The Curious Case of the Unsigned Cody Franson

Cam Lewis
July 22 2015 08:30AM

It’s been three weeks and Cody Franson doesn’t have a contract. If you search his name on Google, you’ll be flooded with reports that the huge, offensive minded defenceman is speaking with teams all around the league. Most recent reports suggest he’s in talks with the Boston Bruins, who recently shipped their best blue-liner, Dougie Hamilton, to the Calgary Flames. And of course, there’s talk that he’s open to come back to the Toronto Maple Leafs, the team he spent the majority of his career with before being dealt back to the Nashville Predators, who drafted him 79th overall in 2005.

Other than Franson, all of the big name defencemen are off the market now. There are a few solid veterans, some potential reclamation projects, but all of the big names – Sekera, Martin, Green, Beauchemin — were locked up on the first day of free agency. So what’s the deal with Franson? Is it him? Are his demands too high for the calibre of player he is? There appears to be interest around the league, but for whatever reason, teams seem to be skeptical of handing out a fat contract for Franson’s services. 

That seems a little bizarre, because he may be the best defenceman of the entire bunch — and he still has room to improve. 

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Predicting Future NHL Scoring Success with NHLe Thresholds & Related Factors

Byron Bader
July 17 2015 12:00PM

NHL Equivalency (NHLe) is a formula used by some in the hockey analytics community to normalize scoring rates in different prospect feeder leagues. The object of finding a similar "score" for players across different leagues is to help project future NHL scoring/performance. It’s a method developed by Gabe Desjardins of a number of years ago and has been expanded upon by hockey analytics pioneers like Rob Vollman and Kent Wilson. Here's Gabe's original piece to give you a context if you're not fully versed in NHLe.

Previously, I looked at draft year NHLe and forwards drafted in the first round from 2005 to 2010. In that investigation, I found that of players who had scored a career 0.6 PPG or higher in the NHL (approximately 50 points or more a season) 22 of 32 in total had an NHLe of at least 34 in their draft year.  

In fact, of all the first round forwards who had an NHLe of 34 or more in their draft year, only five hadn’t scored at a rate of 0.6 PPG or higher in the NHL to that point, though all had already made the NHL. While draft year NHLe provides certain insights, I was curious how you could project future impactful point producers (0.6 PPG or higher) overall, beyond the 1st round and beyond a player’s draft year equivalency.  

The following analysis provides insights into the following questions:

  • Are there differences between players who score a high equivalency in their draft year compared to later on? 
  • Do elite scorers tend to hit certain NHLe thresholds (e.g., 30+ or 40+) more often and/or more frequently than average, replacement-level scorers and busts?
  • What impact does age have in hitting an equivalency threshold and future NHL success? 

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The Roundup

Nation World HQ
July 17 2015 07:00AM


Kesler's new contract and the Dave Nonis effect, Leafs salary cap situation, Flames new guys provide more options, what the numbers predict for Vancouver next season, Oilers interested in Seabrook, have no one to blame but themselves for Justin Schultz and more in this week's Roundup.

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Talent Left on the 2015 Draft Floor

Josh W
July 14 2015 02:02PM

Every year at the NHL Entry Draft a number of teams make really smart decisions on their picks (Islanders, Jets) while other teams seem to fall on their face (Bruins).  At the end of the 210 picks, inevitably there are players every year who are not chosen despite showing potential to be better than average picks.  This makes these players currently Unrestricted Free Agents and available to be signed to contracts by teams who feels they have potential.  

Looking back at the 2014 NHL Entry Draft, MoneyPuck used PCS to look back at those players who had a high chance of success at the NHL level.  (Un)surprisingly many were invited to teams camps and many went on to become important players on their teams, invited to World Juniors, and some were even signed to NHL teams.

With a current baseline of 8% of forwards and 5.6% of defencemen drafted move on to become NHL regulars, we can use PCS to look back at the 2015 draft and see players who should be invited to camps and are good bets to spend an ELC on.

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The Roundup

Nation World HQ
July 10 2015 06:30AM


Canucks front office moves, the Leafs re-sign Martin Marincin, the Oilers take Justin Schultz to arbitration, the Flames cap crunch and more in this week's Roundup.

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