September 14 2012 02:56PM
In the first part one of the series, we looked Flames forwards shot rates, mostly with a view to putting the top guys rates in context, both from a team and league perspective. It took me three tries and some helpful comments to ultimately get the chart right, but I blame excel for that.
The follow-up builds on that base to illustrate the effect of possession on individual shot (and goal rates) at even strength as well as gross on-ice totals and ultimately goal differential. This exercise puts some flesh on the bones of corsi/possession theory for those who wonder about the practical applications of that sort of advanced analysis.
September 04 2012 04:18PM
During the previous CBA fight, the owners side basically won the PR battle thanks to a number of factors including a weak Canadian dollar, profligate spending by big markets, suffering Canadian franchises and a complicit press.
August 28 2012 10:09AM
Despite missing the playoffs in each of the prior two seasons, last year began with a glimmer of hope for Flames fans - the club went on to be one of the hottest teams in the league in the wake of Darryl Sutter's ouster in 2011-12. So although new GM Jay Feaster only made a few nominal changes to the line-up in the summer of 2012, the feeling was the organization would bloom now that it wasn't operating under the dour cloud of Sutter's baleful glare.
Unfortunately, the second half run in 2012 was mostly a mirage. The Flames were (and remain) a fundamentally flawed club who are good enough to compete for a playoff spot, but several steps behind the true contenders in the league. The current construction of the team also makes a real step forward in the near future unlikely; in fact, with an aging core and lackluster collection of players in or near their prime, the Flames will probably continue to trend downwards.
July 18 2012 01:40PM
By: Stephen Cooper
Ever since Gabe Desjardins calculated the first NHL scoring equivalencies from NHL feeder leagues, the use of NHLE has been standard for “fancystat” analysis of prospect players. The original system has been refined by many, including Bruce Peter of Puck Worlds and Rob Vollman of Puck Prospectus. But the basic system of looking at only goals and points on a per game basis has remained essentially the same since the venerable and terrifying Desjardins made his first foray on the subject.
July 13 2012 12:19PM
(This series was originally published at FlamesNation)
In previous entries in this series, we've discussed how GM's and coaches can fall victim to certain fallacies that result in bad decision paths. In part one, we looked at mistaking correlation for causation in small sample sizes and fabricating narratives to explain randomness. In part two, the topic was overly weighting the effect of vague, unquantifiable factors in players and teams.
I want to expand on that latter point this time around to cover how player categorization plus qualitative scouting reports can lead folks sometimes to value style over content.