Eastern Conference: Line/Tier vs. Team Production

Travis Yost
August 02 2013 10:22AM



On Thursday, I took a look at how individual tiers for each Western Conference team performed relative to their team's overall production through even-strength adjusted Corsi. Today, the tiers of the Eastern Conference.

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Western Conference: Line/Tier v. Team Production

Travis Yost
August 01 2013 10:41AM




One of the elements of hockey analytics that I think is understudied is the midpoint between individual and team-level data. Line combinations change an awful lot over the course of an eighty-two game season. Even in forty-eight, we see coaches -- be it injury-related, performance-related, whatever -- continually juggle trios of forwards on a game-by-game deployment. For this reason, I think a lot of people unfortunately shy away from it.

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Machine Learning and Hockey: Is there a theoretical limit on predictions?

Josh W
August 01 2013 09:39AM

Graph from Arctic Ice Hockey 


In my previous work I was working on predictions in hockey, at the micro level of a single game, to determine who will win and who will lose. I was using Machine Learning techniques (or algorithmic modeling) and one thing I've noticed from my work, and from reading papers on other peoples material, is that for every sport there seems to be a prediction limit (that is different for every sport). This is what I want to explore; how much of the results that we see are based on luck, and is there a theoretical prediction limit in the NHL? 

In this post I will be focusing on the first question, what part of the standings is made up by luck?

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Reviewing the NHL Entry Draft - 2000 to 2008

July 31 2013 10:44PM

This is the third in a series of articles looking at the history of the NHL Entry Draft from 1979 to 2008. I have tabulated every pick made by every team during that time, selecting out the players who managed 200+ NHL games as draft successes. The initial look is a simple study wherein I credit a team with finding an NHL player, regardless of their draft position or impact on the NHL. The notable weaknesses of this approach are that it evens the playing field between the 3rd line journeyman winger and the franchise defenseman.

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2014 NHL Draft Consensus Top 25

Derek Zona
July 31 2013 11:46AM

Photo by Bri Weldon via Wikimedia Commons

It's early, but the 2014 NHL Draft is just 11 months away!  We don't have much data on the top players yet, and most of the relevant bits seem to come from the Ivan Hlinka Tournament.  One thing we do know is that the names involved in the early part of the draft in June are some of the best we've had in a long time:  Willie, Leon, Roland, Ivan, Joshua Ho-Sang, Kaspar, Oskar, Sonny, and Arkhip.  Toss in Rihards Bukarts for good measure and it's a great group of monikers.

The sources for the consensus list are Future Considerations, ISS, Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus.  Their rankings are weight by their accuracy in ranking previous drafts: Future Considerations' rankings carry the most weight as they were the most accurate prognosticator in the group. 

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