June 21 2012 10:14AM
In the latest installment of the NHLNumbers podcast, we start with a roundtable on the Stanley Cup Finals before getting to our three very important and higly informative guests (...seriously. Sorry if sounded sarcastic).
Our first VIP is probable first rounder Jacob Trouba, who was kind enough to take time out from helping out with national junior team goalie camp to talk to us about the US National Team Development Program, his skills and his plans after he goes in the first round of the draft this week.
June 20 2012 01:40PM
Source: Wikipedia Commons
Sample size issues have been known to cause crazy amounts of unwarranted hysteria. The 2011/12 season of Eric Nystrom should be Exhibit A in the coming years whenever a player comes out throwing bulls eyes to start a season out of nowhere.
There is usually a reason the career bottom six player with ten goals by Thanksgiving startles you. In your mind you know it shouldn't happen, but it has. Yet, you look up again and said player is getting more ice time, playing against increasingly more difficult competition, and given more defensive responsibility. All of this after said player was given away by one of the worst teams in hockey to help the team you follow get above the cap floor after the New York Rangers ditched Sean Avery (which, I realize, makes very little sense). Fans had to attempt to reconcile what they saw on the ice with what they intuitively knew about the player.
This is the story of how Eric Nystrom confused an entire fan base for several months while proving how fickle small sample sizes and the results-based analysis springing from them can be.
June 20 2012 11:03AM
About the project
For the last year, Geoff Detweiler has been tracking the Flyers' zone entries and I have been writing about them for Broad Street Hockey. This article will be the first in a series in which I hope to introduce a new audience to the work and inspire a few readers to try tracking other teams.
June 20 2012 08:41AM
Yesterday when the Erik Karlsson contract was announced, but before any numbers were divulged, my immediate reaction was "the Senators are going to overpay". It was a somewhat glib, but it's a gut feel developed from watching NHL GM's overreact to splashy offensive seasons for years. In addition, as a Flames fan, I suffered through Dion Phaneuf's metamorphosis from "perenial Norris candidate to!" to "uh, this contract is an albatross" in the space of a couple seasons. I learned the painful lesson that even in younger players, extrapolating an upward trend line in linear fashion is a fraught with peril.
There's no question Erik Karlsson is a talented offensive defenseman. And there's no argument that what he accomplished last season was extraordinary. But at $45.5M over seven years, the Senators are taking on an enormous amount of risk.
June 19 2012 11:09AM
Back when we thought the new divisional alignment was going to come into play, no team was happier about the proposed change than the Dallas Stars. How do I know that? Because they said so: "no team can be happier about the change than the Dallas Stars."