Sample Sizes, Results-Based Analysis, and Eric Nystrom
Josh L.
June 20 2012 01:40PM
Source: Wikipedia Commons
Sample size issues have been known to cause crazy amounts of unwarranted hysteria. The 2011/12 season of Eric Nystrom should be Exhibit A in the coming years whenever a player comes out throwing bulls eyes to start a season out of nowhere.
There is usually a reason the career bottom six player with ten goals by Thanksgiving startles you. In your mind you know it shouldn't happen, but it has. Yet, you look up again and said player is getting more ice time, playing against increasingly more difficult competition, and given more defensive responsibility. All of this after said player was given away by one of the worst teams in hockey to help the team you follow get above the cap floor after the New York Rangers ditched Sean Avery (which, I realize, makes very little sense). Fans had to attempt to reconcile what they saw on the ice with what they intuitively knew about the player.
This is the story of how Eric Nystrom confused an entire fan base for several months while proving how fickle small sample sizes and the results-based analysis springing from them can be.
David Jones: Last Train To Bank-sville
Josh L.
June 11 2012 12:38PM
The Colorado Avalanche have told the world "I'm A Believer" when it comes to David Jones. Last week they inked Jones to a four year deal with a four million dollar average annual value. They spent this coin on a forward with 67 goals in 239 career games. The initial thought I had was "Oh My My", but perception isn't always correct. The contract deserves a closer look to see if the Avs have legitimate reasons to believe or if they're really just "Daydream Believers".
Burying Nino Niederreiter
Josh L.
June 05 2012 12:00PM
The internet can be a cruel place. Nino Niederreiter had a bad season. In fact, it was historically unproductive. A quick Google search is probably all you need to see to realize how down casual observers are on Nino.
The second suggested search is "nino niederreiter bust". The former top ten pick played ten minutes a night on a bad team for 55 games and notched one solitary goal to go with exactly zero assists. It's early to call him a bust. As bad as his season was there is still plenty of reason for optimism going forward. Just how bad was his season though?
Oliver Ekman-Larsson's Undervalued Season
Josh L.
May 22 2012 12:33PM
Source: Wikipedia Commons
Very few people are familiar with the Phoenix Coyotes. Even fewer could pick Oliver Ekman-Larsson out of a lineup. There are numerous reasons for this unfortunate scenario, and with the season he just had that should change quickly.
When The Stars Went Back To The Drawing Board
Josh L.
May 17 2012 12:00PM
The Dallas Stars are a franchise that has been in flux for several years now. After making the deep playoff run on the heels of acquiring Brad Richards the Stars were looking up when Murphy's Law took over. The defense collapsed, the remaining core players from the 1999 Cup lost several steps, and Marty Turco fell off a cliff. Adding to the chaos was the fact that the Stars traded their premium draft picks in 2007 and 2008 for Ladislav Nagy and Mattias Norstrom (while drafting goalies Jack Campbell and Tyler Beskorowany high also).
Then, after refusing to waive his no trade clause at the 2011 trade deadline, Richards left for New York. The holes his departure left in the Stars lineup were huge. Richards manned a point on the powerplay, centered the top line, and took 70 more shots than anyone else on the roster. The Stars plan under new coach Glen Gulutzan was to rely on Mike Ribeiro and Jamie Benn (converting to center) as the top two centers.
