Score-Adjusted Fenwick and Remaining Strength of Schedule

Travis Yost
January 13 2014 02:02PM


As far as I'm aware, the only NHL-based strength of schedule stuff around the internet can be found through Jeff Sagarin's ratings over at USA Today. Problem, of course, is that goals and goal differentials are great to look at if you want to know why a team currently sits where they do in the standings; it does far less to assist in future forecasting.

Knowing what we know about the predictive value of Score-Adjusted Fenwick (and the fact that it's still not automated anywhere on the internet), I went ahead and compiled the number for each NHL team, accurate through January 14, 2014. Then, I went ahead and compiled strength of schedules based on the average Score-Adjusted Fenwick each club will see through the rest of the season.

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Young Players and Corsi%

Travis Yost
December 16 2013 01:42PM


I've been thinking a fair bit about the structure of the National Hockey League and how regularly we sort of see young guys who probably aren't ready for the show being foisted into action. I think, a lot of the time, a coaching staff just wants to see how far along a young player is before shipping him out. In other instances, guys are kept around. Far too often, it's probably not in the best interest of the team, especially if they're trying to win hockey games.

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Just How Bad are the Toronto Maple Leafs?

Travis Yost
December 13 2013 11:02AM





A couple of months ago, I put together a post here briefly discussing the 2013 Buffalo Sabres -- a team that the data, at the time, suggested would be one of the worst hockey teams in the Behind the Net era. This team was out-pacing a 2007 Atlanta Thrashers team that was widely regarded as the worst possession team assembled in the last seven or so years, and the competition wasn't particularly close.

A funny thing has happened, though ...

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Just How Bad are the Buffalo Sabres?

Travis Yost
November 04 2013 02:12PM

The 2007-2008 Atlanta Thrashers are generally regarded as the worst team to play in the Behind the Net era. Their possession numbers / scoring-chance differentials were ghastly, and even the most inferior teams since then have failed to match Atlanta's abortive brand of hockey.

But this year, a significantly more formidable challenger to the throne of possession-dominated has emerged ...

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Six-Year FenwickClose%

Travis Yost
September 20 2013 11:58AM




Behind the Net has always been an invaluable resource for checking in on team data, particularly for metrics like Fenwick Close -- a shot-attempt differential that mitigates the damage often inflicted by score effects in hockey games. Unfortunately, the data is usually tabled by season, and it's sometimes difficult to jump back and forth between seasons, particularly when looking at improvement or decline in performance. 

Below, I've compiled the FenwickClose% data for each NHL team, sorted by conference, and dropped into a graph that's not particularly friendly to the color-blind, like myself. I've also grabbed a hold of the biggest one-year risers/fallers, something I think speaks a bit about coaching in today's game. I think it's a nice little tool to gaze at, especially if you want to get a quick grasp of the true best/worst teams of the last six years. 

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