a lower save percentage. But his goals against was also much lower as well, leading me to believe that the Devils ought to have played better at home, but on the surface, Brodeur didn't.

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