NHLNumbers Predictive Power Rankings, 3/10/13

Derek Zona
March 10 2013 08:43AM

Photo by Michael Miller, via Wikimedia Commons

Half-way through the season and not much is changing in the predictive power rankings even though we're still adding to the model. One item of note is the race for 8th in the Western Conference. If Kari Lehtonen is healthy, Dallas is clear of the bottom portion of the conference for the last playoff spot. Minnesota, Calgary and Phoenix are clumped together behind the Stars as the 9th, 10th and 11th best teams in the West. Even though the Wild aren't better than last year's team, and Calgary is a mess in goal, they have an advantage over the Stars and Coyotes - they play each other and the awful Oilers and Avalanche a combined 7 times before the season is over.

These rankings aren't presented as a look at the current standings or last couple of weeks' worth of performances. Our goal is to build a predictive model that gives us a glimpse into the season-ending standings and first-round playoff matchups. Our rankings aren't based solely on the current NHL standings, though points earned are a significant portion of the model, they are based on a number of underlying metrics so the rankings are constantly in flux. This week we've added remaining opponents in the hopes of building a better model.

We're still tweaking that model, so we're not quite ready to unveil it, but consider this NHLNumbers' current best effort at predicting the standings and playoff pairings at the end of the season. One item of note - 38% of the game is luck, and we don't attempt to predict or model that 38%, and we don't plan to.

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Numbers You Need To Know: #2 - Seth Jones

Derek Zona
March 07 2013 07:31AM

Photo by leech44, via Wikimedia Commons

Seth Jones is likely to be the first overall pick in the 2013 NHL Draft. Jones has pulled away from Nathan MacKinnon in the NHLNumbers Conensus Top 100. The Scouting Report is included in those rankings and has Jones at #1 overall:

An excellent skater especially for his size, Jones is a rare combination of athleticism and skill. More than capable of playing in the NHL next year, Jones will be a quality transition defenseman with top 4 capabilities from day 1. A strong slap shot and good hockey sense will allow him to also see powerplay minutes early in his career.

Though he'll be the #1 overall pick, he'll be #2 in the NHL. After Jones is drafted by the Blue Jackets, Oilers or whatever team wins the new lottery, he will suit up for his first NHL game sometime in October. When he does, Seth Jones will become only the second player named Seth to ever play in the NHL. Seth Martin, a goaltender for the St. Louis Blues, played 30 games in 1967-68. Jones will surpass that games played mark some time before Christmas.

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2013 NHL Mock Draft - Seth Jones Goes To Columbus

Derek Zona
March 05 2013 10:42AM

Will Kekalainen add Seth Jones to Ryan Murray on the blueline, or will he go with Drouin or MacKinnon?
Photo by: Fanny Schertzer, via Wikimedia Commons

Seth Jones has seperated himself from the pack and has become a strong be to be the first overall pick at the NHL Draft in June. There's just one problem - the Blue Jackets drafted defender Ryan Murray last season at #2 overall after losing the draft lottery to the Edmonton Oilers. Will Columbus take another blueliner or will Jarmo Kekalainen go with Nathan MacKinnon or the fast-rising Jonathan Drouin at #1 and leave Jones for the Buffalo Sabres?

Poor Columbus. Just a month ago, they had three picks in the top 12 at #5, #8, and #12. As the Rangers and Kings move up in the standings, those picks are falling through the first round. Our Predictive Model shows the Jackets drafting #1, #19 and #21 now.

The mock draft uses the NHLNumbers Predictive Model and the NHL Numbers Consensus Top 100 List for the picks. The sources for the consensus list are Bob McKenzie, Future Considerations, ISS, Ryan Kennedy, Craig Button, Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus, and The Scouting Report. Their rankings are weight by their accuracy in ranking previous drafts: Bob McKenzie's rankings carry the most weight as he's the most accurate prognosticator in the group.

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2013 NHL Draft Consensus - Seth Jones Takes Over, Jonathan Drouin Closes In

Derek Zona
March 04 2013 07:31AM

Photo by Bri Weldon, via Wikimedia Commons

Seth Jones has separated himself from Nathan MacKinnon and Jonathan Drouin is closing in on MacKinnon. Meanwhile Aleksander Barkov is tearing up the Finnish leagues.

The sources for the consensus list are Bob McKenzie, Future Considerations, ISS, Ryan Kennedy, Craig Button, Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus, and The Scouting Report. Their rankings are weight by their accuracy in ranking previous drafts: Bob McKenzie's rankings carry the most weight as he's the most accurate prognosticator in the group.

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NHLNumbers Predictive Power Rankings, 3/3/13

Derek Zona
March 03 2013 09:39AM

Photo by Leech44, via Wikimedia Commons

We're 40% of the way through the lockout-shortened 2013 season and three things are certain - Chicago, Anaheim, Boston and Montreal are in the playoffs; Columbus and Florida aren't; and the New York Islanders would be in the playoffs even if they had just average goaltending, like Minnesota.

These rankings aren't presented as a look at the current standings or last couple of weeks' worth of performances. Our goal is to build a predictive model that gives us a glimpse into the season-ending standings and first-round playoff matchups. Our rankings aren't based solely on the current NHL standings, though points earned are a significant portion of the model, they are based on a number of underlying metrics so the rankings are constantly in flux. This week we've added remaining opponents in the hopes of building a better model. Many have asked about how injuries are accounted for in the predictive model. They aren't included - yet.