June 26 2012 10:08AM
- graphic courtesy of The Russian Machine Never Breaks
For two years, my standard explanation for why we pay a lot of attention to shot differential (Corsi or Fenwick) is that it correlates strongly with scoring chances, zone time, and puck possession, and is the best predictor we have of future goal scoring. Each of those claims is based on seminal work by Vic Ferrari and JLikens.
June 20 2012 11:03AM
About the project
For the last year, Geoff Detweiler has been tracking the Flyers' zone entries and I have been writing about them for Broad Street Hockey. This article will be the first in a series in which I hope to introduce a new audience to the work and inspire a few readers to try tracking other teams.
May 30 2012 04:31PM
With Martin Brodeur headed to the Stanley Cup Finals yet again, the discussion about how to evaluate his career has been renewed recently.
Those on the statistical analysis end of the spectrum tend to point to his good-but-not-great save percentages and argue that Brodeur was never a dominant performer, but his longevity is remarkable.
May 27 2012 04:30PM
Photo by slgckgc via Wikimedia Commons
Bruce McCurdy had an excellent piece recently in which he tracked every time Ilya Bryzgalov and Martin Brodeur touched the puck during the Devils-Flyers series to show what a big difference there can be in puck-handling skills.
The difference was enormous -- Brodeur had 90 good passes and 8 bad ones to Bryzgalov's 15 and 10. When there was no safe pass, Brodeur cleared the puck away from the forecheckers 32 times to Bryzgalov's 13. There could be no question that Brodeur was playing the puck much more effectively than Bryzgalov.
Yet what was missing from the article was an assessment of how much that mattered. How much value does all of that skilled puck-handling add?
May 21 2012 01:01PM
There's no question that Zach Parise is an excellent player and will receive a lot of attention in free agency. Someone will sign him, and he will immediately make that team better.
But that improvement will come with a cost.