2013 NHL Mock Draft - Is Colorado Bluffing With Seth Jones?

Derek Zona
June 27 2013 09:52AM

Joe Sakic
Photo by Hakan Dahlstrom, via Wikimedia Commons

 The top of the draft is a jumble.  The first four men in the Consensus Rankings are seperated by the slimmest of margins and any of them will certainly help Colorado, Florida, Tampa and Nashville.  The biggest story thus far is Joe Sakic publicly declaring Nathan MacKinnon as the man for the Avs, passing on local boy and franchise defenseman Seth Jones.  Dale Tallon is pinching himself.

Calgary and Columbus will each pick three times in the first round, for Columbus, fans hope it's the final chapter in the second-worst saga in the NHL as Jarmo Kekalainen begins anew after having ended the reign of terror.  For Calgary, fans hope Jay Feaster can fix everything that's gone wrong since 2005.

The sources for the consensus list are Bob McKenzie, Future Considerations, ISS, The Hockey News, Craig Button, Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus, and The Scouting Report.  Their rankings are weight by their accuracy in ranking previous drafts: Bob McKenzie's rankings carry the most weight as he's the most accurate prognosticator in the group.

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2013 NHL Draft Rankings Consensus Top 100 - A Photo Finish

Derek Zona
June 26 2013 08:30PM

 

2011 nhl draft
Photo by Bri Weldon, via Wikipedia

 

This is a race that goes down to the wire.  Seth Jones took over from Nathan MacKinnon early, but never quite slipped the #2 ranked player.  Meanwhile Jonathan Drouin stalked the top spot, while Sasha Barkov set records in the SM-liiga and kept chugging along 4th overall.  The gap in the Consensus Rankings between #1 Seth Jones and #4 Sasha Barkov is smaller than the gap between last year's #1 Nail Yakupov and #2 Filip Forsberg.  There's a bunch of talent at the top, and it's closely bunched.  Seems like any pick in the top four will be a good one, regardless of where they're taken.

The sources for the consensus list are Bob McKenzie, Future Considerations, ISS, The Hockey News, Craig Button, Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus, and The Scouting Report.  Their rankings are weight by their accuracy in ranking previous drafts: Bob McKenzie's rankings carry the most weight as he's the most accurate prognosticator in the group.

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2013 NHL Mock Draft - Florida Gets Jones, MacKinnon To The Avs

Derek Zona
April 14 2013 07:26AM

Nathan MacKinnon
MacKinnon, Duchene, Landeskog - the young Avs will be impressive.
Photo by MR_53 via Flickr Photostream

The top of the draft order is beginning to take shape.  The Southeast Division (which will no longer exist after the draft) is set to snag 3 of the top 5 picks and three Canadian teams might be drafting in the top 10.

The mock draft uses the NHLNumbers Predictive Model and the NHL Numbers Consensus Top 100 List for the picks.  The sources for the consensus list are Bob McKenzie, Future Considerations, ISS, Ryan Kennedy, Craig Button, Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus, and The Scouting Report.  Their rankings are weight by their accuracy in ranking previous drafts: Bob McKenzie's rankings carry the most weight as he's the most accurate prognosticator in the group.

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NHLNumbers Predictive Power Rankings, 4-14-13

Derek Zona
April 14 2013 06:56AM

Michael Grabner
Photo by Robert Kowal via Wikimedia Commons

The season winds down and only a few playoff positions are still open.  We're still churning through our power rankings model based on underlying statistics and their predicative ability.  Our rankings aren't based solely on the current NHL standings, though points earned are a portion of the model, they are based on a number of underlying metrics so the rankings are constantly in flux. 

We're still tweaking the model, so we're not quite ready to unveil it, but consider this NHLNumbers' current best effort at predicting the standings and playoff pairings at the end of the season.  One item of note - 38% of the game is luck, and we don't attempt to predict or model that 38%, and we don't plan to.

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2013 NHL Draft Consensus - Seth Jones Rules, Valeri Nichushkin On The Rise

Derek Zona
April 13 2013 09:42AM

NHL Draft aerial shot
Photo by: Bri Weldon, via Wikipedia Commons

Barring a very late surprise run up these rankings, the players at the top of these rankings have broken up into a couple of very clear stratifications.  Seth Jones is a clear #1 at this point, with 6 of the 7 1st-place rankings among our sources.  Then the next two on the list - Halifax teammates Nathan MacKinnon and Jonathan Drouin are well ahead of the rest of the pack.  And mirroring that same gap, Aleksander Barkov and Valeri Nichushkin are now well clear at #4 and #5. 

Nichushkin, the big (6'4 198) Russian winger is the biggest mover in the top 18 this month, up two spots to #5.  He's had a marvelous KHL playoffs as his Traktor Chelyabinsk team has advanced to the Gagarin Cup Finals against Dynamo Moscow.  But Nichushkin will not see the end of the series - he's been at the centre of a national controversy, and will leave to play with the national team after game 4.

The sources for the consensus list are Bob McKenzie, Future Considerations, ISS, Ryan Kennedy, Craig Button, Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus, and The Scouting Report.  Their rankings are weight by their accuracy in ranking previous drafts: Bob McKenzie's rankings carry the most weight as he's the most accurate prognosticator in the group.

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