Taking the right risks: Alex Semin edition

Corey S.
July 28 2012 11:46AM

Alexander Semin, Marcusvfx/Wikimedia Commons

Every franchise needs to gamble a little bit if they want to become a contender. This is especially true when it comes to signing free agents because you are essentially taking a risk whenever you sign a player to a contract. The degree of the risk is usually determined by the amount of money awarded to the player or the length of the contract. Teams are more likely to take long-term risks on players who are proven top-level talents (see Zach Parise and Ryan Suter) while lower, short-term deals are normally given out to those who have a number of question marks surrounding them (see Peter Mueller, Brad Boyes and Wojtek Wolski).

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The importance of quality of competition

Eric T.
July 23 2012 09:11AM

Abstract

Quality of competition faced is often used qualitatively when assessing a player’s performance, but a quantitative adjustment has proven elusive. It has been widely presumed that the difficulty arises from stratification of playing time; if the players who face top competition are usually themselves good players, then we would not see facing top competition correlating with poor results.

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Nation Radio - July 21, 2012

NationRadio
July 22 2012 10:46AM

The on-going Shea Weber drama is making the deep summer a bit more interesting than it would have been otherwise. Will the Flyers snatch Weber away from Nashville and cripple the Predators in the the wake of possibly their most successful season ever? Will Poile and company match? If not, will the Preds GM turn to the demon drink in bitterness? Stay tuned to find out!

This week, Allan discussed the Weber issue (and much more!) with guests Tom Lynn, Harrison Mooney, Ryan PIke and Jonh Matisz.

This is Nation Radio.

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SHOULD POILE MATCH?

Jason Gregor
July 19 2012 01:02PM

Shea Weber is smiling knowing that he will make $110 million for the remainder of his NHL career. That's some pretty sweet financial security for Weber, but I wonder what Preds' GM David Poile is thinking right now?

Does he match or take four first-round picks?

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Accounting for Teammates Part 1: Corsi Rel and WOWY

Jared Lunsford
July 18 2012 05:56PM

 

 

The quality of teammates influences almost every stat in all major sports. This is particularly true of the base stats we tend to use, such as on-ice Corsi or Fenwick rate, because they don't just take something a player has done (score a goal) but also include what his teammates did while he was on the ice. The reason we opt for on-ice stats instead of individual is simple - on-ice stats allow us to measure, albeit noisily, all the contributions a player makes to the thing you are measuring.

How often do you hear an announcer say "that kind of play doesn't show up on the stat sheet, but was very important"? If you're measuring on-ice stats instead of individual stats, and you have a large enough sample, those small plays will show up. The trick is accounting for teammate quality, or at the very least taking it into consideration.

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