Fixing the NHL’s wonky hit statistics

Jonathan Willis
June 06 2012 08:44AM

Taking the NHL’s official real time statistics at face value, we come across some astonishing things. For instance, the Chicago Blackhawks are more than 50% more physical on the road than at home. Perhaps they’re showing off for the home fans, but a more likely explanation is that the home scorer is more generous counting hits than road scorers are (this seems especially plausible given that home scorers dramatically over count both giveaways and takeaways for the home side as well).

How do we make the data usable?

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Can the New Jersey Devils overcome their 0-2 deficit in the Stanley Cup Finals?

Jonathan Willis
June 04 2012 04:16PM

The New Jersey Devils are in real trouble.

According to NHL.com, on 44 occasions a team has won both the first and second games of the Stanley Cup Finals. Forty-one times, the team with that 2-0 advantage in the Finals goes on to win the Stanley Cup – a 93.2 percent success rate.

Can they manage the comeback?

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Percentages vs. Timing

Jonathan Willis
June 03 2012 02:37PM

Image courtesy of Wikimedia Commons; own work produced by Resolute.

One of the most frequent counterarguments to any percentage statistic – whether it be special teams’ effectiveness, save percentage, or something else – is the notion that overall percentage matters less than careful timing.

It’s an inane argument.

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Dominik Hasek wants to play in the NHL again

Jonathan Willis
May 27 2012 08:09PM

It’s hard to believe, but a 47-year old Dominik Hasek is once again pursuing a job as an NHL goaltender.

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The Los Angeles Kings: Road Warriors

Jonathan Willis
May 25 2012 12:42PM

While it is fair to say that no team in the NHL post-season has been as dominant as the Los Angeles Kings, it’s even fairer to say that no playoff club has been as good on the road. At home, the Kings are 4-and-2 and have outscored the opposition 11-to-9. On the road, they’re 8-and-0 with a whopping 30-to-13 goal differential.

How are they doing it?

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