December 05 2013 02:48PM
Teams that outshoot their opponents have won 52.4% of games this season. #qualitynotquantity— THE STATS GUY (@TH2NSTATSGUY) December 5, 2013
TH2NSTATSGUY is stating, at first, something that is fact. Despite numbers guys' focus on shots, over the course of a game, the team that outshoots the opposition won't win every game. In fact, they should win less than half of the games.
If TH2NSTATSGUY were really interested in manipulating numbers to make his point, he'd have pointed out that between 2008 and 2012, so five complete, 82-game seasons, teams that out-shoot have combined for a 2982-2272-642 record, and teams that have been out-shot have combined for a 2914-2232-750 record.
Look at games in regulation, and that means teams that have been out-shot have won 2272 of games decided in regulation, and lost 2232. That's under 50%. Why, then, would we focus on shot statistics?
November 14 2013 11:20AM
TSN flashed its projection for the Canadian Olympic roster last night, and while there are players to complain about, as always, when you're stacking 30 capable players onto a 23-man roster, there's going to be disagreement. You can quibble with Patrice Bergeron being off the team in favour of Jeff Carter, quibble with Martin St. Louis not making the cut, or quibble with the logic that Chris Kunitz is the only left winger in the world that plays well next to Sidney Crosby.
But the defence is where I have the biggest issue. Currently, TSN has P.K. Subban, the reigning Norris Trophy winner, on the team's "fifth pairing", effectively as a bubble player. Why?
September 30 2013 08:53AM
Cover of the .pdf version
The 2013-2014 Hockey Prospectus Annual is a book much different in style and content than the 2013 Hockey Abstract written by Robert Vollman. The Abstract was Vollman's general look at where statistical hockey analysis is in the year 2013, while Prospectus focuses on teams and players, and less on theory.
The writing is primarily done by Vollman, but there are many familiar names that pop up if you read often about hockey metrics online, such as Adam Gretz, Ryan Wagman and Corey Sznajder. With Vollman writing up many of the essays introducing teams and players, it's no surprise that the tome is heavily stocked with player usage and performance charts.
July 16 2013 10:31AM
Regardless of what you call them, there are going to be a lot of people that simply don't want to adopt certain statistics. There's a small push to rename the stats we have now—Corsi, PDO, Fenwick, whatever—to more user-friendly acronyms that explain better what the statistic details.
I don't think that's a particularly wise thing to do. There are already thousands of people that read #fancystats articles and don't keep up with the day-to-day backroom arguing between hockey's online group of statistical analysts, that mostly play out on Twitter. I think "Corsi" will be more intuitive the more it's used and the first time that a smart network host or personality decides to make use of it on-air.
July 12 2013 11:56AM
Some discussion on Twitter early Friday afternoon after Ilya Kovalchuk's Hall of Fame candidacy in the wake of his surprise retirement from the National Hockey League. It's worth noting that Kovalchuk's career is not quite over yet: he's still 30 years old and has a few real good productive years left in Russia and probably a couple of Olympic games left in him as a real key contributor. Without the NHL playoffs to restrict him, I can see him being a very key figure in Russia's World Championship bids each year as the European leagues are intelligent enough to end their seasons beach weather hits and players are freed up to go to the Worlds each year.
I'm a proponent "for" Kovalchuk. I think that his international resume, including two World Championship golds, and what's to come, will more than make up for his lack of playoff success at the NHL stage. Really, he's played just 32 playoff games, because he spent most of his North American career toiling away in Atlanta.