July 18 2012 01:40PM
By: Stephen Cooper
Ever since Gabe Desjardins calculated the first NHL scoring equivalencies from NHL feeder leagues, the use of NHLE has been standard for “fancystat” analysis of prospect players. The original system has been refined by many, including Bruce Peter of Puck Worlds and Rob Vollman of Puck Prospectus. But the basic system of looking at only goals and points on a per game basis has remained essentially the same since the venerable and terrifying Desjardins made his first foray on the subject.
July 13 2012 12:19PM
(This series was originally published at FlamesNation)
In previous entries in this series, we've discussed how GM's and coaches can fall victim to certain fallacies that result in bad decision paths. In part one, we looked at mistaking correlation for causation in small sample sizes and fabricating narratives to explain randomness. In part two, the topic was overly weighting the effect of vague, unquantifiable factors in players and teams.
I want to expand on that latter point this time around to cover how player categorization plus qualitative scouting reports can lead folks sometimes to value style over content.
July 04 2012 12:18PM
A day or two after Olli Jokinen signed with the Winnipeg Jets, I saw a lot of chatter about this last 15-games or so amongst fans and pundits on twitter. The big Fin had something of a comeback season last year, scoring 61-points (second on the team) but there's no question he had a dreadful final quarter - starting March 13, he managed just three points in the last 13 games and was a cumulative -14.
That being the Flames "stretch drive" for the playoffs, there was a lot of speculation about Jokinen's health and character to explain his horrible downturn in results. The truth is, however, one doesn't need to turn to health or character issues to sort things out - Jokinen merely hit a dry patch.
July 01 2012 09:47AM
Join us at 12pm MST (10am EST) to criticize, mock or applaude all the big additions and/or mistakes NHL GM's will make today.
June 29 2012 02:01PM
"Not many people have grace."
"Well, you know, grace is a tough one. I like to think I have a little grace. Not as much as Jackie O...."
"You can't have a little grace. You either have grace or you don't."
"Okay, fine. I have no grace."
"And you can't acquire grace."
"Well, I have no intention of getting grace."
"Grace isn't something you can pick up at the market."
"Alright, alright, look, I don't have grace, I don't want grace, I don't even say grace, okay?"
Previously we discussed how asking the wrong questions is the first misstep management of lackluster teams can take in the off-season, with a particular focus on being skeptical of small outbursts of success amidst a general sea of mediocrity. This time around, I want to look at how fans and decision makers can get wrapped up in psychoanalyzing their players or agonizing over fuzzy, non-specific but apparently plausible factors.