Number Chains - November 16, 2012 Links

Josh L.
November 16 2012 03:35PM

This new, regular feature on NHLNumbers will share interesting stats-related posts from around the web almost every day.

Welcome to edition number eleven of the rebooted Number Chains. In this space you will be able to find the best analytical hockey writing from around the internet on a close-to-daily basis. Subject matter will include statistical evaluation, financial analysis, contractual issues, and (sometimes) closely-related tangential works. If you have something you would like to submit for a future edition (your writing or that of someone else) feel free to send it to me via Twitter @JoshL1220 or leave a comment.

As the lockout drags on we have more and more lockout-related posts. I'm doing what I can to fill this space with as few lockout posts as reasonably possible. If you want to see more lockout posts feel free to let me know. With that being said, here is the least surprising story to come out of the lockout. NBA Commisioner David Stern fully supports his protege Gary Bettman:

A year after a lockout that delayed the start of the season to Dec. 25, Stern was critical of hockey union head Donald Fehr for his side's negotiating stance in the current NHL lockout. Fehr said that sports with salary caps are more prone to lockouts because of their labor structure.

Stern disagreed and said the 50-50 sharing arrangement agreed to by the NFL and NBA, and proposed by NHL owners, was fair.

"They have no choice but to stand and protect such business model as will be left when the negotiations finish," he said.

After the jump a weeks worth of statistical goodness can be found.

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The Friends with Numbers Podcast, Episode 1: "This Would Be A Lot Better If We Had Internet"

NHLnumbers Podcast
November 16 2012 09:27AM

This marks the debut of the 'Friends with Numbers' podcast, that Cam Charron and I will be doing until we're (forcefully) told to put our microphones away. 

What does this podcast entail, exactly, is a question that you may be asking. It'll mostly serve as a platform for us to discuss certain things that have caught our eye in the world of hockey; whether it's a team's success, a player's underlying numbers, or general concepts regarding the game. Obviously there will be an emphasis on numbers, given that this is the NHLNumbers network, but even if you're not all that fluent in that sort of speak, you'll hopefully be able to hang around with us.

We would love to hear from you, the listener, for suggestions on future topics of discussion. Rather than us just being in our own little world, we'd like to make this as interactive a show as possible. Feel free to tweet either myself, or Cam.

Click Past the Jump to Listen to the Podcast.

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Using Goal Differential to Predict the Future

Scott Reynolds
November 15 2012 04:26PM


Photo by Jeff Nelson via Wikimedia Commons

 At the start of each season, all teams are equal in the standings. A team that was among the league's worst a season ago is tied for first at the beginning of October December, and hope springs eternal for all but the most browbeaten fanbases. Of course, those particularly unfortunate fans remember something important that many fans like to forget: every team has a past, and that past matters. Sure, teams change in the off-season but there's a lot of continuity too, which means that, even when we confine ourselves to a simple thing like the previous season's goal differential, we can get a pretty decent idea of what can be reasonably expected in the year to come.

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Hogging the Puck: A Follow-Up (All That You Wanted & More)

Ben Wendorf
November 15 2012 07:45AM


After initially publishing the piece on players who "hog" the puck (players who take a high percentage of the Fenwick attempts-for {shots + missed shots} when they're on the ice), I received a lot of helpful feedback and queries about the metric, which I called "percentage of attempted shots," or %AttSh. Some of the questions revolved around, "What if the player is playing with someone with a high %AttSh, like Rick Nash or Jeff Carter?" I had another question wondering if the %AttSh had a normal distribution like all of us stats folks love. And our own Eric T. wondered aloud what a chart of the player's shooting percentage minus his linemates' shooting percentage (x) would look compared to the player's %AttSh (y). Some of these questions I'd been wondering about myself, but some were angles I hadn't considered, so I figured I ought to put together a follow-up post to tie up some of those loose ends. Enter if you dare...

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Reference library: Variance and regression

Eric T.
November 14 2012 04:50PM

This article is part of the NHL Numbers reference library, which seeks to collect articles from around the web that have contributed to our understanding of the game.

This page is devoted to articles that look at the role of variance and regression in hockey. This will include looking at how much variance a given statistic has and whether it reflects a true talent, how actual performances compare to random chance models, etc.

We need your help to keep the library complete and up to date -- contact me on Twitter (@BSH_EricT) or via email (bsh.erict -at- gmail) with suggestions of articles you think we should consider adding.

Return to the library main index.

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