January 31 2014 02:50AM
For those of you unawares, Dimitri Filipovic and I have a running bet each week during the slate of Saturday games. The loser must watch a game of the winner's choosing... and record scoring chances. This week, I had the pleasure of watching the Phoenix Coyotes and the Buffalo Sabres. It was the teams' first meeting since #BUTTGOAL, but, alas, there was to be no legendary moment during the rematch. The only somewhat interesting sequence was when rookie referee Trevor Hanson got hit in the face with a puck after the ricochet off the crossbar from an Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot.
The Sabres won 3-2, but obviously didn't deserve the victory, being out-shot 40-28. ExtraSkater page for the game is here, and the scoring chances are below.
January 25 2014 06:28PM
The Montreal Canadiens have had an awful Fenwick Close % for the last while, and, well, it doesn't look like that's going to get any better against Washington. It takes a certain kind of awful to have as many shots as your adversary has goals midway through the second period, but, hey, at least it isn't Randypuck*.
* - Does "Randypuck" refer to Randy Carlyle or Randy Cunneyworth, these days?
December 05 2013 02:48PM
Teams that outshoot their opponents have won 52.4% of games this season. #qualitynotquantity— THE STATS GUY (@TH2NSTATSGUY) December 5, 2013
TH2NSTATSGUY is stating, at first, something that is fact. Despite numbers guys' focus on shots, over the course of a game, the team that outshoots the opposition won't win every game. In fact, they should win less than half of the games.
If TH2NSTATSGUY were really interested in manipulating numbers to make his point, he'd have pointed out that between 2008 and 2012, so five complete, 82-game seasons, teams that out-shoot have combined for a 2982-2272-642 record, and teams that have been out-shot have combined for a 2914-2232-750 record.
Look at games in regulation, and that means teams that have been out-shot have won 2272 of games decided in regulation, and lost 2232. That's under 50%. Why, then, would we focus on shot statistics?
November 14 2013 11:20AM
TSN flashed its projection for the Canadian Olympic roster last night, and while there are players to complain about, as always, when you're stacking 30 capable players onto a 23-man roster, there's going to be disagreement. You can quibble with Patrice Bergeron being off the team in favour of Jeff Carter, quibble with Martin St. Louis not making the cut, or quibble with the logic that Chris Kunitz is the only left winger in the world that plays well next to Sidney Crosby.
But the defence is where I have the biggest issue. Currently, TSN has P.K. Subban, the reigning Norris Trophy winner, on the team's "fifth pairing", effectively as a bubble player. Why?
September 30 2013 08:53AM
Cover of the .pdf version
The 2013-2014 Hockey Prospectus Annual is a book much different in style and content than the 2013 Hockey Abstract written by Robert Vollman. The Abstract was Vollman's general look at where statistical hockey analysis is in the year 2013, while Prospectus focuses on teams and players, and less on theory.
The writing is primarily done by Vollman, but there are many familiar names that pop up if you read often about hockey metrics online, such as Adam Gretz, Ryan Wagman and Corey Sznajder. With Vollman writing up many of the essays introducing teams and players, it's no surprise that the tome is heavily stocked with player usage and performance charts.