Establishing AHL Baselines for Prospect Success

Josh W
July 24 2015 09:37AM

Nearly every hockey fan has the basic understanding that the NHL is the best hockey league in the world and that to become an regular player in the league you need to be the best of the best. Combining this with the piling of recent evidence suggesting that the peak age of players is around the mid-20s, it starts to become apparent that fans in every fan base tend to be over-confident in the success of their AHL (and other) prospects.

It is important when studying prospects, and when wanting to increase the general understanding of the league, to establish a baseline of success for those in development leagues.  

Continue past the jump as we look into AHL success.

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Talent Left on the 2015 Draft Floor

Josh W
July 14 2015 02:02PM

Every year at the NHL Entry Draft a number of teams make really smart decisions on their picks (Islanders, Jets) while other teams seem to fall on their face (Bruins).  At the end of the 210 picks, inevitably there are players every year who are not chosen despite showing potential to be better than average picks.  This makes these players currently Unrestricted Free Agents and available to be signed to contracts by teams who feels they have potential.  

Looking back at the 2014 NHL Entry Draft, MoneyPuck used PCS to look back at those players who had a high chance of success at the NHL level.  (Un)surprisingly many were invited to teams camps and many went on to become important players on their teams, invited to World Juniors, and some were even signed to NHL teams.

With a current baseline of 8% of forwards and 5.6% of defencemen drafted move on to become NHL regulars, we can use PCS to look back at the 2015 draft and see players who should be invited to camps and are good bets to spend an ELC on.

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Nation Network Prospect Profiles: A Statistical Look at Draft Eligible Goalies

Josh W
June 26 2015 10:00AM

"Goalies are Voodoo." 

This is a mantra repeated at one point or another by nearly anyone within the hockey analytics community.  While a definite stretch of the truth, there’s some truth to it since goalies are extremely hard to predict. They are subject to small sample sizes including a full season of play, and nearly every goalie has their own unique development path.

Because of the difficulty in predicting goalies from such a young age it is oft-suggested to not use your draft picks on a goalie.  You can often select a cheap, average goalie from free agency, European leagues or the NCAA.  Because of the difficulty and the better options elsewhere I am oft in this camp.

The downside of not drafting a goaltender is that you are not likely to find an elite goaltender such as the Roberto Luongos, Carey Prices, or Henrik Lundqivst's of the world.  Should your team try and draft a goalie, despite the area being harder to predict, there are still some analytical rules you should follow.

Let's take a look at a few of 2015's most interesting goalie prospects after the jump.

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Nation Network Prospect Profiles: #10 Mikko Rantanen

Josh W
June 24 2015 02:33PM

As we head into our top-10 prospects in this profile series we are moving back to Finland to take a look at Mikko Rantanen – possibly the number 1 player to be drafted out of Europe this season.

It’s no surprise that Rantanen is very highly spoken of, it’s more a surprise that he’s only considered a top-10 pick. 

Continue past the jump for our player breakdown.

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Nation Network Prospect Profiles: #26 Joel Eriksson Ek

Josh W
June 19 2015 03:32PM

joelekeriksson

Photo Courtesy: @Sarah_Hobday

Back again on the other side of Atlantic, we are taking a look at the young centre Joel Eriksson Ek who has played a large amount of times in leagues senior to his age and has succeeded.  He appears he will likely be selected in the late first round, with potential to slip into the second but his talent level appears to suggest a top-6 centre.  For a later pick, Eriksson Ek is someone you should not pass on.

Continue past the jump for our qualitative and quantitative analysis.

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