Capitals vs. Bruins - Tracking puck possessions

Cam Charron
March 06 2013 12:31PM

There's been some talk about the importance of hitting in the hockey blogosphere lately. Most of it has come on Twitter in the wake of the Edmonton Oilers trading for Mike Brown and to whether or not Brown's hitting will make a lick of difference to the Oilers lineup.

My gut reaction is "no, no it won't". I did a big of leg-work in this post at the Backhand Shelf that showed "hits" "giveaways" and "takeaways" were subjective statistics that didn't really mean anything. Every scorer in every building has a different definition of a hit. What I wanted to see was whether actual hits lead to turnovers in any given game.

Read Article | 9 Comments

2013 NHL Mock Draft - Seth Jones Goes To Columbus

Derek Zona
March 05 2013 10:42AM

Ryan Murray
Will Kekalainen add Seth Jones to Ryan Murray on the blueline, or will he go with Drouin or MacKinnon?
Photo by: Fanny Schertzer, via Wikimedia Commons

Seth Jones has seperated himself from the pack and has become a strong be to be the first overall pick at the NHL Draft in June.  There's just one problem - the Blue Jackets drafted defender Ryan Murray last season at #2 overall after losing the draft lottery to the Edmonton Oilers.  Will Columbus take another blueliner or will Jarmo Kekalainen go with Nathan MacKinnon or the fast-rising Jonathan Drouin at #1 and leave Jones for the Buffalo Sabres?

Poor Columbus.  Just a month ago, they had three picks in the top 12 at #5, #8, and #12.  As the Rangers and Kings move up in the standings, those picks are falling through the first round.  Our Predictive Model shows the Jackets drafting #1, #19 and #21 now.

The mock draft uses the NHLNumbers Predictive Model and the NHL Numbers Consensus Top 100 List for the picks.  The sources for the consensus list are Bob McKenzieFuture ConsiderationsISSRyan KennedyCraig Button, Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus, and The Scouting Report.  Their rankings are weight by their accuracy in ranking previous drafts: Bob McKenzie's rankings carry the most weight as he's the most accurate prognosticator in the group.

Read Article | 6 Comments

PDO numbers by NHL team - Mar 4

Cam Charron
March 04 2013 04:52PM

PDO doesn't stand for anything, but that doesn't mean we can't learn anything from adding up the overall shooting and save percentages for a team at even strength. A layman's explanation for 'PDO' and why we use it can be found here over at the Backhand Shelf. Basically, if a team is playing with a PDO number way higher than 1.000, they're producing above their expected output. If a team is playing with a PDO number below 1.000, they're producing below their expected output. Over the course of a long season, the number will generally correct itself.

Read Article | 3 Comments

2013 NHL Draft Consensus - Seth Jones Takes Over, Jonathan Drouin Closes In

Derek Zona
March 04 2013 07:31AM

2011 nhl draft
Photo by Bri Weldon, via Wikimedia Commons

Seth Jones has separated himself from Nathan MacKinnon and Jonathan Drouin is closing in on MacKinnon. Meanwhile Aleksander Barkov is tearing up the Finnish leagues.

The sources for the consensus list are Bob McKenzie, Future Considerations, ISS, Ryan Kennedy, Craig Button, Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus, and The Scouting Report.  Their rankings are weight by their accuracy in ranking previous drafts: Bob McKenzie's rankings carry the most weight as he's the most accurate prognosticator in the group.

Read Article | 0 Comments

NHLNumbers Predictive Power Rankings, 3/3/13

Derek Zona
March 03 2013 09:39AM

Ray Emery
Photo by Leech44, via Wikimedia Commons

We're 40% of the way through the lockout-shortened 2013 season and three things are certain - Chicago, Anaheim, Boston and Montreal are in the playoffs; Columbus and Florida aren't; and the New York Islanders would be in the playoffs even if they had just average goaltending, like Minnesota.  

These rankings aren't presented as a look at the current standings or last couple of weeks' worth of performances.  Our goal is to build a predictive model that gives us a glimpse into the season-ending standings and first-round playoff matchups.  Our rankings aren't based solely on the current NHL standings, though points earned are a significant portion of the model, they are based on a number of underlying metrics so the rankings are constantly in flux. This week we've added remaining opponents in the hopes of building a better model.  Many have asked about how injuries are accounted for in the predictive model.  They aren't included - yet. 

We're still tweaking that model, so we're not quite ready to unveil it, but consider this NHLNumbers' current best effort at predicting the standings and playoff pairings at the end of the season.  One item of note - 38% of the game is luck, and we don't attempt to predict or model that 38%, and we don't plan to.

Read Article | 5 Comments