Nations UFA Frenzy Live Chat
Kent Wilson
July 01 2012 09:47AM
Join us at 12pm MST (10am EST) to criticize, mock or applaude all the big additions and/or mistakes NHL GM's will make today.
Asking the Right Questions - The Imprecise and Unattainable
Kent Wilson
June 29 2012 02:01PM
"Not many people have grace."
"Well, you know, grace is a tough one. I like to think I have a little grace. Not as much as Jackie O...."
"You can't have a little grace. You either have grace or you don't."
"Okay, fine. I have no grace."
"And you can't acquire grace."
"Well, I have no intention of getting grace."
"Grace isn't something you can pick up at the market."
"Alright, alright, look, I don't have grace, I don't want grace, I don't even say grace, okay?"
- Seinfeld
Previously we discussed how asking the wrong questions is the first misstep management of lackluster teams can take in the off-season, with a particular focus on being skeptical of small outbursts of success amidst a general sea of mediocrity. This time around, I want to look at how fans and decision makers can get wrapped up in psychoanalyzing their players or agonizing over fuzzy, non-specific but apparently plausible factors.
Asking the Right questions - Beware Small Samples
Kent Wilson
June 28 2012 04:52PM
(This is part one of a three part series that was originally published in April. With free agency season approaching, we figured it was worth a re-post here on NHLNumbers.)
It occured to me recently, after watching Brian Burke bloviate, Jay Feaster deflect and Steve Tambellini ramble during their respective year-end press conferences, that the true issue facing mediocre (or worse) teams is not whether an executive has all the answers - it's if he has the wherewithal to ask the right questions.
Putting Mark Jankowski's Performance In Context
Kent Wilson
June 25 2012 12:19PM
The single biggest issue with the Mark Jankowsi selection by the Calgary Flames is the challenge of correctly putting his performance at Stanstead college in proper context. Both qualitatively and quantitatively: when viewing a player, his abilities are naturally gauged against those he is competing against - there are many all-star AHLers who are entirely ordinary in the NHL. Many high scoring juniors don't make it as professionals in the AHL, etc. In short, the lesser the league, the easier it is to look like a star.
Assessing Skill, Risk and the Erik Karlsson Contract
Kent Wilson
June 20 2012 08:41AM
Yesterday when the Erik Karlsson contract was announced, but before any numbers were divulged, my immediate reaction was "the Senators are going to overpay". It was a somewhat glib, but it's a gut feel developed from watching NHL GM's overreact to splashy offensive seasons for years. In addition, as a Flames fan, I suffered through Dion Phaneuf's metamorphosis from "perenial Norris candidate to!" to "uh, this contract is an albatross" in the space of a couple seasons. I learned the painful lesson that even in younger players, extrapolating an upward trend line in linear fashion is a fraught with peril.
There's no question Erik Karlsson is a talented offensive defenseman. And there's no argument that what he accomplished last season was extraordinary. But at $45.5M over seven years, the Senators are taking on an enormous amount of risk.
