December 13 2012 11:24PM
It took a long time, but it looks like we're now at the final table in this high stakes game of poker that is the NHL CBA negotations.
And yes, this this is and always has been a heads up game. Neither you, nor I, nor any of the
tens of thousands tens of hundreds tens out there that organized or took part in sit-ins, petitions or protests have a seat at this table, despite the fact that both sides are playing with our money.
Although, is this really any different that the real world? I mean, this pretty much describes our government institutions, and even more so the professional gamblers on the investment banking circuit that nearly blew up the house of cards that is our global financial system.
But I digress. Let's have a look at where we are heading into this final round...
December 13 2012 02:55PM
Part of what I think contributes to the success of offensive starts like Jonathan Toews and the Sedin twins is the fact that they've had very dependable third lines behind them in recent years. I recently went to Behind the Net, parsed through ice time data for offensive zone start rate and quality of competition to see if there was a league-wide trend towards adopting a system where the third liners were given a higher level of importance.
Turns out, yes, actually, even over the last three years, it's very noticeable. In the 2009-2010 season, third and fourth liners were pretty interchangeable, playing against middling competition, usually in offensive zone situations. What's happened since then is that replacement-level players and fourth liners have seen less ice time, while first liners and third liners have picked up the bulk of the difference.
December 13 2012 10:23AM
We're at Day Number Who Cares of the NHL Lockout, slowly being driven mad by the back and forth of negotiations.
Luckily for us chattering class types the NHL and NHLPA have been deciding to leak the focus of the talks, which apparently now is contract limits. The NHL proposed limiting contracts to seven years for players who re-sign with the same team and five years for free agents. In his last press conference, Bill Daly said that contract limits are 'the hill [the NHL] will die on' in this CBA negotiation.
Donald Fehr argued in a memo to players that contract limits would effectively create a two-tiered system like the NBA - top players would get a higher percentage of the salary cap, leaving fewer dollars for the rest of the roster. Why are both sides arguing over this so fervently?
December 10 2012 12:05PM
The topic of how goalie age affects on-ice performance came up again last week, first with a post from Steve Burtch over at PPP, followed by a response from Eric T. here at NHLNumbers. Although Steve's post was about the Leafs' quest for an average goalie, he made the observation that "the correlation between goaltender performance and age is nil." Eric's main critique was that the analysis did not take into account "survivorship bias," that is: only the better goalies actually manage to stick around into their late 30s, so this will bias the observed performance of older goalies upward.
In an effort to further the debate, I would like to propose a methodology that controls for "survivorship bias," as well as an alternative way to account for systemic changes in the game that might impact save percentages on the whole.
December 10 2012 08:48AM
I've always felt pretty strongly about Tom Awad's now-two-year-old assertion that, absent something better, even-strength ice time is a pretty good proxy for overall player value.
His numbers bore that out. However, I suggested that we could better refine and increase predictability of even-strength ice time by expressing it as a percentage of the team's even-strength time in games the player played (a wordy way of describing 5v5%). Though it will probably be a post in-and-of-itself, 5v4% and 4v5% are both testing to be similarly positive refinements on those TOI metrics.
Rather than handle that today, I wanted to unveil a little idea that had been bouncing around my head for a while. I'll be damned if I can recall the post from Beyond the Box Score, the excellent baseball statistics web site, but they had a season preview a while back where they used radar plots of a number of metrics like OBP, Fangraphs' Baserunner rating, UZR/150 (something to that effect), and for each player on a given team their talent in those metrics filled a certain portion of the radar plot. The more you filled the radar plot, the better you were. Author Note: Having heard back from BtB's Justin Bopp, the creator of the Diamondview Composite Player Evaluation that inspired the Total Player Charts, I can put my agitation and accreditation worries to rest).
There's certainly room for doing this when the statistical hockey gods agree on a metric already (spoiler alert: they never will) - till that time I'm content to build a radar plot of three metrics, 5v5%, 5v4%, and 4v5%. In part, this is to represent player value, as well as where that value gets allocated (just even-strength, or powerplay and penalty kill as well). I'll call them Total Player Charts, or TPCs (which, it turns out, is also an acronym for all sorts of important ish)...you can do a lot of neat stuff with 'em.
Let's have a look.