Projections for Rick Nash on the Rangers

Eric T.
July 30 2012 07:23AM

Rick Nash
By 5of7 (Rick Nash), via Wikimedia Commons

Corey has already laid out some Rick Nash facts. Now that we know where he'll be playing next year, I'm going to take a stab at projecting how his production might change if he is on a line with Brad Richards. 

To do that, I'll make estimates at how much the following factors might adjust his performance up or down from last year:

  • How much more (or less) ice time will he get? (Affects goals and assists)
  • How many more (or fewer) shots will his new line generate? (Affects goals and assists)
  • How did last year's shooting percentage compare to his established career performance? (Affects goals)
  • How should we expect his new linemates to affect his shooting percentage? (Affects goals)
  • How much better (or worse) are his new linemates' shooting percentages? (Affects assists)
  • How will his power play production change? (Affects goals and assists)

Obviously this will require some guesswork, and I'm not arguing that the season will play out exactly according to my arithmetic, but working through the results in this manner gives us a good baseline expectation for what is reasonable and for how important each of these factors is. Let's see where it takes us.

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Forwards and NHLE - 2011 Draft

Scott Reynolds
July 29 2012 05:13PM

gabriel landeskog

Photo by Sarah, via Wikimedia Commons, CCL

Yesterday, I looked at all of the forwards drafted in 2012 using NHL equivalencies. There were some interesting questions raised about methodology (and what multiplier to use for each league), but we'll continue for the next three days using the same multipliers before re-evaluating what changes might be appropriate to use in the future. That said, today, we move on to tracking the progress of those forwards drafted in 2011.

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Nation Radio - July 28, 2012

NationRadio
July 29 2012 02:09PM

It's summer but there's still lots of hockey to talk about. Shane Doan is the league's foremost free agent and is rumoured to be going just about everywhere. In Edmonton, Nail Yakupov is now under contract and discussions on the new downtown arena are ongoing. 

Allan Mitchell (better known as Lowetide) talks about all this and more with guests David Staples, Jonathan Willis, Kirk Luedeke, Cam Davie and Jeff Krushell.

This is Nation Radio.

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Forwards and NHLE - 2012 Draft

Scott Reynolds
July 28 2012 04:41PM

One of my favourite tools in evaluating prospects is Gabriel Desjardins' NHL equivalencies. The basic premise is that we can expect each player to bring only a portion of his offense from the league he played in last year were he to make the jump to the NHL. By observing how much offense other players brought from these other leagues in the past, we can estimate how much offense (on average) to expect from players from those leagues in the future.

It's an imperfect assessment of skill for sure -- we're just measuring offense after all -- and I think it generally works better for forwards than defenders (and goalies!), but it's one indicator for whether or not a player might one day find success in the NHL. It also gives us a tool to compare players in different leagues (although with young players it makes sense to cut the guys playing in the professional leagues some extra slack). After the jump I'll explain the system in a bit more depth and look at the performance of each of the forwards drafted in 2012 (in the days, we'll look at the forwards drafted in 2011, 2010, and 2009 over the next few days).

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Taking the right risks: Alex Semin edition

Corey S.
July 28 2012 11:46AM

Alexander Semin, Marcusvfx/Wikimedia Commons

Every franchise needs to gamble a little bit if they want to become a contender. This is especially true when it comes to signing free agents because you are essentially taking a risk whenever you sign a player to a contract. The degree of the risk is usually determined by the amount of money awarded to the player or the length of the contract. Teams are more likely to take long-term risks on players who are proven top-level talents (see Zach Parise and Ryan Suter) while lower, short-term deals are normally given out to those who have a number of question marks surrounding them (see Peter Mueller, Brad Boyes and Wojtek Wolski).

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