The "Dave Tippett effect"

Cam Charron
August 11 2012 08:33AM

 

If you followed my earlier article on the "Ken Hitchcock effect", you'd have maybe found what I did. A particularly elite coach like Hitchcock can possibly influence his goaltender's save percentage and make it a little better than the goalie normally expects. Now, the effect isn't great. I think a lot of people who took a look at St. Louis' goaltending this season can make the mistake of attributing all of the success of Brian Elliott and Jaroslav Halak to Hitchcock.

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Goaltenders with and without Ken Hitchcock

Cam Charron
July 17 2012 01:26PM

 

 

This has been cooking for quite some time, but I'm finally getting around to posting a little bit of data I've collected. In an effort to better understand goaltenders, I've compiled even strength save percentage numbers from NHL.com and have begun filing through them.

Jonathan Willis wrote a post about Dave Tippett and Ilya Bryzgalov over at Cult of Hockey where he concluded that a lot of goalies were prone to fluctuations in save percentage and that coaches can't really control a goaltender's save percentage. I was interested, because I'd been looking a bit at Ken Hitchcock's work.

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On the scoring chance project, and why it must continue

Cam Charron
June 28 2012 02:29PM

 

 

Whatever tendency certain players might have for driving their team to get more scoring chances than a simple shot differential predicts is small and swamped by random noise. This suggests tracking scoring chances isn't adding much information to the readily available shot differential numbers.

That's from Eric on this very blog earlier this week. I'm willing to believe that, too. Over the course of the season, when I was tracking chances for Vancouver, I found that when the Canucks out-chanced a team, they were really not in a position to win the game all the time.

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Boston Bruins re-sign Chris Kelly

Cam Charron
June 11 2012 04:44PM

Stop me if you've heard this one: a National Hockey League team overpaid for a bottom six role player. Granted, Chris Kelly had a 20-goal season, a career-high, but he also "led" the NHL in PDO and had a 16.3% shooting rate. Essentially, his percentages, and his age (32 next season) probably indicate that future success from Kelly is a bad bet.

This didn't stop the Bruins from signing Kelly to a four-year deal worth $12M.

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Cutting corners: don't spend money on goalies

Cam Charron
June 04 2012 08:33AM

 

The average playoff team this past season won 45.8 games and earned a team overall even strength save percentage of .921.

The average non-playoff team won just 35.5 games, probably because they only got .914 goaltending.

Obviously, goaltending is the absolute equalizer in hockey, and average teams ought to pay more for it to become "good" teams. Toronto, Columbus, Edmonton, Winnipeg, all ought to make finding the right goaltender a #1 priority this offseason and take a step forward?

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