September 14 2012 02:56PM
In the first part one of the series, we looked Flames forwards shot rates, mostly with a view to putting the top guys rates in context, both from a team and league perspective. It took me three tries and some helpful comments to ultimately get the chart right, but I blame excel for that.
The follow-up builds on that base to illustrate the effect of possession on individual shot (and goal rates) at even strength as well as gross on-ice totals and ultimately goal differential. This exercise puts some flesh on the bones of corsi/possession theory for those who wonder about the practical applications of that sort of advanced analysis.
September 14 2012 09:10AM
This is Part 2 in a series on the winners and losers under the current NHL CBA. For all the preamble see Part 1 here.
In first post, I examined at how NHL revenues have changed over the six years prior to and after the 2004-05 lockout. In Part 2, I take a look at Player Expenses and the resulting Gross Income, over the same time period.
September 12 2012 03:07PM
(This was originally published at NHLNumbers, but I felt it warranted wider distribution. The rest of the series will be published at NHLNumbers.)
So, just why are we on the brink of yet another NHL lockout? This graph provides a pretty good explanation.
But not many are really digging into the financial ins and outs of the NHL's internal economy. Instead, there's plenty of finger pointing going on between the two sides, by the media, and among the fans. Especially the rabble on Twitter, whose "uninformed ramblings" are inconsequential to the outcome, according to NHL deputy commissioner, Bill Daly. And in truth, he's quite right. He just doesn't have to be so rude about it.
But that's for another post on another day with altogether more amateurly hand-drawn charts. Today we're sticking with good old Excel as we go inside the NHL's finances; or at least a reasonable facsimile thereof, as compiled by our good friends at Forbes in their annual list of NHL team valuations. What do the financial performance metrics tell us about what differentiates the winners from the losers in today's NHL?
September 11 2012 09:53AM
The New York Islanders have been one of the worst teams in the NHL over the past five seasons, finishing with less than 80 points and dead last in their division each and every time. This is, at least in part, intentional, but it's not hard to see why fans might be frustrated after five years of losing. Just look at these comments from Garth Snow in November of 2009:
I don't use that word rebuild. We're trying to make the playoffs and win a Stanley Cup like every other team. We don't go in with the mindset that losing is acceptable, and when that word is used, sometimes winning doesn't matter. I don't think I've used that word too much and if I have, it's been very limited. We're trying to win every hockey game we play in. The group that we have in that locker room, it may be young, but that doesn't mean it can't have success.
Three losing seasons later, Garth Snow remains at the helm, and he's quite a bit less leery about using the word rebuild to describe the 2009-10 season:
If we can move prospects to get a player that is going to come in and going to help us and get us where we want to be, we’re going to make that move. It’s a situation where we’ve gone through a rebuild, we have one of the best prospect pools in the NHL, so now it’s an easier decision for me to make moves to get us help immediately.
That comment was made in June of 2012, just before the draft and the opening of unrestricted free agency. So have the Islanders made the necessary moves to compete for a playoff spot, or are we going to hear more about how deep the prospect pool is this time next year?
September 10 2012 09:34AM
With the possible exception of the 2012 Stanley Cup Champion Los Angeles Kings, the Pittsburgh Penguins have the strongest outlook, both for the (2012-)2013 season and beyond. The main reasons are obvious - Crosby is signed long term, Malkin and Letang through 2013-2014 and James Neal through the 2015-2016 season. After failing in the Sutter and Parise sweepstakes, and a couple offseason moves to be discussed shortly, GM Ray Shero even has some cap room to play with.