July 31 2012 09:15AM
By 5of7 (Antoine Vermette) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
Over the last seven months, no general manager has been flogged more than Scott Howson of the Columbus Blue Jackets. His team came into last season with some promise only to finish dead last in points and a skeleton of what they were a year ago. Some of the things that went wrong for the Blue Jackets were beyond Howson’s control but he reacted in the worst way possible and Columbus is going to pay the price for it for years to come. The Blue Jackets and Howson’s reputation might be in shambles but something that gets overlooked is that Howson did a decent job in at least trying to build a contending team in Columbus.
July 30 2012 07:23AM
By 5of7 (Rick Nash), via Wikimedia Commons
Corey has already laid out some Rick Nash facts. Now that we know where he'll be playing next year, I'm going to take a stab at projecting how his production might change if he is on a line with Brad Richards.
To do that, I'll make estimates at how much the following factors might adjust his performance up or down from last year:
- How much more (or less) ice time will he get? (Affects goals and assists)
- How many more (or fewer) shots will his new line generate? (Affects goals and assists)
- How did last year's shooting percentage compare to his established career performance? (Affects goals)
- How should we expect his new linemates to affect his shooting percentage? (Affects goals)
- How much better (or worse) are his new linemates' shooting percentages? (Affects assists)
- How will his power play production change? (Affects goals and assists)
Obviously this will require some guesswork, and I'm not arguing that the season will play out exactly according to my arithmetic, but working through the results in this manner gives us a good baseline expectation for what is reasonable and for how important each of these factors is. Let's see where it takes us.
July 29 2012 05:13PM
Yesterday, I looked at all of the forwards drafted in 2012 using NHL equivalencies. There were some interesting questions raised about methodology (and what multiplier to use for each league), but we'll continue for the next three days using the same multipliers before re-evaluating what changes might be appropriate to use in the future. That said, today, we move on to tracking the progress of those forwards drafted in 2011.
July 29 2012 02:09PM
It's summer but there's still lots of hockey to talk about. Shane Doan is the league's foremost free agent and is rumoured to be going just about everywhere. In Edmonton, Nail Yakupov is now under contract and discussions on the new downtown arena are ongoing.
Allan Mitchell (better known as Lowetide) talks about all this and more with guests David Staples, Jonathan Willis, Kirk Luedeke, Cam Davie and Jeff Krushell.
This is Nation Radio.
July 28 2012 04:41PM
One of my favourite tools in evaluating prospects is Gabriel Desjardins' NHL equivalencies. The basic premise is that we can expect each player to bring only a portion of his offense from the league he played in last year were he to make the jump to the NHL. By observing how much offense other players brought from these other leagues in the past, we can estimate how much offense (on average) to expect from players from those leagues in the future.
It's an imperfect assessment of skill for sure -- we're just measuring offense after all -- and I think it generally works better for forwards than defenders (and goalies!), but it's one indicator for whether or not a player might one day find success in the NHL. It also gives us a tool to compare players in different leagues (although with young players it makes sense to cut the guys playing in the professional leagues some extra slack). After the jump I'll explain the system in a bit more depth and look at the performance of each of the forwards drafted in 2012 (in the days, we'll look at the forwards drafted in 2011, 2010, and 2009 over the next few days).