2013 NHL Draft Consensus - Seth Jones Takes Over, Jonathan Drouin Closes In

Derek Zona
March 04 2013 07:31AM

2011 nhl draft
Photo by Bri Weldon, via Wikimedia Commons

Seth Jones has separated himself from Nathan MacKinnon and Jonathan Drouin is closing in on MacKinnon. Meanwhile Aleksander Barkov is tearing up the Finnish leagues.

The sources for the consensus list are Bob McKenzie, Future Considerations, ISS, Ryan Kennedy, Craig Button, Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus, and The Scouting Report.  Their rankings are weight by their accuracy in ranking previous drafts: Bob McKenzie's rankings carry the most weight as he's the most accurate prognosticator in the group.

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NHLNumbers Predictive Power Rankings, 3/3/13

Derek Zona
March 03 2013 09:39AM

Ray Emery
Photo by Leech44, via Wikimedia Commons

We're 40% of the way through the lockout-shortened 2013 season and three things are certain - Chicago, Anaheim, Boston and Montreal are in the playoffs; Columbus and Florida aren't; and the New York Islanders would be in the playoffs even if they had just average goaltending, like Minnesota.  

These rankings aren't presented as a look at the current standings or last couple of weeks' worth of performances.  Our goal is to build a predictive model that gives us a glimpse into the season-ending standings and first-round playoff matchups.  Our rankings aren't based solely on the current NHL standings, though points earned are a significant portion of the model, they are based on a number of underlying metrics so the rankings are constantly in flux. This week we've added remaining opponents in the hopes of building a better model.  Many have asked about how injuries are accounted for in the predictive model.  They aren't included - yet. 

We're still tweaking that model, so we're not quite ready to unveil it, but consider this NHLNumbers' current best effort at predicting the standings and playoff pairings at the end of the season.  One item of note - 38% of the game is luck, and we don't attempt to predict or model that 38%, and we don't plan to.

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NHLNumbers Predictive Power Rankings

Derek Zona
February 23 2013 10:51AM

Patrice Bergeron
Is this the leader of the best team in the league?
Photo by Michael Miller via Wikimedia Commons

Power rankings are no fun for any writer or editor.  No matter the amount of effort or honesty involved in creating the rankings and slotting the teams, oversights happen and someone in every fanbase except the team ranked first overall will feel slighted and react like a toddler.

So we've set out to eliminate the effort by building a power rankings model based on underlying statistics and their predicative ability.  Our rankings aren't based solely on the current NHL standings, though points earned are a portion of the model, they are based on a number of underlying metrics so the rankings are constantly in flux. 

We're still tweaking the model, so we're not quite ready to unveil it, but consider this NHLNumbers' current best effort at predicting the standings and playoff pairings at the end of the season.  One item of note - 38% of the game is luck, and we don't attempt to predict or model that 38%, and we don't plan to.

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Phil Kessel scores, and there was never anything to worry about

Derek Zona
February 08 2013 10:48AM

Photo: Tim Alemenciak/Wikimedia

In my perfectly timed article on Phil Kessel yesterday, I noted that his scoreless streak, which ended last night, was not out of the norm for a shooter like Kessel:

"That said, if he continues to get pucks on goal they will start finding the twine eventually."

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Phil Kessel & Streaks

Derek Zona
February 07 2013 12:00PM

 

 

Phil Kessel is getting slammed by fans and the MSM and defended broadly in the Statosphere. Why? Kessel has played 10 games and hasn't tickled the twine. His first 42 shots on goal show nothing but a giant zero on the stat sheet. 

Should Leafs fans be worried?

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