Selection Bias, Methodologies and Outcomes

Kent Wilson
July 23 2013 10:30AM



By: Patrick D. (SnarkSD) of Fear the Fin


When it comes to statistical analysis the population of interest is everything. Outcomes only apply to the population in the study. Furthermore, any manipulation of the population adds bias to the study. Sometimes this is obvious, but other times it might hide behind a curtain which isn’t obvious, even if we apply tests of statistical significance. That is why methodology is important. In an effort not to bore you, let’s first discuss the more pertinent issue; selection bias, and return to methodology in the end of the article.

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Top-30 Draft Prospect NHL Equivalencies

Kent Wilson
May 08 2013 09:52AM



Before we begin breaking down individual scouting reports for the various first round hopefuls I decided to survey the entire field from a high level using NHL equivalencies (NHLE). For those unfamiliar, NHLE is a method that corrects for league quality relative to the NHL, allowing us to compare kids across various leagues.

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Hockey's Structure and Incentive Problem

Kent Wilson
March 08 2013 03:52PM



Yesterday I discussed some of the entrenched misperceptions about statistical analysis in hockey and why they are misguided. Today, in a post called "Hockey's Counting Problem", Cam Charron looked at some of the significant obstacles standing in the way of effective, evidence-based analysis truly getting a foothold in the NHL's upper offices.

Two challenges he touches on that I want to discuss in greater depth are top-down vs bottom-up processes and the clash between long-term decision making and short-term incentives.

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Hitting, Shot Differentials and Variance

Kent Wilson
March 07 2013 01:10PM

A couple of things running through my head between Flames games today. The first topic has to do with hitting and winning versus shooting and winning. The second topic is on how advanced analysis in hockey is gaining prominence (but is still obviously misunderstood).

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The Budweiser Red Light

Kent Wilson
February 25 2013 11:52AM


By now most of have heard of this new Budweiser red light thing. For those of you living under a rock (or who PVR every game and zip through commercials), Bud has come up with a replica goal light which you can sync with your favorite team, install in your house, and have it go off every time your club scores. IT'S LIKE ACTUALLY BEING AT THE GAME. Especially if you like to have belligerent drunk friends over to watch the match with (err, drunk ON BUDWEISER of course. Enjoy responsibly and all that).

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