2013 NHL Mock Draft - Florida Gets Jones, MacKinnon To The Avs
Derek Zona
April 14 2013 07:26AM
MacKinnon, Duchene, Landeskog - the young Avs will be impressive.
Photo by MR_53 via Flickr Photostream
The top of the draft order is beginning to take shape. The Southeast Division (which will no longer exist after the draft) is set to snag 3 of the top 5 picks and three Canadian teams might be drafting in the top 10.
The mock draft uses the NHLNumbers Predictive Model and the NHL Numbers Consensus Top 100 List for the picks. The sources for the consensus list are Bob McKenzie, Future Considerations, ISS, Ryan Kennedy, Craig Button, Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus, and The Scouting Report. Their rankings are weight by their accuracy in ranking previous drafts: Bob McKenzie's rankings carry the most weight as he's the most accurate prognosticator in the group.
NHLNumbers Predictive Power Rankings, 4-14-13
Derek Zona
April 14 2013 06:56AM
Photo by Robert Kowal via Wikimedia Commons
The season winds down and only a few playoff positions are still open. We're still churning through our power rankings model based on underlying statistics and their predicative ability. Our rankings aren't based solely on the current NHL standings, though points earned are a portion of the model, they are based on a number of underlying metrics so the rankings are constantly in flux.
We're still tweaking the model, so we're not quite ready to unveil it, but consider this NHLNumbers' current best effort at predicting the standings and playoff pairings at the end of the season. One item of note - 38% of the game is luck, and we don't attempt to predict or model that 38%, and we don't plan to.
2013 NHL Draft Consensus - Seth Jones Rules, Valeri Nichushkin On The Rise
Derek Zona
April 13 2013 09:42AM
Photo by: Bri Weldon, via Wikipedia Commons
Barring a very late surprise run up these rankings, the players at the top of these rankings have broken up into a couple of very clear stratifications. Seth Jones is a clear #1 at this point, with 6 of the 7 1st-place rankings among our sources. Then the next two on the list - Halifax teammates Nathan MacKinnon and Jonathan Drouin are well ahead of the rest of the pack. And mirroring that same gap, Aleksander Barkov and Valeri Nichushkin are now well clear at #4 and #5.
Nichushkin, the big (6'4 198) Russian winger is the biggest mover in the top 18 this month, up two spots to #5. He's had a marvelous KHL playoffs as his Traktor Chelyabinsk team has advanced to the Gagarin Cup Finals against Dynamo Moscow. But Nichushkin will not see the end of the series - he's been at the centre of a national controversy, and will leave to play with the national team after game 4.
The sources for the consensus list are Bob McKenzie, Future Considerations, ISS, Ryan Kennedy, Craig Button, Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus, and The Scouting Report. Their rankings are weight by their accuracy in ranking previous drafts: Bob McKenzie's rankings carry the most weight as he's the most accurate prognosticator in the group.
NHLNumbers Predictive Power Rankings, 3/17/13
Derek Zona
March 17 2013 07:45AM
Photo by Dan4th Nicholas via Wikimedia Commons
Time is running out on those teams chasing cursed lady luck. The Kings have come charging from way back, but Anaheim's goaltenders are keeping the Ducks afloat. The Wild keep hitting the hard-ways and grabbing points from the rest of the conference and get to play the awful Northwest to close out the season - no team outside of the Southeast plays an easier schedule the rest of the way. And the Leafs, oh those Leafs, have used an incredible special teams heater to overcome their shot woes.
These rankings aren't presented as a look at the current standings or last couple of weeks' worth of performances. Our goal is to build a predictive model that gives us a glimpse into the season-ending standings and first-round playoff matchups. Our rankings aren't based solely on the current NHL standings, though points earned are a significant portion of the model, they are based on a number of underlying metrics so the rankings are constantly in flux. This week we've added remaining opponents in the hopes of building a better model.
We're still tweaking that model, so we're not quite ready to unveil it, but consider this NHLNumbers' current best effort at predicting the standings and playoff pairings at the end of the season. One item of note - 38% of the game is luck, and we don't attempt to predict or model that 38%, and we don't plan to.
Toronto's Penalty Kill Success - Can It Last?
Derek Zona
March 12 2013 12:09PM
Photo by Uwe Kils, via Wikimedia Commons
While the argument in Toronto has centered around shot rates and shooting percentage, there's another metric to keep your eye on in Toronto - penalty kill percentage.
