Draft Analytics: Unveiling the Prospect Cohort Success Model

Josh W
May 26 2015 11:00AM

Prospects and amateur scouting are a new frontier within hockey analytics. Numbers can highlight some large market inefficiencies exploitable by teams if and when they start to advance their knowledge in this niche.  The numbers on prospects, especially when combined with knowledge of scouts, can tell you a lot more than the some of the largest mainstream scouting outlets.

In Money Puck's recent series of posts, he has touched on a proposed "re-tooling on the fly" method to help the Canucks sell off veterans for picks, pick up free agents to replace them, and then use those picks on prospects who could in turn help the Canucks in the future.  

You might have noticed him talking about PCS, or "Prospect Cohort Success." In this post, we will look more into what this technique is for analyzing prospects.

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A Summary of #OTTanalytics

Josh W
February 12 2015 01:00PM

This past weekend, Carleton University played host to the biggest Hockey Analytics Conference organized to date.  Michael Schuckers of St. Lawrenence University and Shirley Mills of Carleton University hosted the event, and it was a great success drawing talents from across the continent and across the eras of hockey analytics.

Read on past the jump for a summary of all of the presentations.

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Size Does Matter: Defencemen

Josh W
January 27 2015 09:30AM

In MoneyPuck’s most recent article, he analyzed the NHL success rate of CHL forwards based on their size and point production .  We know that offensive production is not the single determining factor as to whether an NHL player is good from an analytics perspective, but MoneyPuck demonstrated that point production in the CHL is a good indicator of NHL success.  Similarly, a player who is taller than average also increases their chances of success.  If you combine both factors positively in a young CHL forward, their chance of success rises greatly.

In our previous experiment, we split forward and defencemen data, as they are two different types of players and their success rates are different.  In this article, I will continue where MoneyPuck left off to present you the success rates for CHL defencemen, broken down by their height and CHL scoring rate. 

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World Juniors: What Happened?

Josh W
January 17 2015 09:00AM

worldjunior

Courtesy: http://www.worldjunior2015.com/

One game elimination tournaments in hockey can produce some interesting results. We can estimate possession statistics in the round robin portion, to determine who are the better teams, but that matters little when a goalie posting a shutout can cause a top ranked team to be eliminated by the bottom ranked team.  

This scenario is not unheard of at the IIHF World Under-20 Championships (World Juniors) which has allowed Sean McIndoe, of Down Goes Brown, to compare this tournament to the NCAA Basketball March Madness.

So what happened? Let's take a look.

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Top Goalies of the 2015 World Juniors

Josh W
January 08 2015 09:00AM


With the World Juniors over we can go back and look at how teams and performed over the tournament.  Much like scouts ranking Crouse at #3 in prospect rankings, we can use this small sample size to making sweeping generalizations about these players.

One of the fun areas to analyze is goalies given how difficult they are to predict, how easily they are affected by variances and how much they can effect the results of games. So let’s use what we know about goaltender analytics to see which were the best goaltenders of the tournament.

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