March 03 2013 09:39AM
Photo by Leech44, via Wikimedia Commons
We're 40% of the way through the lockout-shortened 2013 season and three things are certain - Chicago, Anaheim, Boston and Montreal are in the playoffs; Columbus and Florida aren't; and the New York Islanders would be in the playoffs even if they had just average goaltending, like Minnesota.
These rankings aren't presented as a look at the current standings or last couple of weeks' worth of performances. Our goal is to build a predictive model that gives us a glimpse into the season-ending standings and first-round playoff matchups. Our rankings aren't based solely on the current NHL standings, though points earned are a significant portion of the model, they are based on a number of underlying metrics so the rankings are constantly in flux. This week we've added remaining opponents in the hopes of building a better model. Many have asked about how injuries are accounted for in the predictive model. They aren't included - yet.
We're still tweaking that model, so we're not quite ready to unveil it, but consider this NHLNumbers' current best effort at predicting the standings and playoff pairings at the end of the season. One item of note - 38% of the game is luck, and we don't attempt to predict or model that 38%, and we don't plan to.
February 25 2013 11:52AM
By now most of have heard of this new Budweiser red light thing. For those of you living under a rock (or who PVR every game and zip through commercials), Bud has come up with a replica goal light which you can sync with your favorite team, install in your house, and have it go off every time your club scores. IT'S LIKE ACTUALLY BEING AT THE GAME. Especially if you like to have belligerent drunk friends over to watch the match with (err, drunk ON BUDWEISER of course. Enjoy responsibly and all that).
February 25 2013 09:14AM
PDO doesn't stand for anything, but that doesn't mean we can't learn anything from adding up the overall shooting and save percentages for a team at even strength. A layman's explanation for 'PDO' and why we use it can be found here over at the Backhand Shelf. Basically, if a team is playing with a PDO number way higher than 1.000, they're producing above their expected output. If a team is playing with a PDO number below 1.000, they're producing below their expected output. Over the course of a long season, the number will generally correct itself.
February 24 2013 10:51AM
After the jump: the Nation Network turns five, predicting the end-of-season standings, talking about dirty hits and franchise-defining trades, and lots more good stuff from the past week.
February 23 2013 10:51AM
Is this the leader of the best team in the league?
Photo by Michael Miller via Wikimedia Commons
Power rankings are no fun for any writer or editor. No matter the amount of effort or honesty involved in creating the rankings and slotting the teams, oversights happen and someone in every fanbase except the team ranked first overall will feel slighted and react like a toddler.
So we've set out to eliminate the effort by building a power rankings model based on underlying statistics and their predicative ability. Our rankings aren't based solely on the current NHL standings, though points earned are a portion of the model, they are based on a number of underlying metrics so the rankings are constantly in flux.
We're still tweaking the model, so we're not quite ready to unveil it, but consider this NHLNumbers' current best effort at predicting the standings and playoff pairings at the end of the season. One item of note - 38% of the game is luck, and we don't attempt to predict or model that 38%, and we don't plan to.